Coronavirus and herd immunity: Best interview I've seen

[primeria]

This Newsnight interview with a professor from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine makes a lot of sense:

Politics aside (and no, I didn't vote for them), I do think the Government's measured approach is the right one.

Please post this on the dedicated Coronavirus thread.

Do people think hiding threads about the virus on a special board means it's going to go away? Many thousands of us are going to die.

That video is excellent.

That's excellent, thanks for sharing.

This is the kind of sensible talk that everyone should hear.

I saw this last night. But doesn't ever say that we will in fact become immune to CV-19 once we've had it, does he?

He implies it.

But that is different from saying with certainty or proving that we become immune. Because there is much evidence to say that the virus is biphasal or can remain dormant and reoccur, much like coldsores or shingles.

Way too many gaps in our knowledge and understanding at the mo. I'm no expert, but given those gaps herd immunity seems like a risky strategy.

He'd like to put the old, sick and vulnerable in the north of Scotland......but he can't (bites lip)..... What is going to happen to them then? No one is saying. Are they being sacrificed for the greater good?

NellyGrace, perhaps he can't be certain yet, but we have herd immunity to other coronaviruses, and the reduction in transmission in China (only a handful of new cases a day now being recorded) suggests humans do develop herd immunity to this one too.

What is going to happen to them then? No one is saying. Are they being sacrificed for the greater good?

No, that's silly. We should help to protect them by not visiting them with our snotty kids in tow.

If it's like the flu it will mutate every year and a new vaccine will have to be rolled out. You will only be immune to the strain you had the year before?

Primeria, my child is one of the snotty kids and is immune suppressed like many thousands of others. Even the elderly have been to not to isolate themselves atm. and we have been told to carry on as usual.

Harpingdon, flu isn't a coronavirus. There are lots of coronaviruses. They're one of several types of virus that cause the common cold. The existing one don't have such a severe impact because we already have herd immunity to them.

told

His message is contradictory - the measures (what measures) the govt announced yesterday do nothing to delay - they’re actually saying business as usual until you feel in, then stay home for a week (without testing therefore no recording of numbers which will make it LOOK like it’s delaying) and nothing else. The fact that he mentions the elderly and vulnerable speaks volumes about them intending to just let this roll. Ffs I am SO sick of this govt treating people like fucking idiots.

But coronaviruses also mutate?

I agree OP, I thought he was very credible.

I agree - I found this an informative and actually quite reassuring interview. It feels like perhaps a long-term view is being taken, which is essential because this isn’t just going to go away after a few weeks, regardless of government interventions.

Bumping, because everyone should watch this.

Are they being sacrificed for the greater good?

No. What he's saying is that there is no way of stopping most people (80-90%) from getting it, so they are trying to lower the death rate and lower the number of vulnerable people who get it.

Way too many gaps in our knowledge and understanding at the mo. I'm no expert, but given those gaps herd immunity seems like a risky strategy.

What's the other option? Given what we do know, this stratgy seems to be the least bad option.

Surely acting like we've got it means self isolating??

He'd like to put the old, sick and vulnerable in the north of Scotland......but he can't (bites lip)..... What is going to happen to them then?

It was clear he wishes he could put them in the north of Scotland to protect them from this virus while the young and healthy whose bodies can cope with it catch it and we develop herd immunity.

Surely acting like we've got it means self isolating??

Precisely.

without testing therefore no recording of numbers which will make it LOOK like it’s delaying

He's saying they are only testing the very sick, so the numbers will be 2-4 weeks old, but there will be data. There simply aren't enough testing kits and sending the healthy sick to have blood tests would increase transmission.

But coronaviruses also mutate?

Any living thing can mutate. Even though we have herd immunity to a lot of viruses that cause colds and flu, we still get colds and flu every year, because existing viruses mutate and new viruses appear. Most of them are mild, but every so often a more vicious one comes along, like the current one. SARS was another example a few years ago and Spanish Flu in 1918.

No, he's saying separate the vulnerable so they are safe. Let everyone else get it, because they will anyway and it's unlikely to do most people significant harm.

He's saying he would "like" to separate the vulnerable people but "can't" that is the problem with herd immunity, for even 60% coverage a lot of people are going to have to die.