Trump throwing a lot of people under the bus because of stock markets?

[mids2019]

When you start a war you finish it in my opinion. There has been no other war that has been stopped because of a slide on the Dow Jones or an oil price spike. For Trump to now prematurely call an end to the war simply because of economics will simply mean IIrans drone terrorism has worked.

The people of Iran will be left with a job half done without the space needed for an uprising.

A new leader with good reason to ideological hate Israel and the US will realise the only method of future deterrence of Iran is through acquiring a nuclear weapon as their conventional weapons were obliterated. Iran will now do everything possible to acquire such a weapon.

This is a time for resolve Mr. President. There is still a chance to destroy this regime maybe with limited target ground troop assaults. The world actually will be safer if you continue.

I don't see how holding Kharg Island would do anything. It's just a deep water terminal. The oil is piped there from ashore. If they wanted to blockade Iranian oil it would surely be easier to do it with the navy in the Arabian sea ?

The SoH possible. But again, why ?. Missiles and drones have a range from well beyond the coast. And don't forget, Iran has the Caspian sea to the North where they can trade with Russia. Russia has a Caspian fleet. Are the US going to start sinking Russian ships in the Caspian to stop the supply of arms ?

And if that was not enough, Iran has a massive coastline, The entire north of the gulf. They are not restricted to targeting in the SoH alone.

And of course, in any case, the US now wants Iran to ship and sell it's oil.

I see no military solution at all.

The cynic in me wonders if the business in Venezuela (toppling and deporting/imprisoning Maduro, etc.) was primarily so that Trump would have access to Venezuelan oil for when he launched on Iran...

Iran is also allied with the Houthis in Yemen, who control Bab el-mandab into the Red Sea. The Yemenis ready and waiting.

Remember the Houthis already sent Trump back home with his tail between his legs last year after he sent the Navy to "open" the Red Sea.

This would cause more insurance issues as ships would have to go all the way around South Africa.

I honestly do not see the Houthi as an issue. They have a strange religion none of the other branches like. I am not sure Iran really like them.

But that's from memory sorry, and its a while since I read up on them. So happy to be corrected.

They are Iran's ally and the Iranians help them, especially after the war waged by Suadi Arabia which killed 10s of thousands.

The Houthis practice a branch of Shia Islam called the Zaydi (fiver).

You are likely right. I am being hopeful, but I know deep down it can go very wrong.

I do actually think so. All fits within a plan that is almost unveiling as we go.

Most military experts seem to think that taking Kargh Island or any other bit of coast is difficult and almost impossible to actually maintain the position in an effective way.
They seem to think there is more of a chance to get to vital parts of the country from Iraq, with the Kurds. Whether they do want to get involved on this is not clear to me. I suppose we shall see soon.
I, personally, think that Iran will fight till their last drop of blood is spilled. If threatened with dividing their country.... history points to them fighting till the end.

I've been reading this thread with interest and agree with those stating that there are no quick or easy solutions.

Friends who don't engage so much with global events seem completely oblivious to what is coming economically, so I wanted to ask anyone who is happy to share their point of view, what do you think are the likely economic outcomes of this conflict? I appreciate there are a lot of unknowns.

I don't mean to boil it all down to money when there is so much human suffering as a consequence of this war, but if food becomes scarce and inflation soars the suffering will spread.

If the war stays conventional, in terms of economics, we're in for a hell of a hard landing. There is a lot of market manipulation happening right now, "paper" oil futures were trading for approximately $100 last week, whilst physical oil was trading for $140. Someone (aka taxpayers) will have to account for that difference. We've also lost approx 5% of worldwide LNG due to the damage to Qatar last week.

Food security will also be affected due to the lack of fertiliser and it's planting season in many places now.

Unfortunately, Trump has just effectively threatened to Nuke Iran if they respond to the Americans bombing Iranian electrical infrastructure.

The Americans need to invoke the 25th amendment and remove Trump from office now. His ego and impulsiveness is a threat to all humans.

Iran was a nuclear threshold country with plenty of uranium enriched to 60%. They could respond in kind or via targeting Israel's Dimona Nuclear site.

Thank Fuck that Trump truth appears to be fake!!

Just checked Trump’s truth social and that post is not there.

Says something about how erratically he communicates.

Use better sources than random people on the internet, or you’re just sharing misinformation.

We are all random people on the internet.

It looks to me like @BelleHathor posted something that did appear genuine, then fact checked it, and done a post to issue a correction. Seems ok to me with the correction. Belle self corrected. I know I get corrected, and personally I appreciate it.

We all make small errors. Just ask Trump. Although his errors tend not be small, and they are more often flat out lies than errors.

While Trump has brought humanity into the post truth era, it's good to see people are resisting. Big thumbs up to Belle .

I don’t use random people as sources. There’s a huge amount of misinformation out there which is why sources from X, Instagram, TikTok etc need to be double checked before reposting them. Especially for something as huge as a world leader potentially dropping a nuclear bomb.

“Trump has just effectively threatened to nuke Iran”

Fake news.

Which is somehow his fault despite he didn’t say it.

Fair enough.

So on another thread where you just posted this just now :

"That doesn’t give Iran an excuse to target civilian areas in their neighbouring countries does it?"

You fact checked that did you ? That they are targeting civvie areas, and that where they hit has nothing to do with accuracy or failure rate ?

They have targeted Dubai International airport - full of civilians.

Hardly an accident.

Apartments in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran were 'full of civillians'. 1 soldier in the airport and it's a valid target, isn't that how it works these days? Can you say with certainty that there wasn't a single US soldier in Dubai airport, not a single person working for either the Israeli or US government? They don't even need to be there at the time, just them having used the infrastructure makes it a valid target according to Israels rules of war. Israel have flattened who villages in Lebanon because Hezbollah was there in the past. If whole villages can be destroyed then what is a hit on an airport really?

Whatever happened to giving time for full investigations to be done before condemning bombings? I'm pretty sure there hasn't been a full investigation yet so it's probably best not to jump to conclusions.

Even thought that post appears to be a fake, the rest of your post is correct and deserves to be read, especially by those who continue to cheer on this disastrous war. I guess when they are personally affected, they might perhaps start to think a bit more deeply about cheering for wars.

The vid I saw on CNN of an airport drone attack (Dubai I think), the target was a US diplomatic compound.

That was a vid Iran released and CNN put it on their feed with the usual disclaimers.

I believe at the time, US companies said it would take 5 to 10years to get new fields up and running in Venezuela.

The existing ones are a fraction of what would be required.

I think Trump and the people around him have no idea about Iran and though a massive bombing raid would cause regime change, its actually doing the exact opposite.

@Legssses Assuming Trump carries on with this war and so do the Iranians...... the Economic impact is going to be huge, with impacts predicted to be greater than the 3 previous oil price shocks combined.

We also have no money or means to borrow to help people, so expect any help to go to those in severe hardship only - which imho is only right, why should my taxes go to those who can easily afford the extra price of oil/gas/electricity?

Longer term impacts? Inflation, especially food prices, Pension Values, Every aspect of our lives is going to be massively affected.

Thank you for offering your insights.

I woke up to this from The Times this morning (my phone seems to be struggling to make it all italic for some reason):

'The war in the Middle East could see the world face its worst energy crisis in decades, posing a “major threat”, the International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol said.

The global economy is facing a major, major threat today, and I very much hope that this issue will be resolved as soon as possible,” Birol told the National Press Club in Australia’s capital, Canberra.

“No country will be immune to the effects of this crisis if it continues to go in this direction. So there is a need for global efforts,” he continued.

“Many of us remember the two consecutive oil crises in the 1970s … at that time, in each of the crisis, the world … lost about five million barrels per day, both of them together, 10 million barrels per day,” Birol added. “As of today, we lost 11 million barrels per day, so more than two major oil shocks put together.”

At least 40 energy assets had been “severely” damaged during the war, he added."

Unfortunately, Trump has no capacity to see what he is doing.

I very much hope we do not send K. Charles to the USA, Trump/the Americans are 100% responsible for everything we are now going to experience.

@RedTagAlan and @rainingsnoring appreciate the solidarity ❤️.

I thought about asking Mumsnet to delete the post, however the rest of the post was answering a question.

I corrected myself within 7 minutes, after checking my truthsocial account.

I've had a coffee now, so I won't be petty, growth isn't it wonderful.

They are at a difficult stage of this war where they are threatening each other one up.
It is an unnerving mixture of cunningly well planned and total chaos and lack of control.
Nothing we can do. Bar to sanction the hell out of any of them who touches any further vital installations. Those phones are non stop, from all around the world and I bet you they are all demanding to stop it here.