563 dead today, is this our peak?

[Whitefeather01]

Surely we have to be close to peaking??

No, I think the peak will be around Easter.

This weekend the weather is forecast to be sunny and warm, especially on Sunday, so I think a lot more people will go outside to parks, etc, and some people might well have garden parties/BBQs, as they will be getting very bored after 2 weeks of lockdown and won't be able to resist. Which means that the peak could remain high for 2 to 3 weeks as people become infected this weekend. Sadly, there will be a rise in the number of younger adults and children dying, which will then cause all the self absorbed teenagers/20 somethings to rethink their behaviour when they realise that they are not invincible, after all. That is when the penny will finally drop for them, that is what it will take.

It's very difficult. Many people criticised the govt for not taking these measures earlier, but whenever the measures were taken, it would always be the case that after 2 or 3 weeks a lot of people would stop complying, for many reasons to do with human nature.

about 3-4 weeks after lockdown started

@GoldenOmber that’s good to hear. I was told the 11 weeks from my manager a week after “lockdown” enforced whilst discussing staffing redeployment. I just want it over and done with as we all do so the thought of 11 weeks was even more depressing. I wondered whether it would be thinking about allowing us back out and a second wave hitting?

We are nowhere near peaking. It’s distressing and upsetting but people need to be realistic. We are going to make Italy’s numbers pale into comparison

unlikely given the shenanigans the weekend before last!

The tragic thing is that at least some of these deaths could have been prevented. Do people think they’re invincible?!

Our local CCG has (internally) estimated our county’s peak to be mid May.

The governor of my state and the state's medical director have estimated that we'll peak around mid-May. You all are a couple weeks ahead of us. My governor was pretty on top of it, though. We closed schools, bars, and restaurants several days before you all did.

Study today suggests that lockdown measures are working, which would mean the epidemic will be declining from now on (although it’ll take a few weeks for that to show up in deaths figures): www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2020/reproduction-number-covid-19-could-be-below-one-uk-lockdown

Dr Yvonne Doyle stressing dangers of upticks in transport use in last couple of days especially in London, on daily briefing from Number 10.

Uptick in motor transport.

It’s not impossible we’re close to the peak — there were requests for the sick to isolate quite some time back now.

This might have already been mentioned but these are the figures of people that have died WITH the virus right? Not necessarily FROM the virus? So whilst the majority have probably died because of the effects of the virus, some will have passed anyway but the virus was in their system at the time?

There are so many varying statistics and predictions on this thread but based on what? So many seem made up.

This is not a lockdown.

Just over 1% of NHS workers tested, says questioning journalist. Dr Doyle of PHE faffs. Alok Sharma is 'clear' about everything in the way that Theresa May was 'clear' about Brexit ... ffs. Just admit you fucked up already.

@Pleasedontdrawonyoursister yes that’s what I said in my post. The numbers will be skewed and we will probably never know the true number of deaths caused as a direct result

@wonkylegs 💕 you DH & his colleagues are amazing & very very much appreciated. But the families are ‘unsung hero’s’. My heart goes out to you having to see him go off out into that everyday. I hope he has decent Ppe now at least
Take good care of yourselves 🌷

Not even close. My hospital is currently anticipating their peak to be around 13 April so we are some way off. (This is based on bed occupancy modelling from data from London)

underlying health conditions, these are mostly life limited people

Absolutely not true. Why do people think this?

I have underlying health conditions but my life is not limited in any way.

Nowhere near.

And know that the more effective the lockdown measures are the later and lower the peak will be.

Nowhere near it I'm afraid. There's a while to go before it gets better. The UK is only just beginning to see big numbers.

I agree with others, we're nowhere near peaking yet and when we do our figures will make it look like Italy got of lightly. The Johnson led government failed to take it seriously, failed to prepare, failed to take the right action at the right time and thousands upon thousands of people are going to lose their lives as a result of Johnson's incompetence.

When this is all over the government needs to be held to account over the decisions they took, or failed to take, and the lives lost as a result. But I fear that people will be so relieved it's over and that they survived that they'll forget those who didn't.

We're following italys curve... Their peak will be ours. I'm going to hazard a guess if they say we're to do well to keeping it under 20k...peak must be a few thousand or 2..

Instead of asking this question, we should be asking how we ended up here, with 563 souls lost yesterday. This was not inevitable.

And know that the more effective the lockdown measures are the later and lower the peak will be.

Could you explain the reasoning there? My impression is that this is true for mitigation measures (eg, what we were doing right before lockdown). But the point of lockdown is to drive the rate of new infections down, not just to slow it. So if it’s really effective, then the rate of new infections goes down immediately from the start of lockdown, and the peak of deaths is a few weeks after that.

It takes about 3 weeks from onset of illness to icu admittance, so being only a week into lock down... I think 5-6 weeks is more likely (if we are being optimistic about it).