Coronavirus and herd immunity: Best interview I've seen

[primeria]

This Newsnight interview with a professor from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine makes a lot of sense:

Politics aside (and no, I didn't vote for them), I do think the Government's measured approach is the right one.

@Harpingon The idea that herd immunity might actually exist as opposed to purely individual immunity was first observed and described by Topley and Wilson in 1923, who created the term:
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2167341/?page=1

This is really good. Tough to swallow but good.

Yes Dominic Cummings is interested in Eugenics. Worrying but true.

DC recently appointed an adviser who was fired because he was a racist eugenicist & people complained

This is very interesting too. It's a Ted talk about CV Best thing I've seen so far.

@terralee how do you know that Cummings is in to eugenics? Sorry if I missed a post!

This is an interesting article about herd immunity: www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/herd-immunity-will-the-uks-coronavirus-strategy-work

“But Anthony Costello, a paediatrician and former World Health Organization director, said that the UK government was out of kilter with other countries in looking to herd immunity as the answer. It could conflict with WHO policy, he said in a series of Twitter posts, which is to contain the virus by tracking and tracing all cases. He quoted Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director general, who said: “The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.”

Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. “Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.” Vaccines, he said, were a much safer way of bringing it about.”

It’s an extraordinarily risky gamble that could cost us thousands of lives, and I can’t believe people are ok with Boris taking it. Don’t forget that his hero is ruddy Larry Vaughn from Jaws!!!!!! (www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/boris-callous-mayor-from-jaws-is-my-hero-491526)

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dominic-cummings-misfits-weirdos-boris-johnson-womens-sport-paralympics-a9337226.html

www.geneticsandsociety.org/article/advocating-eugenics-uk-department-education

@KeysDontBelongInTheFridge I read it somewhere, he mixes with people who are into it.
I will have to google.

Too quickly and our NHS collapses, too slowly and our economy collapses (which will ultimately cause the NHS to collapse too).

Too quickly and a large proprtion of population is sick and the NHS collapses will also lead to economic collapse surely?

It’s an extraordinarily risky gamble that could cost us thousands of lives

Closing schools at this early stage is a risky gamble too. More NHS staff would have to stay home to care for children. Many children would be cared for by grandparents - the very people who are most vulnerable - that's what happened in Italy. Many older children will be home alone, and will end up mingling on the streets and in parks, still spreading the virus and leading to other issues.

Only time will tell which countries used the most effective measures - there will be lots of comparative stats published - but nobody knows in advance. In the meantime, all governments can do is consult scientific advice and make a judgement call.

Sending potentially over a million citizens to their death is not a judgement call.

No scientists other that the two sat beside Boris think this is the right approach

Johnson was educated at Eton and Balliol College, Oxford, where he read Classics.

Eminently qualified to effectively analyse medical and financial data.

Would explain his pomposity however.

Compare Johnson to Ireland's PM

Varadkar was born in Dublin and studied medicine at Trinity College Dublin. He spent several years as a non-consultant hospital doctor, eventually qualifying as a general practitioner in 2010.

For reference, to study Medicine at Trinity, you need 6 (SIX) straight A's.

Now - who do you think might have been most capable of critically analysing the information received from experts? Johnson with his Classics or Varadkar with his Medicine?

No scientists other that the two sat beside Boris think this is the right approach

Rubbish. Many are saying the same. Remember that the media often present 2 conflicting scientific views in an attempt at "balance" but scientists work out a consensus over time, through published research and critical review ... we won"t know the right answer for months or years but in the meantime the approach being taken here is justifiable. Every country is doing something different.

Remember that the media often present 2 conflicting scientific views in an attempt at "balance"

.... and also remember that many media critics are politically motivated.

I think he's talking bollox. Dangerous. We know damn all about COVID-19. We don't know ANYTHING about herd immunity with COVID. Having a nice pocket of infection is an appalling idea. Certainly not enough to assume any of the figures or suppositions he's making. This is nonsense. Bollox.

Well, I think I will go with what the professor of infectious diseases says for now, rather than some random on the Internet who thinks he is talking bollox.

Herd immunity might not even last, Costello said. “Does coronavirus cause strong herd immunity or is it like flu where new strains emerge each year needing repeat vaccines? We have much to learn about Co-V immune responses.” Vaccines, he said, were a much safer way of bringing it about.”

We yes obviously, but we are possibly well over a year from a vaccine. Are countries really just going to lock down until then?

I don't understand what people think the alternative is tbh?

What a load of tosh.

1. Reports coming from China and Japan have shown that you can contract coronavirus more than once, thus the notion if immunity once contracted is a liad of nonsense.

1. Surely limiting movement by closing schools, restricting travel etc thus containing the virus will do more to 'curve the spike' than the current status quo which has shown contraction rate to rise from the first case to almost 800 cases in just 6 weeks. Especially as now the spread is moving towards community transmissions.

1. This theory admits many will die before it is curbed. I hope the people who support this theory are content for the more vulnerable members of their family to be put at risk and possibly succumb to this disease as ultimately that's what'll happen.

Herd immunity does not work on corona virus.

Listen to WHO they know this!

Primera, you do realise that fewer cases are being reported in China because they went into total lockdown, not because they went with a herd immunity approach.

I agree that he makes sense and I also agree with a lot of the government's policy (which is not something I thought I'd ever say while Boris is PM). For example I agree with not shutting schools right now. I didn't agree with not restricting mass gatherings, so I'm glad that it's looking like they're changing their minds on that.

What worries me is that we're so out of step with other countries. Are we really the only ones getting it right? Are all the other scientists wrong? Or are scientists in other countries being ignored by politicians who are bending to public pressure and closing schools against scientific advice? I don't believe that our scientists have access to different info to the scientists in France/Germany/Ireland/Italy/Singapore or vice versa so why are we coming to such different conclusions?

Closing schools at this early stage is a risky gamble too. More NHS staff would have to stay home to care for children. Many children would be cared for by grandparents - the very people who are most vulnerable - that's what happened in Italy.

Exactly. Many posters on here seem incapable of grasping this basic concept

WHO are right.

They have hundreds of experts with first hand experience.

...but the moment they remove the lockdown it will go back up again. That’s the nature of a pandemic rather than an epidemic. It can’t be stopped until we get herd immunity, but it can be slowed.*

By going into lockdown and containing the spread we can limit those who can transmit it. By letting society continue as normal less this thing continue to manifest through the population.

Why do you think there are paths burned to limit the spread of forest fires, if the channel of transmission is cut off then it protects the rest of the forest.

The approach of getting on with things as normal astounds me, it really does.*