563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

No idea how they worked the 11 weeks out but the NHS Trust I work for have told us the expected peak is 11 weeks away.

All these comments of ‘you do realise we have x amount of deaths a day or in March’ are really irrelevant. In response you do realise these Coronavirus deaths are as well as those usual deaths???

As a pp has said, Italy have levelled around 650-900 deaths per day for around a week, almost exactly 2 weeks after the whole country locked down.

Spain is starting to plateau, which took a bit longer than 2 weeks.

If our lockdown is working then we should see a levelling off in around 7-10 days. We won't peak and then decline much(at least not quickly), because we are not completely stopping transmission, in the way that only China and South Korea have managed to do so far.

That means perhaps around 1000 people per day dying until god knows when.

People with underlying health conditions are not life limited ffs! Has this misunderstanding not been addressed enough times yet! An underlying condition could be something a 30 year old could live another 50 years with.

If we are going to hit a peak.. It will be hard sharp uprise.
And yesterday the hospitals even in London had capacity still.

We are running about 2 weeks behind italy. Italy have still not quite hit their peak. We are in for some tragic shit times.

We also don’t have a strict lockdown. So many inessential services still working to protect the economy.

@BeetrootRocks

• BeetrootRocks

Amelie we don't execute people in the UK, thankfully. Be careful what you wish for.

WTAF are you on about? Please point out where I said ANYTHING about execution???

I imagine we will peak about 3 weeks after the Friday of pubs/clubs closing (due to all the idiots who went out partying like it was NYE) or 3 weeks from Mother's Day when people couldn't resist visiting granny.

Did I read correctly that this number is hospital deaths?

In other words there may be more outside the hospitals that are related to the virus?

Are Nursing Home deaths which must be substantial included in this number?

This is useful to understand the deaths here

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

I reckon we’re a couple of weeks away from the peak, it’ll probably be around the time after Easter hols

Peak? No. Another 7-10 days maybe.

If you seal people) families into their homes, they will die of starvation. It's a slower way to go, but it would still be an execution if enacted by the state.

And who gets to decide who lives and who dies.

It has been speculated for some time that the London peak will hit in and around Easter. With the rest of the country c2weeks behind. That will vary. The peak will be long and slow.

A June peak was an early estimation of when and how the virus would spread. It’s not part of the current models

~14 days from infection to symptoms +
~14-21 days from symptom to death (on average)

= 28 - 35 days from infection to death (again, on average)

The people who died today were likely infected somewhere around the end of February.

The average incubation for Covid 19 is not 14 days, it's 5 days. 14 days is the top end and is a small percentage.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incubation-period/

60 doctors have died in Italy. 60.

It's horrifying. We've now had four frontline doctors die.

I very much doubt it is the peak, closer to the start. Boris's idea of flattening the curve but Herd immunity seem to be completely contradictory. His herd immunity plan was just kind of let as many people as possible catch it. I expect this is just the start, we are at least a couple of weeks behind Italy and they haven't finished yet.

I think Amelie was being tongue in cheek, I doubt she was advocating for people to be welded into their homes and starved to death as a serious proposal.

Did you know in the Uk there are around 1,500 deaths a day. Without the virus.

Yes, this is just like normal. They build several temporary hospitals with thousands of beds to deal with a highly-contagious virus every year in the UK. And Birmingham airport turns into a morgue on a regular basis.

Please read BBC link I just posted it helps explain it all

Being a smoker is classed as 'an underlying health condition' apparently.

In the situation we are in, and with so many people shouting for army on the streets, reporting neighbours, and police acting past their remit

I really would take caution before assuming people aren't being a bit, if not entirely serious

@BeetrootRocks

• BeetrootRocks

If you seal people) families into their homes, they will die of starvation. It's a slower way to go, but it would still be an execution if enacted by the state

Don’t be so fucking ridiculous, they had food taken to them, it just stopped them walking out their front door

And who gets to decide who lives and who dies

Currently the fucking idiots who won’t just stay inside their own god damn house!

these are mostly life limited people

This is simply not true. Medically vulnerable to an emerging infection is not a synonym for decrepit, or frail, or life limited.

Some of us have conditions that in normal times are well managed and lead to no change in life expectancy nor restriction of activities (I was in marathon training until a couple of weeks ago)

Others who are frail or have life limiting conditions do not count as vulnerable in the CV context,

It’s sloppy wording to conflate the two, and it’s wrong to ‘other’ the medically vulnerable and (even if inadvertent) suggest their deaths don’t count as much