You've signposted people to an academic and the defense editor at The Economist, both very accomplished but neither have fought in a war. The consistent themes of the various rent an opinion and military experts and analysts (all of whom have seen multiple tours of duty in active combat zones) who have contributed to podcasts and YouTube interviews I have listened to is that the IDF will struggle to eradicate Hamas because:
- The IDF bombed Gaza to smithereens before the ground invasion, this always make life harder for the offensive force. There are plenty of examples of this from the 20th century.
- The IDF is a largely inexperienced, reservist force whose main tasks have been patrolling the West Bank, manning check points, shooting and beating unarmed civilians and monitoring the Gaza border rather than active combat against a trained force.
- The tunnels make it easier for Hamas to pop up from under ground, attack and disappear again. This is how they have destroyed so many Israeli tanks.
- Hamas know Gaza.
- You cannot bomb an ideology into oblivion.
The hostages are not a concern for Israel because of the Hannibal directive, this is evidenced by their bombing without concern for where hostages might be, 50 are reported to have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. Also evidenced by the tank shelling at one of the Kibbutzim on 7th October which killed at least a dozen hostages.
The Israeli government is lying about the number of IDF casualties. The number of reported deaths seems accurate but a report today claims the data shows that 20% of those deaths are caused by "friendly fire" which is hardly surprising when you think about the stress a bunch of 20 year olds, with no combat experience, must be experiencing in Gaza. The number of injured IDF soldiers was reported as 5000 for a brief time but was the amended to 2000. Haaretz investigated and found that the rate of hospital admissions supports the original 5000 figure and that 2000 was probably a more accurate number for the soldiers left permanently disabled. That's 2000 young men and women left permanently disabled after a little more than a month of fighting.
The 2009 Amnesty International Report: 22 Days of Death and Destruction found evidence that the IDF use Palestinians as human shields but little to corroborate claims that Hamas do, although it keeps being repeated, as they say every accusation is a confession.
I have no doubt that Israel would obliterate Gaza if they felt confident they could take on Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon and Iran at the same time and win but it seems here, at least, they are more realistic about their capabilities.