Trump throwing a lot of people under the bus because of stock markets?

[mids2019]

When you start a war you finish it in my opinion. There has been no other war that has been stopped because of a slide on the Dow Jones or an oil price spike. For Trump to now prematurely call an end to the war simply because of economics will simply mean IIrans drone terrorism has worked.

The people of Iran will be left with a job half done without the space needed for an uprising.

A new leader with good reason to ideological hate Israel and the US will realise the only method of future deterrence of Iran is through acquiring a nuclear weapon as their conventional weapons were obliterated. Iran will now do everything possible to acquire such a weapon.

This is a time for resolve Mr. President. There is still a chance to destroy this regime maybe with limited target ground troop assaults. The world actually will be safer if you continue.

I agree that the vast majority of the world will be advocating for the war to "stop here".

It just seems so unlikely to me, for a variety of reasons; Trump's ego first and foremost. But it also is uncertain if Israel will stop just because US has, and uncertan how the IRGC will respond if both do withdraw.

The hornets nest has been kicked and the hornets now know they have the world economy as their bargaining chip.

I agree UK needs to stay well out of this.
And keep a tight watch on Putin and help with Greenland.
Once Trump leaves his war in Iran, he will keep going down his list of "I want that..."
We are not all hopeless yet. And if there is something the world and MAGA may agree is to tell them to pack it and go home.

If there has been a stupid war in the world, this would be it.
Achieved at short term- neutralisation of Iran military assets
Achieved at long term- nothing
Lost on the close term- lives, property, Putin getting fresh money, economy
Lost on long term- reputations and alliances to a point of no return, the world geopolitical order

Digging themselves any further into it.... the stupidest thing to possibly do.

That is the present.
But they have to think about the future. There is no way they will survive internationally if they go ahead with their threats.
It all comes to how restrained these guys are. Which they are not, that is clear. But they also have plenty of advisors and diplomats and other politicians reminding them what is to come.
I have given up to pay much attention to whstever BS Trump says. Because he changes his vague idiotic words far too much. My opinion of him has really plunged.

Agree,

Trump won't stop because of his ego and his inability to admit defeat and not wanting to be the president who destroyed the myth of the "invincible American military".

Bibi won't stop because he is extremely clever, he knows that he won't get another "Trump" like figure and that polls in America are trending against support for Israel and this won't be possible in 10-20 years.

Iran won't stop, as this is an existential war for them. People also underestimate how much the murder of the schoolgirls in Minab has affected Iranian society and the call for vengeance.

They may carry on with the war, but I think they may open the S of H, at least partially, and stay away from oil and water infrastructure. There is far too much international pressure mounting. These latest set of threats... gone far too far with their words.
If US actually gets boots on the ground in Iran, then we may face this as a reality, because Iran is likely to physically close the strait in that case.
I still have hopes that they take this as the exit point.

@Legssses but they always did know they had the world as a bargaining chip .
War gaming with Iran would bring up this straights probably since the day this evil corrupt regime took charge.

So I'm surprised this wasn't factored in.

@BelleHathor and we as a collation won't get another chance to topple the regime either and stop them getting a nuclear weapon.

in all this madness it's easy to loose sight of the 20 Iranian backed terrorism acts on our soil that our counter terrorism services have stopped
Easy to forget that this wicked corrupt regime causes loss of life and terror throughout the world.

Look what they are doing with a simple stretch of water...imagine what they could do with a nuclear weapon.
It doesn't bear thinking about.

Most if not all countries are clear on this. Waiting won’t help, in five to ten years they’d not be stopped.

People would demand why everyone sat back and did nothing given the glaring risk and obvious threat. They’d be right to. It’d be too late by then.

Can you walk us through how the regime will be toppled and a new Govt in place that will destroy the nuclear materials?

Does the regime show any signs at all of folding? or is it as strong as ever, dictating world events and now angrier than ever?

How do you seriously expect people on MN to know the state of the Iranian regime at the moment?

Or to be able to "walk us through" regime change or destroying nuclear capability.

Get real - that is up to the most senior military analysts not us armchair analysts.

Are the Straits of Hormuz closed to all or just to those bombing or supporting the bombing in Iran? If the latter surely it is possible for oil to be shipped by other countries? I can see it is more expensive for those that feel the bombing is necessary but it’s not actually holding the whole world to ransom. America presumably has its own oil supplies anyway???

(edited for a typo and to make clearer)

Aragachi the Iranian foreign minister has repeatedly stated that the Hormuz is not closed. Which is legally correct.

The problem is that Lloyd's insurance have suspended all insurance due to the conflict. So if a ship is sunk there's no compensation.

A couple of ships/tankers have been hit after Iran accused them of illegally trying to cross the straits.

Hormuz is open for "friendly" countries, Russian and Chinese ships have passed through and other countries are negotiating safe passage.

I am surprised too. I am no fan of the Iranian regime, but if some sort of military action was going to be taken against them (by anyone) it should have been war gamed to the nth degree. It obviously hasn't. See Trump scrambling around for minesweepers and obviously being flummoxed by the SoH situation.

Is the "they" here Trump and his administration or the IRGC. Not being goady, asking in good faith.

I assume the "they" here is the IRGC.

What does partially opening the straits look like?

Part of why they are "closed" is because shipping insurers won't cover vessels and crew are understandably not keen. So that's more about perception of risk than anything and I don't know how insurers and people will feel safe to pass through without some sort of ceasefire.

Whatever is done today as a ransom ie the Strait can be done to a greater degree in a few years.

If weapons nearly reach Diego Garcia today they are more likely if people just wait it out.

Doing nothing makes it harder to deal with, probably impossible.

It is open to some ships, particularly China and India. Several have passed. Or it was till recently.
Not sure what is the current situation.
But the number of ships through it is far too small for normal supply. Plus other goods are stranded too.

I agree. I'm mot advocating for doing nothing. And I don't think the IRGC should have access to nukes. MAD isn’t effective when martyrdom is held in high regard

I just think this military action and its consequences haven't been well thought out or planned for. But that isn't the same as thinking inaction is wise.

Nope, they are all the three crazy parties involved in this war. The war that is at the verge of breaking the world's economy. The 3 of them.

Yes I agree with your first paragraph in particular. The line on MAD and martyrdom is worth reinforcing, given the outcome.

I’m not sure what the options are and whilst I’m glad the G7 have issued an unequivocal statement on not letting Iran have nuclear weapons it feels late.

Inaction to this point means it’s difficult, any longer and likely impossible.

@Alexandra2001 no I can't because I'm not an expert on military strategy and I don't have access to secret report.
However we can see what happens in real time when nuclear power bad actors get their hands on a nuclear weapon . See North Korea and ....Russia.
Can't happen.

Did we have an explosion in UK today?

4 ambulances set on fire.
I just heard it on the radio. And it is online. Jewish ambulance service. So related to all this mess.

In a roundabout way maybe, but the core problem is that people have exposed themselves to too much debt, that is the bit that is going to hurt, in the 1970"s people were not carrying debt loads like this, and many industries were getting pay rises all the time, this is way worse than the 1970"s for the average person.

So actually the issue is that people don’t want to buy Indian and Chinese cargo? We can’t surely think it’s that unreasonable to say “I don’t want you in my waters carrying on trade if you are bombing my people.”?

I lean hard towards international law and think Israel and the US need to be made to follow it. Law is there to stop conflict and injustice.