Coronavirus and herd immunity: Best interview I've seen

[primeria]

This Newsnight interview with a professor from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine makes a lot of sense:

Politics aside (and no, I didn't vote for them), I do think the Government's measured approach is the right one.

Are we separating the vulnerable to they are safe?

The government hasn't even told the vulnerable to self isolate.

If they had have done I'd be keeping my vulnerable DS at home. Of course I can still choose to do that and probably very soon will.

But many other vulnerable people are unsure what to do.

transmission in China (only a handful of new cases a day now being recorded) suggests humans do develop herd immunity to this one too

The numbers have dropped not because of herd immunity but very severe lock down, with the epicentre still pretty much cut off still.

No. What he's saying is that there is no way of stopping most people (80-90%) from getting it

Actually only around 20% of china got it.
Gosh how did they do that? lock down and restriction of movement.

Actually only around 20% of china got it.

Most won't have even been tested. Many don't get symptoms, but they probably still had it.

I'd be more worried if it was their lockdown that's preventing new cases, because when their lockdown ends (which it will have to eventually) the whole process would then re-start.

These threads are so depressing. He's making perfect sense but you get the usual crew pretending to misunderstand or trying to pull his educated assessment to pieces. There is no perfect outcome now. There is only attempts to control and channel it. Getting angry and obstructive in accepting that is unhelpful and the way of sulky teens. It is perfectly clear that he is describing his perfect scenario and not just shrugging and abandoning people to their fate because his perfect scenario cannot take place. What do people gain from pretending otherwise?

I'd also like to see fact based evidence that people are immune after having this CV.

So far there is no evidence.

They are just taking a gamble on lives, that might work or might not...

yet we do know that unchecked it Will take more lives.

the peak they are actually looking having with not putting even the smallest measures in place now, is going to happen faster and higher then other countries. meaning more lives lost.

if the gamble doesn't pay off and there is no herd immunity after the peak, deaths will keep rolling on.

I'd be more worried if it was their lockdown that's preventing new cases, because when their lockdown ends (which it will have to eventually) the whole process would then re-start

So far china has over 3000 deaths. as you say the positive tests have drop right off.

if in this country it takes out the 1% of the 80% they say is inevitable. that will be around 500,000 deaths. plus maybe add in other non CV related deaths that may happen because of no access to medical care due to hospitals being overwhelmed.

...but the moment they remove the lockdown it will go back up again. That’s the nature of a pandemic rather than an epidemic. It can’t be stopped until we get herd immunity, but it can be slowed.

We still have attendance fines. Ive been told if pull DS out it will be unauthorised. I will probably be fined. Hes been hospitalised with Norovirus and nearly with flu.

We gave not made it govenment mandate for those with preexisting conditions to wfh (unless there is damn good reasons why not)

We have done nothing to protect the vulnerable in society.

Thats if herd immunity is even an actual thing.... theres no confirmed studies on that yet

•...but the moment they remove the lockdown it will go back up again.•

They are removing the lockdown in China now - aren't they? And cases are not going back up again ...

@teapotter herd immunity is a fallacy. No one is certainty that we get immunity after having Covid 19.

herd immunity is a fallacy

Are you suggesting that in general or in relation to Covid-19? Are you an anti-vaxxer?

*I'd also like to see fact based evidence that people are immune after having this CV.

So far there is no evidence.*

No shit, it’s almost like this is new and scientists are having to make educated assessments based on the behaviour of similar viruses...

AccountAntsy no she's not saying she's an anti-vaxer.

she is saying there is no evidence that you are immune from CV after you have had once, because it can mutate.

Same as flu, a new vaccine has to be made each year for the different strains of flu.

until we develop a vaccine for CV herd immunity is not guaranteed at this point. Because we just don't know if people are immune after having it.

Just watched the clip and I have a question.......
If or when you get CV and you then “change your behaviour” (which presumably involves self isolation) then how will you encourage herd immunity? Or do you just wash your hands and avoid all vulnerable people but continue contact with non vulnerable part of the herd?

Sorry I didn't make it clear. I didn't mean herd immunity is a fallacy - I meant just in connection with this Covid 19.

And yes of course this is an unknown @AccountAntsy. But precisely because of that our government should be extremely careful.

My point is that they are assuming that we will gain herd immunity from this. But of course they cannot know that. That is why other countries are locking down and we are not. We are going out on a limb by making that assumption.

No shit, it’s almost like this is new and scientists are having to make educated assessments based on the behaviour of similar viruses...

and what are the WHO and other nations basing there reactions on?

Government advice predicated on a person not being infectious until they become symptomatic.

It'd be bad if you were infectious for a few days before the first symptom.

oh...

I don't mind the general idea if you could isolate those most at risk AND buy the NHS a couple of weeks to let their front line staff contract and recover from the virus. Neither of these things are happening, as far as I can see, though.

Thanks, that's a helpful and clear-sighted view.

It's a good point people have said about mass testing too early - a contact of mine in Italy has said that one of the reasons it might have got so bad there was that too many people went for testing in health centres.

Just watched the clip and I have a question.......If or when you get CV and you then “change your behaviour” (which presumably involves self isolation) then how will you encourage herd immunity?

@thistimeofyear if you isolate yourself when you get it, then by the time you go out into the big wide world again you are immune. The greater the number of people who are immune, the fewer people there are in the population to pass the virus on. So the vulnerable people are then less likely to catch it. That's what herd immunity is.

Government advice predicated on a person not being infectious until they become symptomatic

No it isn't. It's predicated on reducing the number of infected people circulating in the community rather than assuming they can be stopped altogether. The virus is now going to spread for sure ... they just want it to spread slowly rather than quickly, so that the peak stays below the NHS's ability to cope. You've probably seen the projection in the media, but here it is again...

Ok thanks primeria

But @primeria - the virus is contagious before symptoms emerge? So how does self isolating only when symptomatic slow the virus down? If we all trot around as normal and don’t instigate social distancing, then the spread will happen at the same speed, or faster than in the contain phase?

I genuinely think this is more about the economy paired with an undisclosed sheer inability to instigate wide-scale testing. Several other countries have shown harsh social limitations are the way to slow it down - China has slowed it dramatically, Japan and Singapore have jumped all over it. Western nations are so unwilling to take the strict measures required and are writing a narrative to justify this (a paper thin one which is self-contradictory and avoids the issue that the advice means we only capture death data - identifying a peak is impossible without testing!)
Herd immunity is currrntly not possible for the common cold (many Corina viruses) because they’re viruses - they mutate. That’s why people get them so often. Flu is also a virus and also mutates, this the best guess vaccination programmes.

This delay policy only holds up if you accept the flawed science being spouted as a distraction to the country’s inability to cope and the driving mission of money before people. Funny how markets bounced back after the announcement, don’t you think?

We should help to protect them by not visiting them with our snotty kids in tow.

But that implies that the ill and the vulnerable are all sitting at home with a travelling rug over their knee.

My DH is a type one diabetic - luckily his employer are letting him work from home. But the government haven't even recommended self isolation for vulnerable groups yet, so if his employer refused he had to choose between his job and isolating himself properly.

There are great many older and vulnerable people who are not getting any advice or support to isolate themselves.

the virus is contagious before symptoms emerge? So how does self isolating only when symptomatic slow the virus down?

If you're contagious for 10 days, but only circulate in the community for the first 5 of them, then obviously you will pass the virus on to fewer people than if you circulate for all 10 of them. So it slows it down. Also, if you're asymptomatic, you're not coughing and sneezing it everywhere. You may still touch your nose, then a door handle, and pass it on that way, but not as many as will get it when you start coughing into their faces. So yes, it does slow it down. It just doesn't stop it.

Locking everybody up won't stop people getting it, it will just stretch out the curve so the whole thing lasts longer. They do need to stretch it out enough so the NHS can cope, but not so long that the impact to everyone's lives is much greater than it needs to be.