Coronavirus and herd immunity: Best interview I've seen

[primeria]

This Newsnight interview with a professor from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine makes a lot of sense:

Politics aside (and no, I didn't vote for them), I do think the Government's measured approach is the right one.

No lions, if you read past the headlines to what was actually said by Dr Margaret Harris, she didn't criticise it at all. She said we just don't know yet. She has also said that all governments must make their own decisions on how to manage the situation.

See Dr Margaret Harris from the WHO here: www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000gnyx

I'm not sure about anyone else but I'm immuo compromised and I am petrified. We are in the fortunate position to have few cases at the minute. Why can't we lockdown like EVERY OTHER European country to stop the spread.

Gatherings are being limited across the world, USA advising no more than 50, Austria no more than 5 an here we are channelling the spirit of the Blitz and just getting on as normal. It's terrifying. The theory has been debunked by many other World Scientists, it has been laughed as as being presumed as satire. It is so ridiculous that we are the laughing stock of the world.

I don't want to be a pawn in Boris Johnson's game of Russian Roulette. Thankfully I'm in Northern Ireland, hopefully we make a decision now in line with the South.

for the curious

Frances Kathleen Oldham Kelsey, CM (July 24, 1914 – August 7, 2015) was a Canadian-American[1] pharmacologist and physician. As a reviewer for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), she refused to authorize thalidomide for market because she had concerns about the drug's safety

and OP yyy read past the headlines everyone

Why can't we lockdown like EVERY OTHER European country to stop the spread.

Every country is locking down in a different way and on a different timeline. It's simply not possible to stop the spread. All any government can do is slow it down. China are now reporting low numbers of new cases, but (assuming their numbers can even be believed) as soon as they let people back out from the lockdown the virus will start to spread again.

But you should do what you need to do to keep yourself safe. My mum, in her seventies and healthy, is already self isolating. She isn't waiting to be told by the Government. She is fine with it - but lots of other elderly or vulnerable people don't want to, and, for some, their mental health will suffer when they do, so there are no easy answers.

Primeria, I'm a teacher, I can't just choose to self isolate. I don't have annual leave, if I owned my own business I could but I can't. I have no protection.

I can't just choose to self isolate
Employers, including schools, are telling people to self-isolate if they have respiratory symptoms or if they need to care for others who are isolating. If you're really that worried, and can't get a letter from your doctor to advise you to stay home (have you tried?) then invent a sniffle - nobody will question it. But there's no need to close the whole school on your account! Bear in mind that if schools do close, essential services, including the NHS, will grind to a halt.

What's the correlation between schools and the NHS? Oh yes... the childcare. That's essentially how we are being viewed.

That's essentially how we are being viewed.

No, you're providing education to children. If schools close, children of key workers will need to be cared for, either by their parents or in another setting, with or without the education.

By the way, if you're a teacher, how come you're on Mumsnet at this time of the morning? Do you work part time?

I'm in NI, we're off for St Patrick's Day.

I've already discussed how schools can't cope with social distancing etc, big classes small classrooms. If teachers go off are we supposed to merge classes to 60+ kids? It's impossible to get subs at the best of times never mind during this.

Just a thought, I have yet to read anything about childcare being an issue for key medical staff for Spain, Italy, America or France. Perhaps you could correct me on this one.

The trouble is , this is a new virus, nobody knows if we will have immunity after we catch it and also how long will the immunity last. And , the death rate for this virus is not low, even we take a very optimistic one as 0.5%, that's lots of death.

Also, although it is said it affects old more, when lots of people catch it, we will see people in their 40s, 50s and 60s die.

And the virus is a nasty one, you may be lucky to be minor symptoms, but lots will have to encounter the pneumonia. Are there any long lasting side effect? Nobody know.

So, why not try to stop massive people catch it, leave some time for scientist to develop the vaccine?

Thank-you OP- really good video.

Yes, there are articles about it being an issue, e.g. here: www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/05/really-stressful-italians-struggle-to-cope-with-education-closures

They're using up annual leave, scrabbling around for paid babysitters, working from home or relying on grandparents (who are potentially vulnerable).

By the way, the gvt haven't said they won't close schools, just that now is not the right time to do it. Hopefully they'll stay open as long as possible. But there are many reports of individual families who are choosing to keep children at home for various reasons - including anyone with respiratory symptoms. That seems like the right balance for now.

Secondary school pupils don't need childcare. So that's not the reason is it? It's to spread it around the younger population more....

Secondary students will hang out with friends in shopping centres etc. That's what is happening in Italy. Many will be home alone and get very anxious.

The virus will spread anyway. It can't be stopped. Slowing it too much will cause the peak to hit next winter rather than over the summer and may increase the number of deaths because people won't develop resistance as quickly.

... and people will have to isolate themselves for longer too.

No they're not!!

People are on lockdown, they are being fined by the military for being out on the streets.

Not all secondary students will hang out in shopping centres. Most will be at home on their xbox or similar, and anyway if they hang out in friendship groups that is still better than being in airless classrooms for hours at a time with many other students and adults. They don't just go around in one group of 30 all day - they will be mixed up in different sets and tutor groups and subjects...

They may be now, but they weren't earlier.

Frankly I'd rather our military was helping to deliver food to the elderly and vulnerable than fining healthy people. It's just not sustainable for any significant length of time, and as soon as the lockdown is relaxed the virus will spread again.

This has aged well.

Yes, it has. They're moving through their response plan in line with scientific advice. They always said school closure was on the list, but needed to be done at the right time. Schools are still safe places, but it's the next step in slowing the spread. Rumour has it that London will be completely locked down by the weekend.

But there is still no exit strategy. We won't start getting back to normal until either a vaccine is developed or a very high proportion of people have had the virus. They're developing an antibody test to help monitor who has had it.

Don't kid yourself, 3 days to Monday's regulations and the. 5 days is to the turn around today (actually just 3 teaching days)

It is a massive turnaround. They completely got it wrong.

I listened to Vallance there, his reasonings were full of assumptions.

It is a massive turnaround. They completely got it wrong.

Agreed. 7 days ago they said anyone with a cough/fever should self isolate for 7 days. They said at some point in the future they'd consider asking the whole household to isolate for 14 days. That announcement came 4 days later. They said school closures were something that they would implement if necessary as we came to the peak. That announcement came 6 days later. I think its moving much faster than they thought it would.

Your definition of a turnaround is clearly different to mine.