To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election

[Edenspirits73]

All I have seen all over social media is that Reform are going to win the election 🤪🙄 (probably Russian BOTS just like BREXIT)

The poll I have attached below is from Opinium who got the 2019 general election result almost exactly right with their polling methods and is one of the more recent polls. The research methods they use hold up better to scrutiny! Ipsos Mori were also pretty spot on so these are the polls I tend to pay more attention to.

Aibu to think that we aren’t in for a Brexit style shock are we?

I live in hope that the U.K. really isn’t full of reform voting racists 🤞🏻🙈

Win the election as in get an overall majority? Literally no chance of that. Last time I looked even the most optimistic of polls had them on about 12% vote share. I think on gut feeling it’ll be maybe 2 seats as above. I can’t in any circumstances imagine them getting a majority or even enough to be the Opposition.

Of course they're not going to win. However, if a single reform candidate wins a seat, that's one too many.

I feel the same about them as if they were the BNP. If Farage gets elected, that will be even more wall-to-wall TV appearances when parties like Lib Dems and Greens get far more popular vote share but a fraction of the TV time.

There's also the worry that the Tories could get so thoroughly smashed that they merge with Reform, thereby giving them more power.

We need to worry about the election after this one more than the current one.

Yes- I have seen tons of stuff ranging from winning enough seats to be the official opposition to winning the whole bloody election.

Loads of slightly threatening ‘the U.K. is undergoing a political revolution and won’t know what’s hit it’ type content. 🤪 There was an outlier (gammon) poll that only surveyed GB news that showed them
winning but they only surveyed people who watch GB news!!!

While polling gets a lot of stick, I do think Ipsos and Opinium are the most reputable and accurate. So I think same- something as above!

Yes agreed re BNP. They are the National front in suits.

And yes agree re next election too

No they aren’t.

But - they will disrupt it, as their voters are likely to come from the left and right.

The nature of the FPTP system makes it difficult for them to win any seats - let alone win a majority.

No, but it is slightly irritating that they're the only ones out there I've seen talking to people. Haven't had a sniff of the other parties anywhere

They aren't going to win; they'll maybe get a max of 5 seats. Too many in my opinion. I see their supporters bots are already framing up for a stolen election à la Trump with questions over postal votes, support not being matched by seats etc.

I hope they don't get any seats
It's a scandal that again farage and his play thing party are even in the conversation.

I haven’t heard anything from our Reform candidate but I have had people on the doorstep and letters from Labour and Lib Dem. I suspect they’re targeting their activity to constituencies where they have a chance of winning, which isn’t here.

Yes, funny how they don’t like the FPTP system too when it doesn’t go in their favour.
I will vote green as likely to get a green MP where I live and they haven’t had MPs that reflect the number of people that vote for them for years!

The only ex left voters reform would get are the one's who pretended to be lefties to horrify their parents.

Farage has a good track record for losing elections, but he could win a seat, and Lee Anderson might retain his seat (but this is by no means certain). That's about it.

Definitely not. They wont even be the new opposition. People say they'll vote for this type of party in the polls then they get cold feet when they actually go to vote. It will be a labour landslde.

The danger is not them getting into power, it's their influence on those who are.

Plus - Farage doesn’t want to win the bloody election! He doesn’t even want to be leader of the opposition right now. Let’s face it, Reform’s policies are fairly shoddy, entirely ideologically-led and populist, not something that would stand up to any scrutiny. They’re not a party set up to lead in any way as they stand. Whether you agree with them or not, the people involved are rank amateurs drawn from the dregs of politics and not fit to govern or even oppose government.

I wish the Left would learn about what Reform are doing to get so much traction.

I don't mean adopting dog whistle policies either!

I mean focusing on the politics of emotion instead of just policy talk and 'fiscal straitjackets'.

The political landscape of today is different to 10 years ago. People get their news from social media, their opinions from social media, and their emotional sustenance from social media.

Labour have a decent enough campaign online, but Reform are banking on the fact that like Brexit, people's buttons get pushed by emotional content rather than the simple presentation of rational facts.

Will it be a problem in the overall result? Probably not, which is why Labour are playing it safe.

It's just an observation I have had over the years, that Labour is very emotion-less at times when it comes to content and attracting a voter.

Of course they're not going to win. FPTP makes it almost impossible for smaller parties to get seats, let alone win outright.

The Reform/UKIP/BNP faithful and bots are setting it up to look like a conspiracy robbed them of the election - it's straight out of the Trump playbook. Farage has seen it work on the poorly educated and racist in the US, and now is bringing it over here. It's utterly depressing and terrifying. Their supporters will be outraged and think they've been robbed, while Farage will be delighted to win more than two seats and will be a shit MP for Clacton (somewhere that really needs an MP who will fight for them).

Well in my constituency, Reform's wonderful vetting procedure didn't pick up that the candidate was in fact dead! Its one of the safest Labour seats going, so I guess they just pulled a name out of their arse, and nobody checked.

😲

@JacquesHarlow notwithstanding
my point above about them being amateurs, I actually agree with this. Faced with politicians who constantly waffle, obfuscate and drone on about unrelated matters, it’s no surprise that voters are drawn to someone who actually answers a question, mentions the unmentionable and shows personality. I just wish it wasn’t the odious Mr Farage doing it. But if they don’t learn from it they’re fools. See also the Democrats in the US who are trying to fight Trump with someone who looks as if he doesn’t know what day it is.

Zombie apocalypse! 😬

Christ, 27% of people on the voting on here think the thread is unreasonable - hoping thats not because they are all voting in the bloody racists 🙈

If that poll is accurate, Ed Davey better start shaping up as leader of the official opposition, and the SNP are in for a right hammering! Here's hoping it's correct.

It’s because they’re the ones who have fallen for the shit the Russian bots are posting.

Opinium were virtually spot on in 2019 so here’s hoping 🤞🏻