Coronavirus and herd immunity: Best interview I've seen

[primeria]

This Newsnight interview with a professor from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine makes a lot of sense:

Politics aside (and no, I didn't vote for them), I do think the Government's measured approach is the right one.

@Harpingon I have a friend with a son in similar circumstances . As if your life isn't hard enough ,now this .

Alternative - slow the spread down ,gov to take more definitive lead .

Schools to shut on case by case basis ,to close for 2/3 weeks when staff or pupil dx .Not cleaned and re opened .

Develop plan whereby some child care and schools kept open ,run by "skeleton" ( no pun!) to provide for offspring of some occupations eg health workers ,care workers .

Test those self isolating with a fever OR cough c 5 days after symptoms . Or at least test a percentage of them.

The spread will continue ,some immunity gained .

Or you close the schools to all but those who need them.

You drop attendance fines so those who can take kids out will.

Which incidentally protects both kids of emergency workers and the most vulnerable.

Or we just let thousands die.

Huge thanks to all in NHS and homes . x million

I saw a pic of a nurse leaning into a car to take swabs and though OMG ,her back is going to be ruined .This procedure/drive thtough testing needs to be tweaked .

And we know that there must be 10,000 + cases out there in the UK already ,they are already doing?have done their bit in spreading and creating immunity .

What on earth is so educated about that clip?
We all know we need to flatten the curve, stretch it out.

Peridito, your plan seems reasonable, at least it would protect the vulnerable. Thank you for the flowers.

Reports coming from China and Japan have shown that you can contract coronavirus more than once

Only media reports, not scientific evidence. There have been a handful of cases and nobody knows if they were clear of the virus before they reportedly "re-contracted" it.

Surely limiting movement by closing schools, restricting travel etc thus containing the virus will do more to 'curve the spike'

Watch the video to the end if you didn't already. Closing schools doesn't contain the virus. The children don't disappear, or even sit at home behind locked doors for weeks on end. As a minimum they still mingle with close family and friends, and the virus still gets transmitted - often to grandparents who they will end up spending more time with.

Primera,

A proper lockdown would be total lockdown for children. Not mingling, not playing not visiting. Children are asymptomatic carriers of this virus, they show no signs yet they are the least hygienic and biggest spreaders in society.

Johnson's approach does not apply to children, and thus makes it null and void for them. The self-isolation, the persistent hand washing, distance isolating etc will not apply to children. Have you ever been in a classroom with over 30 kids? The biggest germ factory you could be in.

Why do you believe BJ's experts yet ignore the advice of the WHO and the advice of every other developed country affected by this?

A proper lockdown would be total lockdown for children. Not mingling, not playing not visiting.

Good luck with that! This isn't China.

Other countries must have some logic in why they're delaying the transmission of this. The UK doesn't want to delay it. Why the disparity in thinking?

Unless it's no more than Brexit, Boris just wants to get Coronavirus done. Let 'em have it and be done with it! One way of dealing with it I suppose.

Spain and Italy are implementing the same though. Britain once again are making themselves the laughing stock of the world.

You haven't commented on the fact Britain are ignoring the advice from the WHO.

Other countries must have some logic in why they're delaying the transmission of this. The UK doesn't want to delay it. Why the disparity

Exactly. Apologists for the govt approach keep saying that other countries are trying to suppress it and that they will get a second wave when they are unsuccessful. But they aren't trying to eradicate the disease. They are trying to spread it out over time so that their healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed and thus avoid hundreds of thousands of deaths. But our government want to Get Corona Done

I think he's talking bollox. Dangerous. We know damn all about COVID-19. We don't know ANYTHING about herd immunity with COVID. Having a nice pocket of infection is an appalling idea. Certainly not enough to assume any of the figures or suppositions he's making. This is nonsense. Bollox

Hmm, whom should I listen to? - a professor from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine talking about something he's studied his entire career or a random, unqualified stranger on mumsnet who spells bollocks as "bollox".

Such a hard choice...

GET CORONA DONE.

It would actually be funny if we weren't staring down the lens of 200 deaths per day soon. Baffling really.

Everyone knows the correct spelling is BOLLIX.

You don't need to be China. Other countries are doing it too.

this short vid (3.43) is an excellent dummies guide to the govt's strategy and explains why it is a logical, albeit counter-intuitive, approach

Why is keeping the schools open going to stop,it spreading to grandparents?
When I open my door to let children out at home time around 50% are regularly picked up by grandparents.

Which seems most prudent?

Letting the amount of cases grow very large, and then stemming spread to tune it down to the desired level.

or

Stemming spread completely, and then releasing the controls to a point which our NHS can cope with.

Because I would say option 1 is very risky, given that it's never been done, and no-one knows if it's even possible.

Not everyone who contracts this needs medical attention though, not all 60m will need to go into the bottle.

No quarantine now means more vulnerable will get it putting an immediate strain on NHS. 2-3 weeks of lockdown and the virus stops spreading, less people and children pick it up as carriers. The rate if it will not be as great as it has had a few weeks of not spreading.

Waiting until the horse has bolted and then going into lockdown. It is pointless then.

We'll know in a year or two what was the best approach. I don't think anyone who has to make such difficult decisions takes it lightly and what 'everyone else' is doing is not always right. For example, Frances Kathleen Oldham Kelsey did opposite of every other professional in her position.

Spanish Government now has the country in lockdown.

UK treating it like the chickenpox, get it once and you'll be fine ....

UK is criticised for approach by WHO. There is no coordination across the world. Each country is scrabbling to stock lab tests, gloves and medical supplies. WHO needs to coordinate otherwise those with greatest political influence or money steal from rest of the world. #wouldtestifusaandeuropehadnotbulkpurchsedsupplies