ICJ: SA Genocide Case vs. ISR - part 2

[HeidiInTheBigCity]

1st thread is full - here comes part 2!

NB Hearing starts at 12.00 [GMT] and 1pm Hague-time

Thanks alot for the update

It will be really interesting to see outcome - I have a strong feeling that the ICJ is going to call for a halt in fighting. Not only due the evidence presented by SA, but also because it would be expedient politically.
The Israeli government is not listening to the US, the Houthis are not being controlled and impacting on international trade (much to the chagrin of world leaders I imagine) and I wonder if Netanyahu’s proposal for ceasefire is in anticipation of expected outcome.

If they request Israel to stop , does Israel have to stop ? Or can they ignore it? What are the consequences of a decision in favor of SA?

From what I read it's legally binding but the ICJ have no way of enforcing it.
If that is wrong somebody please correct me

I don’t know @EasterIssland - but if we consider that there is already a court case in the US, a judicial review in UK- this will increase pressure for states currently opposed to a ceasefire - as well as others - to reconsider any sales of weapons to Israel for fear of breaking international and home laws

eg in UK

« Under criterion 2c of the UK's arms export licensing criteria the Government should not grant a licence where there is a clear risk that the items might be used in the commission of a serious violation of IHL. »

« Arms trade law is very clear that licences should not be granted where there is a clear risk that they might be used in a serious violation of IHL. »

also laws in US which Biden introduced ironically

https://www.parliament.uk/external/committees/commons-select/business-innovation-and-skills/news/2016/uk-arms-yemen-report-published-16-17/

That's my understanding too

Thanks. For the replies. Hopefully one way or the other we can see the end to this war soon.

The end seems to be further away all the time. Although i know there will be things happening i have no clue about.

I just hope it ends soon and the population of gaza can find the strength to rebuild their shattered lives and the hostages get home to their families and rebuild their lives too.

Although of course no one involved in this will ever be the same again.

Here's an article about possible scenarios we can expect from tomorrow.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/25/what-will-the-icj-announce-on-israel-gaza-war

I believe Netanyahu has already said he’d ignore whatever the ICJ orders so if they do order emergency measures they are likely to be symbolic although potentially useful in exerting further political pressure against Israel I suppose.

https://www.euronews.com/2024/01/14/100-days-into-the-war-netanyahu-says-no-one-will-stop-us

Hopefully like some posters said some international governments (aka Sunak I’m talking about you) think twice about continue funding this war and providing weapons if icj tomorrow suggests this needs to deescalate and he doesn’t do it

I was curious about the background of the ICJ judges so was reading a bit about them. The father of the German judge Georg Nolte is named Eric Nolte. He was a well known historian and philosopher who specialized in facism.

From his wiki page:

In his 1991 book Geschichtsdenken im 20. Jahrhundert (Historical Thinking in the 20th Century), Nolte asserted that the 20th century had produced three “extraordinary states”, namely Germany, the Soviet Union, and Israel. He claimed that all three were “abnormal once”, but whereas the Soviet Union and Germany were now “normal” states, Israel was still “abnormal” and, in Nolte's view, in danger of becoming a fascist state that might commit genocide against the Palestinians.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_Nolte

How crazy is it that Eric Nolte’s prediction came true and his own son ended up on the panel of judges adjudicating Israel’s genocide against Palestinians ?

I fully expect the German judge to vote against South Africa btw - partly as that is his country’s political stance but also to distance himself from his father.

Israel was always going to ignore any ICJ ruling if it went against them. Forget about Netanyahu and his government, they're a lost cause.

This case is about getting the atrocities committed on record and applying pressure on Netanyahu Western partners.

America and the UK have elections this year, if South Africa gets an interim order, these countries will have to put their support on record formally, potentially opening themselves up for prosecution later.

If no interim order is given, then it exposes these institutions for what they are, extensions/puppets of American, UK and European hegemony and not fit for purpose.

Yes hopefully it will give a necessary push - if not to act - then at least to stop being complicit. They won’t change course out of any sense of morality but fear of legal action and liability may be more persuasive.

Thanks a lot for sharing that article. I believe this is the scenario mentioned that we will get tomorrow :

Some commentators believe that the court may fall short of ordering a full ceasefire. It could, instead, order access to adequate humanitarian relief, Gordon said, adding that this would be a win for Israel.
In such a case, Israel could easily avoid international ramifications by saying it would allow more aid in, then not actually doing much to facilitate it. Additionally, aid agencies have said previously that the arrival of adequate humanitarian aid in Gaza without a ceasefire is unrealistic, as aid trucks have been unable to reach parts of Gaza, such as the north, due to obstacles created by Israel’s siege and violence in the enclave.

I was thinking they might do this when I read the article. I was also wondering if they could say something about necessity to negotiate terms of a ceasefire?
Politically - Western governments may support a ceasefire - there’s been increased calls for this and it may stop situation in ME escalating

The fact that the result is coming out sooner than expected - sense of urgency due recognition of suffering?

I really hope you’re right. At this stage anything is better than nothing. Momentum is slowly building for a ceasefire so I hope the ICJ come out with something that helps tip the balance in the right direction .

I think that’s the only thing that is well and truly completely undeniable even by Israel. the scale and depth of suffering is the one thing that isn’t controversial - everyone can see it and Israel can’t argue it. That’s why I think the only provisional measures we’ll get tomorrow will be about humanitarian aid.

Well let’s hope that there will need to be concrete evidence show aid is getting to where it is meant to be unfettered. Perhaps they might also request safe zones that don’t then get bombed- or that adequate measures are take to ensure those zones have been actually evacuated by civilians? All the things IDF could have done….

Yes I thought that tho after reading the link

The ICJ will not deal with the core question of whether Israel is committing genocide on Friday. For now, it will only announce, at 1pm local time (12:00 GMT) whether it can order provisional or emergency measures in Gaza

this is not the end of this case. So it’ll continue and any urgent measures I guess have to be in place asap rather than when the case is over in a few years time

I think the speed may be due to 5 judges terms on the ICJ coming to an end and new judges starting in February.
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/11/1143417

Court going live in 10 minutes.