Coronavirus and herd immunity: Best interview I've seen

[primeria]

This Newsnight interview with a professor from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine makes a lot of sense:

Politics aside (and no, I didn't vote for them), I do think the Government's measured approach is the right one.

OP- thought same myself when I watched it. Thanks for sharing.

I think he's talking bollox. Dangerous. We know damn all about COVID-19. We don't know ANYTHING about herd immunity with COVID. Having a nice pocket of infection is an appalling idea. Certainly not enough to assume any of the figures or suppositions he's making. This is nonsense. Bollox.

I also think he's prepared to 'lose' (let them die) a lot of more 'vulnerable people. Nice. Civic minded.

I thought we had left a WW2 and eugenics behind us.

Clearly not. Sad times.

I'm with Catherine

Very interesting video. Thank you for sharing. He makes an interesting point - the government can’t do much, individual behaviour will have the greatest impact on the outcome by which we mean either lots of Coronavirus deaths or even more Coronavirus deaths plus deaths from strain on healthcare and breakdown of supply chains.

Everyone is surly aware that Herd immunity refers to cattle. It is a method to assure a fit and healthy herd. It involves letting the weak cattle die.

The virus is here for keeps. You'd have to isolate everyone 100% effectively to stamp it out, which is impossible (and would kill more people because 100% isolation would mean no food deliveries, no medical help etc). If you can't stamp it out, then creating herd immunity is the best way to save lives.

It only saves the lives of the cattle in the herd that are healthy. The sick, old and vulnerable are not saved.

Vaccinating for flu is not just done yearly due to viral mutation but because the antibodies from the flu vaccine don't last very long. Most people vaccinated in the Autumn will not have antibodies by the following year.

There is evidence to suggest that there is some herd immunity to flu, but only to the specific strain or a very similar one to flu you've had before. I think it's thought that immunity to flu strains lasts a long time which is why people who developed immunity in the Spanish Flu outbreak were immune to later epidemics, but coronaviruses are not flu.

There is no evidence that herd immunity is feasible for SARS-COV-2, it's just an assumption, because no one knows yet whether or for how long antibodies remain.

if they get a vaccine developed quickly for this (there is serious fast tracking going on)

Doesn't the 'serious fast-tracking' mean it's going to take 12-18 months. Assuming what they've got now actually works.

We can't all stay indoors for a year or more.

Everyone is surly aware that Herd immunity refers to cattle.
What a load of rubbish! Here's some background info on herd immunity, explained in the context of vaccination: vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/herd-immunity

If you can"t be vaccinated then the only way to become immune is to get the virus and recover.

A vaccine could take that long. But they are also working on treatments for it.

A lot of the drugs being tested are already available and have passed most clinical human trials, 1 is now being trialled on 750 odd patients along with a placebo. if these trials are any good a treatment could be rolled out.

which once counties come out of quarantine if there is a spike again we could be ready to help treat a majority. whilst waiting for a vaccine to develop.

If you can"t be vaccinated then the only way to become immune is to get the virus and recover or die.

which is what pp was saying

Primeria your article is correct but my in-laws are dairy farmers and they will tell you where the description "herd immunity" came from, it is used by farmers worldwide as a descriptive for the practice of improving the health of the herd. It's also used when they let calves who are disabled or Ill die so that they don't pass on genes that can damage the health of the herd.
It is eugenics.
My daughters consultants are still waiting for advise from the government allowing them to protect and isolate the hundreds of sick children they are responsible for, they are despairing.

Given Dominic Cummings obsession with eugenics none of this should be surprising to us.

my in-laws are dairy farmers and they will tell you where the description "herd immunity" came from

Doesn't matter where it came from, because that's not what it means in this context.

However,people are still right to be worried about vulnerable relatives, and the guy in the video does say they should be isolated. When I said the Gvt's measured response seems sensible I meant their advice for those who are healthy - i.e. not closing schools or cancelling gatherings. My elderly mum is staying at home as much as possible and if I had a very vulnerable child I think I would be keeping them at home whether that was in line with gvt advice or not. My DS does have mild asthma, but not enough for me to be overly concerned as I don't think children have been badly affected in other countries where the virus is further spread.

Why are no other countries, with their expert advisors, heading for herd immunity then?

NellyGrace - Britain has 'special' advisors. Also has a 'special' PM. The brain of a flea.

I think every country is doing something different. You only hear about the ones who are closing things down, not the ones who aren't.

problem is what our government is doing is speeding it up. it will peak fast and very high. not slow and long as they are leading us to believe.

The only way to speed it up would be official advice to wander round licking anyone who coughs, but I take your point that they may have misjudged and it may peak too soon.

We have to trust that the modelers have a reasonable idea what they are doing. The worry that trying to quarantine for the 3-6 months to ride the peak is unachieveable or too damaging is a realistic one.

Ultimately this is not a decision that should be made by democracy, it is a decision for the people with the data and expertise.

Why are no other countries, with their expert advisors, heading for herd immunity then?

Can anyone suggest a credible way that any country can avoid further outbreaks, even is a quarantine is successful?

From another thread

Today 17:32 crispycracker

But among others asking questions about the strategy is Anthony Costello, a paediatrician, research scientist and former director of mother, child and adolescent health at WHO.

In this twitter thread, he states that vaccines are a safer way to develop herd immunity, without the risks associated with the disease itself and asks: “Is it ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of an uncertain future benefit”

Unlike all other countries, the UK strategy aims to build herd immunity by allowing the steady spread of #COVID19. The government argue it will block a second peak in several months time. Here are EIGHT questions about this HERD IMMUNITY strategy: (THREAD)

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

China are operating a staged re-opening. Workers are having to take tests prove they are healthy before they reenter the workplace according to WHO. They tested extensively and contact traced extensively

Oh and they had started to report cases of re-infection.

We are no longer testing people with symptoms.

We can't then contact trace people....

But herd immunity will keep us safe

China’s data say you can catch it again (allegedly.

Given Dominic Cummings obsession with eugenics none of this should be surprising to us.

What? Dominic Cummings is obsessed with eugenics?

if I had a vulnerable child I think I would be keeping them at home This is the type of thinking that I just cannot understand...My child has a nursing team, home injections, hospital appointments (in 4 different hospitals) bloods, physio, support in school, special diet. You "healthy" guys just don't get it do you? We cant just "take our kids out of school and isolate".....
I hope your mum and son are ok btw.