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Conflict in the Middle East

Why would would you still have pro Palestinian marches apart from now instilling more fear into the Jewish community

532 replies

mids2019 · 14/10/2025 04:21

Now we have what looks like a peace to be celebrated why are people still going to march for Palestine? The genocide has stopped in their opinion so shouldn't they be at least joyful or if that is not the case what do they really want? Do they want to keep marching until the Israeli state is no more?

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TicklishMauveSquid · 14/10/2025 16:44

FreedomandPeace · 14/10/2025 14:42

Here’s one of their studies and how the Capture Recapture model works @TicklishMauveSquid

Traumatic injury mortality in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024: a capture–recapture analysis
Zeina Jamaluddine, PhDa,b [email protected]Hanan Abukmail, MDa,c ∙ Sarah Aly, DOa,d ∙ Prof Oona M R Campbell, PhDa ∙ Prof Francesco Checchi, PhDa
Affiliations & NotesArticle InfoLinked Articles (3)
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Correction:
Errata
Department of Error
February 8, 2025
Summary
Background

Accurate mortality estimates help quantify and memorialise the impact of war. We used multiple data sources to estimate deaths due to traumatic injury in the Gaza Strip between Oct 7, 2023, and June 30, 2024.

Methods
We used a three-list capture–recapture analysis using data from Palestinian Ministry of Health (MoH) hospital lists, an MoH online survey, and social media obituaries.
After imputing missing values, we fitted alternative generalised linear models to the three lists' overlap structure, with each model representing different possible dependencies among lists and including covariates predictive of the probability of being listed; we averaged the models to estimate the true number of deaths in the analysis period (Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024).

Resulting annualised age-specific and sex-specific mortality rates were compared with mortality in 2022.

Findings
We estimated 64 260 deaths (95% CI tel:55%E2%80%89298%E2%80%9378%E2%80%89525 55 298–78 525) due to traumatic injury during the study period, suggesting the Palestinian MoH under-reported mortality by 41%.

The annualised crude death rate was 39·3 per 1000 people (95% CI 35·7–49·4), representing a rate ratio of 14·0 (95% CI 12·8–17·6) compared with all-cause mortality in 2022, even when ignoring non-injury excess mortality.

Women, children (aged <18 years), and older people (aged ≥65 years) accounted for 16 699 (59·1%) of the 28 257 deaths for which age and sex data were available.

Interpretation
Our findings show an exceptionally high mortality rate in the Gaza Strip during the period studied. These results underscore the urgent need for interventions to prevent further loss of life and illuminate important patterns in the conduct of the war.

The CR analysis is a flawed methodology according to these sources.

The research paper can be downloaded without an account and it is pretty comprehensive in its explanation.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5262635

Abstract:

Recent years have seen increased interest in multi-list capture-recapture (CR) statistical modelling for estimating population sizes. This Research Note applies a sophisticated CR method to estimate unrecorded deaths in the ongoing Gaza war. Another recent CR analysis by Jamaluddine et al. (JEA) claimed that the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) underestimated the actual death toll by 41%, implying that tens of thousands of fatalities were not included. They estimated that, during the first three months of the war, the true death toll was 2.3 times that reported by the MoH. However, other researchers argued that the analysis relied on two of three fatality lists that showed extreme statistical dependence, raising serious concerns about the estimate's validity. We demonstrate that the CR method used by JEA is, in fact, robust to such dependency. Nonetheless, their study suffers from serious data quality issues, particularly regarding one list of casualties scraped from social media. Data matching issues with this list massively inflate their estimate of the total death toll. In summary, CR analysis finds no evidence that the MoH underestimated the death toll in Gaza. We also note that any pre-existing unreliability of the casualty lists is not remedied by applying CR methods.

This article explains it in a simpler format. You can refute the actual source, which I have found reliable, but unless you actually read it you can’t really refute the information in it.

honestreporting.com/680000-dead-in-gaza-social-media-eats-up-nonsensical-analysis/

inamarina · 14/10/2025 16:49

FreedomandPeace · 14/10/2025 16:41

No proof
and if a march was solely for the purpose of hate speech there would have been mass arrests

All marches have a police presence
We would have definitely heard of it

Edited

The march might have been declared a “peace march”, that wouldn’t stop some people from chanting antisemitic (or “antizionist” 🙄) crap.
Have heard plenty of it in the last two years.
If any other minority had been targeted, would you also wait for arrests before believing them?

FreedomandPeace · 14/10/2025 16:56

TicklishMauveSquid · 14/10/2025 16:44

The CR analysis is a flawed methodology according to these sources.

The research paper can be downloaded without an account and it is pretty comprehensive in its explanation.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5262635

Abstract:

Recent years have seen increased interest in multi-list capture-recapture (CR) statistical modelling for estimating population sizes. This Research Note applies a sophisticated CR method to estimate unrecorded deaths in the ongoing Gaza war. Another recent CR analysis by Jamaluddine et al. (JEA) claimed that the Gaza Ministry of Health (MoH) underestimated the actual death toll by 41%, implying that tens of thousands of fatalities were not included. They estimated that, during the first three months of the war, the true death toll was 2.3 times that reported by the MoH. However, other researchers argued that the analysis relied on two of three fatality lists that showed extreme statistical dependence, raising serious concerns about the estimate's validity. We demonstrate that the CR method used by JEA is, in fact, robust to such dependency. Nonetheless, their study suffers from serious data quality issues, particularly regarding one list of casualties scraped from social media. Data matching issues with this list massively inflate their estimate of the total death toll. In summary, CR analysis finds no evidence that the MoH underestimated the death toll in Gaza. We also note that any pre-existing unreliability of the casualty lists is not remedied by applying CR methods.

This article explains it in a simpler format. You can refute the actual source, which I have found reliable, but unless you actually read it you can’t really refute the information in it.

honestreporting.com/680000-dead-in-gaza-social-media-eats-up-nonsensical-analysis/

That’s an interesting article and goes to show how difficult it is to garner actual deaths when bodies are missing
could be under rubble
could be in an Israeli jail
?

The questionable data referred to was by Palestinians in Gaza re their missing friends and relatives.

At the moment there’s no other way to work out whose missing other than by asking the Palestinians in Gaza ( of relatives abroad searching )

Thanks for that though
We’ll see what the final figure is if they find people under the rubble and if Israel release or identify all those in their jails

Time will tell but at the moment this is the most accurate way of working out the figures.

PurpleThistle7 · 14/10/2025 16:57

I think what's super gross is that many, many people have been telling the marchers that they find these sorts of chants and signs to be problematic. So even if the intent was nothing malicious, the impact has been. And the marchers don't care.

It's not for one group of people to tell another group of people what is or isn't offensive to them. Particularly a group that is as much a minority as the British Jewish community with a very troubling history and plenty of reasons to be worried. If the feedback is 'this is really upsetting' and your feedback to that is 'oh, we didn't mean it to be offensive so it's your fault for being offended' that's a really odd thing to say.

Of course I actually think the intent is exactly what it says on the tin, but I do keep wondering about the people who keep posting here about how I 'shouldn't' be upset by it because they mean it in some other (unclear) way.

The word 'intifada' is triggering to my entire community and mostly used by terrorists who want me dead. Whatever it's original meaning, it means something else altogether now.

SharonEllis · 14/10/2025 17:05

PurpleThistle7 · 14/10/2025 16:57

I think what's super gross is that many, many people have been telling the marchers that they find these sorts of chants and signs to be problematic. So even if the intent was nothing malicious, the impact has been. And the marchers don't care.

It's not for one group of people to tell another group of people what is or isn't offensive to them. Particularly a group that is as much a minority as the British Jewish community with a very troubling history and plenty of reasons to be worried. If the feedback is 'this is really upsetting' and your feedback to that is 'oh, we didn't mean it to be offensive so it's your fault for being offended' that's a really odd thing to say.

Of course I actually think the intent is exactly what it says on the tin, but I do keep wondering about the people who keep posting here about how I 'shouldn't' be upset by it because they mean it in some other (unclear) way.

The word 'intifada' is triggering to my entire community and mostly used by terrorists who want me dead. Whatever it's original meaning, it means something else altogether now.

Thank you for such a clear post explaining the undeniable impact. Not only do the marches continue in the face of being told how Jewish people feel but they are defiant in dismissing the fears of the community. Its unforgivable.

Why do you not listen @FreedomandPeace ?
And by the way nobody said the march was 'solely' for the purpose of anything. You slipped that word in yourself.

FreedomandPeace · 14/10/2025 17:16

SharonEllis · 14/10/2025 17:05

Thank you for such a clear post explaining the undeniable impact. Not only do the marches continue in the face of being told how Jewish people feel but they are defiant in dismissing the fears of the community. Its unforgivable.

Why do you not listen @FreedomandPeace ?
And by the way nobody said the march was 'solely' for the purpose of anything. You slipped that word in yourself.

Here is the original post

‘They are clear what they are marching for ‘

not some are
or
there was an element within

That wording clearly shows the poster is saying ‘they’ ie all of them ( as they means as such unless there is a caveat)
are marching for the two purposes they stated

Theres absolutely nothing in the news on that. No Hamas flags on the Manchester Marches
nothing on mass arrests

A demo like that would have been all over the papers. Yet nothing !

Everyone has a right to free speech , within the law, and I will always stand by that.

Why would would you still have pro Palestinian marches apart from now instilling more fear into the Jewish community
defrazzled · 14/10/2025 17:17

@FreedomandPeace is is weird, there was Police presence and they did nothing.
There is horrific Anti-Semitic messages posted daily on X but no one is arrested.
Why is this happening in the UK?
Everyone I know who lives near Manchester, Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Halifax, Huddersfield and Bradford see this regularly and no one is ever arrested.
I do not know where you live but I know what is happening here and it is terrifying. The only Orthadox Jews I know have left the area.
Believe what you want, it doesn't matter to me but I will not lie to make MN readers comfortable.

Mildorado · 14/10/2025 17:19

@PurpleThistle7 thank you for that, and I'm sorry that this has made you fearful in your own country. You make some good points and I get really frustrated at how some people excuse some of the behaviour, chanting and placards at these events.
It's not about curtailing free speech or telling people to "shut up". It's about the participants respecting the difference between peaceful and hateful protest, and how their behaviour impacts others.

Chicaontour · 14/10/2025 17:22

Because i want to show my support to the Palestinian community and the 61,000 people who were massacred in an orchaestrated genocide which was live streamed to the world with little real consequences. I abhor Hanas and i despise the Israeli genocidists

FreedomandPeace · 14/10/2025 17:23

defrazzled · 14/10/2025 17:17

@FreedomandPeace is is weird, there was Police presence and they did nothing.
There is horrific Anti-Semitic messages posted daily on X but no one is arrested.
Why is this happening in the UK?
Everyone I know who lives near Manchester, Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Halifax, Huddersfield and Bradford see this regularly and no one is ever arrested.
I do not know where you live but I know what is happening here and it is terrifying. The only Orthadox Jews I know have left the area.
Believe what you want, it doesn't matter to me but I will not lie to make MN readers comfortable.

I don’t do Twitter x and I’m glad I don’t because I have read they are horrible places for many people.
Reddit I’ve heard too can be much the same

I agree people who post hate speech etc should be charged. I have no idea how that happens I’m not in the police.

Of course everyone should be protected against all hate crimes and everyone who commits them should be arrested.

My comments above don’t relate to those though

Mildorado · 14/10/2025 17:24

defrazzled · 14/10/2025 17:17

@FreedomandPeace is is weird, there was Police presence and they did nothing.
There is horrific Anti-Semitic messages posted daily on X but no one is arrested.
Why is this happening in the UK?
Everyone I know who lives near Manchester, Bolton, Bury, Rochdale, Halifax, Huddersfield and Bradford see this regularly and no one is ever arrested.
I do not know where you live but I know what is happening here and it is terrifying. The only Orthadox Jews I know have left the area.
Believe what you want, it doesn't matter to me but I will not lie to make MN readers comfortable.

I live in one of these areas and have become very concerned. I think it's escalated into a really serious issue.

EmeraldShamrock000 · 14/10/2025 17:27

inamarina · 14/10/2025 16:34

Me too, in principle.. How would one remove them though? At the moment, they seem to be the ones removing everyone standing in their way.

Foreign Troops will have to go in and physically chase them out, like the Taliban.
It was good while it lasted, unfortunately break away terror groups rule in the ME.

Twiglets1 · 14/10/2025 17:27

Chicaontour · 14/10/2025 17:22

Because i want to show my support to the Palestinian community and the 61,000 people who were massacred in an orchaestrated genocide which was live streamed to the world with little real consequences. I abhor Hanas and i despise the Israeli genocidists

Ok that's your opinion but seeing as Jewish people in the UK have nothing to do with what is happening in Gaza & you know from MN that they find the protests intimidating, don't you think it's an idea to find a different way to show support?

Like raising money for Palestinian charities or boycotting Israeli products or companies.

SharonEllis · 14/10/2025 17:28

FreedomandPeace · 14/10/2025 17:23

I don’t do Twitter x and I’m glad I don’t because I have read they are horrible places for many people.
Reddit I’ve heard too can be much the same

I agree people who post hate speech etc should be charged. I have no idea how that happens I’m not in the police.

Of course everyone should be protected against all hate crimes and everyone who commits them should be arrested.

My comments above don’t relate to those though

You say the things we have all seen & heard have not happened because there were not 'mass arrests'. But you are so incurious as not to look into this further. Not to look into the well documented cases of open hate speech that have not been prosecuted. And you're clear you don't care.

A Jewish person has come on to explain what happens and how it impacts her community. You are very clear that you don't care.

Its useful for everyone to see this exchange.

FreedomandPeace · 14/10/2025 17:32

Twiglets1 · 14/10/2025 17:27

Ok that's your opinion but seeing as Jewish people in the UK have nothing to do with what is happening in Gaza & you know from MN that they find the protests intimidating, don't you think it's an idea to find a different way to show support?

Like raising money for Palestinian charities or boycotting Israeli products or companies.

People are doing those things aswell

Many Demonstrations have counter demonstrations whatever the course
We can’t shut down free speech so willingly
Look at the placards with
cut a terfs head off
gouge a terfs eyes out

direct placards calling for killing women.

Have women called for all trans supportive demos to be banned….No

Chicaontour · 14/10/2025 17:36

Twiglets1 · 14/10/2025 17:27

Ok that's your opinion but seeing as Jewish people in the UK have nothing to do with what is happening in Gaza & you know from MN that they find the protests intimidating, don't you think it's an idea to find a different way to show support?

Like raising money for Palestinian charities or boycotting Israeli products or companies.

The Israeli state have killed more people today and I have also donated to Palestnian causes, MSF etc. I am very vocal of my condembation of the Israeli state and hugely supportive abd appreciative of the Jewish people who stand against genocide.

Wedonttalkaboutboris · 14/10/2025 17:39

Ihatetomatoes · 14/10/2025 08:26

The famine ended pretty quickly. When you see pictures of the famine in many countries it's awful. There were cries of mass starvation for over a year but apart from sad images of children with medical conditions it was thankfully untrue.

Misinformation. Lots of babies and children with no medical conditions have died of malnutrition/starvation.

SharonEllis · 14/10/2025 17:46

FreedomandPeace · 14/10/2025 17:32

People are doing those things aswell

Many Demonstrations have counter demonstrations whatever the course
We can’t shut down free speech so willingly
Look at the placards with
cut a terfs head off
gouge a terfs eyes out

direct placards calling for killing women.

Have women called for all trans supportive demos to be banned….No

And the police have made atrocious decisions in allowing so much of that sort of incitement to violence against women. What has that got to do with what we're talking about? You have a choice to join a protest calling for violence against women. A decent person would not take part even if they did not wish to incite violence themselves. The same applies to the many thousand who walk alongside those calling for violence against Jews and 'innocently' chant things they don't really understand. Ignorance is no longer an excuse.

Twiglets1 · 14/10/2025 17:47

Chicaontour · 14/10/2025 17:36

The Israeli state have killed more people today and I have also donated to Palestnian causes, MSF etc. I am very vocal of my condembation of the Israeli state and hugely supportive abd appreciative of the Jewish people who stand against genocide.

IDF soldiers have killed people that crossed the yellow line they had retreated to as per the ceasefire agreement, and didn't respond to being told to move back.

Hamas have not handed the dead hostages back in close to the number they said they would.

Either thing could trigger the ceasefire ending ... let's hope it doesn't.

Let's stick to the subject of this thread. The other things can be debated elsewhere.

Gloriia · 14/10/2025 17:48

Chicaontour · 14/10/2025 17:36

The Israeli state have killed more people today and I have also donated to Palestnian causes, MSF etc. I am very vocal of my condembation of the Israeli state and hugely supportive abd appreciative of the Jewish people who stand against genocide.

Terrorists/gangs approaching no go areas told to stop and continued? Well yes what do you expect tea and biscuits?

Meanwhile hamas/any old group continue to murder other hamas members/any old groups. It's a lawless cesspit.

Gloriia · 14/10/2025 17:49

Wedonttalkaboutboris · 14/10/2025 17:39

Misinformation. Lots of babies and children with no medical conditions have died of malnutrition/starvation.

Says who Tom Fletcher the UN person who said 14000 babies would die and had to retract it as it was false?

inamarina · 14/10/2025 18:03

SharonEllis · 14/10/2025 17:46

And the police have made atrocious decisions in allowing so much of that sort of incitement to violence against women. What has that got to do with what we're talking about? You have a choice to join a protest calling for violence against women. A decent person would not take part even if they did not wish to incite violence themselves. The same applies to the many thousand who walk alongside those calling for violence against Jews and 'innocently' chant things they don't really understand. Ignorance is no longer an excuse.

And the police have made atrocious decisions in allowing so much of that sort of incitement to violence against women.

Yes, I would question whether “cut a terf’s head off gouge a terf’s eyes out” should be covered by freedom of speech.
I definitely wouldn’t welcome such speech being applied to other groups as well as women.

JaneJeffer · 14/10/2025 18:11

Watch the news

noblegiraffe · 14/10/2025 18:31

Here are people celebrating October 7th in Birmingham https://x.com/habibi_uk/status/1974566508178391462?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

Here's a speech in Leeds, calling for the eradication of Israel, getting rid of the Zionist maggots and the establishment of a single Palestinian state. https://x.com/habibi_uk/status/1789631217161093223?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

People marching on the streets of London calling for the army of Mohammed to murder Jews (note the tweet says behead, but the chant is just for general killing of Jews not beheading) https://x.com/lizarosen0000/status/1973829685315534998?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

habibi (@habibi_uk) on X

Today in Birmingham, the Hamas atrocities of 7 October 2023 were justified and cheered. The banner: “Glory to our martyrs and the Palestinian resistance”. It features a red triangle, a symbol of support for Hamas and a swastika for the 21st Century....

https://x.com/habibi_uk/status/1974566508178391462?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

Wedonttalkaboutboris · 14/10/2025 18:40

@Gloriia - Putting aside the fact that babies and children with pre-existing conditions don’t count in your eyes. (One of the ‘pre-existing’ conditions is being dairy intolerant for god sake. My youngest had to have milk free formula- should she have just died first because I couldn’t access specific formula?)

There’s lots of documented evidence that previously healthy children in Gaza have died from starvation. Hospitals have reported children with no underlying conditions succumbing to malnutrition. I can name some of them for you:

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/philosophyreligionspirituality/5383956-one-child-a-day-remembering-gazas-children?page=1

https://www.thedailyfile.org/forcibly-involved

UNRWA and The Lancet estimate tens of thousands of children under six are acutely malnourished, many severely. WHO data also shows record-high acute malnutrition among under-fives, with dozens of deaths already this year. This is the direct result of the blockade and ongoing conflict, not pre-existing medical conditions.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gaza-hospitals-say-kids-without-underlying-health-conditions-now-dying-of-starvation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/08/almost-55000-children-in-gaza-acutely-malnourished-lancet-study-estimates

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/nearly-12000-children-under-five-gaza-have-acute-malnutrition-says-who-2025-08-07

Almost 55,000 preschool children in Gaza acutely malnourished, Lancet study estimates

Study shows clear link between Israeli aid restrictions and malnutrition among children aged between six months and five years

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/08/almost-55000-children-in-gaza-acutely-malnourished-lancet-study-estimates

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