To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election

[Edenspirits73]

All I have seen all over social media is that Reform are going to win the election 🤪🙄 (probably Russian BOTS just like BREXIT)

The poll I have attached below is from Opinium who got the 2019 general election result almost exactly right with their polling methods and is one of the more recent polls. The research methods they use hold up better to scrutiny! Ipsos Mori were also pretty spot on so these are the polls I tend to pay more attention to.

Aibu to think that we aren’t in for a Brexit style shock are we?

I live in hope that the U.K. really isn’t full of reform voting racists 🤞🏻🙈

That’s not racism. Being concerned about immigration is not racist.

Still don't see the racism 🙄.. not wanting criminals and illegal migration isn't racist. Most of "us" come the law abiding way.

Anyway, you do you. Not sure why a party that would be lucky to get a seat are actually threatening 😂

Go and enjoy the sunshine and chill out.

It’s full of dog whistle racist lies about immigrants ‘coming over here’.

Genuinely is scary that people can’t see it.

As I have said, it’s full of dog whistle lies about people ‘coming over here’

It’s terrifying that people can’t recognise it for what it is. A massive pack of lies.

But you’re voting for the other party?

The talk of a massive majority is a scare tactic by the Conservatives. The most important thing if Labour win to ensure a decent opposition is for the Tories to BE that decent opposition. I suspect they won’t as they will then decide to carry on fighting among themselves for quite a while. And in that case the Labour's majority is immaterial. In practical terms for passing legislation the size of a majority doesn’t make a lot of difference once it’s more than 20/30 - the supermajority is a meaningless term in UK politics.

Even on current polling it’s most likely that the Conservatives will win a similar number of seats to 1997 at least.

It’s genuinely scary that being concerned about immigration is now classed as a crime according to you.
British people first encompasses ALL British, regardless of skin colour, regardless of status.
You seem to see British as purely white when we aren’t.

Was that poster Farage used during the Brexit campaign, racist? Titled “Breaking point: the EU has failed us all.” with a huge queue of brown people waiting to get into our country. They seem to be using very similar language.

How do you think Reform will actually physically deal with immigration?
What will they do that governments before them have not?

Exactly.

I have made no suggestion at all that I think British people are white. You have no idea about the colour of my skin.

Britain has been made up from immigrants since the start of civilisation - to think that we are anything but a society founded on immigrants is ignorant and shows a total lack of historical knowledge.

It’s not conservative scare tactics, it’s coming from the left! I hardly think they’re going to be an effective opposition with 60 seats (see poll quoted up thread). And yes the size of the majority is very relevant, the greater the majority the more they can “do what they want” as doesn’t matter if they have to kick out a few MPs for disobeying the whip.

Yes we are. My grandad is an Italian immigrant. Doesn’t mean to say that people can’t be concerned about the level of immigration. It doesn’t make them racist.

This is from 2013 and it’s still right - the only difference is that UKIP is mentioned rather than reform.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=1cgeXd5kRDg

Seriously, the size of the majority seriously doesn’t matter much - look back over the last 30 years. Major is the only leader who started with a majority who ended up without on and his was never large to start with. Maybe I should say no difference between 40 and 140? And who on the left is warning against this? All I’ve seen is Conservative campaign material and candidates talking about it. It’s their last ditch attempt to scare people into voting Tory.

The polls vary wildly - several still have the Conservatives well into three figures. Plus of course the other opposition parties. None of the polls are really accounting reliably for the 25% or so of voters who are either undecided or wavering.

I totally agree we need an opposition in a de strong democracy but voting for the party you don’t want to win to ensure that feels pretty high risk to me.

He is such a strong personality it is impossible to separate Farage from the Reform Party.
Surely the recent remarks about Russia and how they see Ukraine will have alienated some of his previously Conservative supporters.
Maybe a Parliamentary Party of one.

People can be manipulated into thinking immigration is the cause of all our woes BY racists though. Rather than systematic underfunding of public services/lack of new social housing/shifts in employment patterns/under investment in regions. It’s regularly shown that people massively over estimate how many immigrants we actually have.

We have an independent candidate whose sole claim is disproving Einstein!

Reform have NO PLANS to deal with immigration, they don’t need to, they won’t get into power. “controlled migration” (which is what we have now), “stop the boats” (some info around that would be nice … how about we did what we were doing pre-Brexit, no boat problem then).. “stop the gangs”(how?)

Immigration is not the problem, it never was .. we need immigrants, at all skills levels, we always have.

Of course they aren't, it's not a secret. They'll get votes but they'll be lucky to get one seat.

Perhaps glean your news from more reliable sources than nut jobs on social media?

“stop the gangs”(how?)

That’s Labour’s line btw. How indeed

FPTP will limit Reform - last guesstimate of seats, which I saw a few days ago, was 3.

I can't even begin to get worked up about who wins the election. As long as it's a fair vote and the people decide I'm all for the democratic voting system.

One thing I do know is whoever wins the rich will get richer and the poor will get shafted. It's been like this since the dawn of time and will never ever change.

Well if Labour get in let’s hope they can define what a woman is.

I’d have thought a good first step is more cooperation with France and reopening legal routes to claim asylum. The current government has actually started to work more closely with France on this, Labour are talking about increasing security cooperation with Europe and launching a Border Security Command to prosecute the gangs. Labour is looking at offshore processing in a third county ‘en route to their destination) so implying potentially somewhere in Europe. They also want to put resource into clearing the decision backlog to reduce the cost of accommodation and speed up either removals or the ability of successful asylum applications so people can start to contribute economically.

The Lib Dems would restore the legal right to come to the UK to claim asylum.

Reform plan to ‘send them back’ which even Suella Braverman decided not to try. Fine once they’ve taken us out of the ECHR (see above for many reasons why that is an awful prospect) but despite what they say in their ‘contract’ it is currently highly likely to be found to be illegal.

Do you think Labour can realistically prosecute trafficking networks?

No other country electorate is accepting that as the way to resolve this issue

Do we take leaders into our trial and prison system and how do you stop the next trafficker taking their place?

That’s if we can actually identify, locate and incarcerate them