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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election

225 replies

Edenspirits73 · 24/06/2024 11:26

All I have seen all over social media is that Reform are going to win the election 🤪🙄 (probably Russian BOTS just like BREXIT)

The poll I have attached below is from Opinium who got the 2019 general election result almost exactly right with their polling methods and is one of the more recent polls. The research methods they use hold up better to scrutiny! Ipsos Mori were also pretty spot on so these are the polls I tend to pay more attention to.

Aibu to think that we aren’t in for a Brexit style shock are we?

I live in hope that the U.K. really isn’t full of reform voting racists 🤞🏻🙈

To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election
OP posts:
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Aladdinzane · 24/06/2024 13:18

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:15

How?

Because its used to dismiss allegations of racism because they can't be racist because....

When in fact candidates ( and their leader) have been shown to have made racist remarks and are using racist/anti immigrant sentiment to drive their election campaign.

Next.

TubeScreamer · 24/06/2024 13:20

I think they’ll win a significant % of votes across the country but very few seats.

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:20

Aladdinzane · 24/06/2024 13:18

Because its used to dismiss allegations of racism because they can't be racist because....

When in fact candidates ( and their leader) have been shown to have made racist remarks and are using racist/anti immigrant sentiment to drive their election campaign.

Next.

Anti immigration is not racist. And where are these racist quotes? Can you link them because I haven’t seen them.

cupcaske123 · 24/06/2024 13:22

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:20

Anti immigration is not racist. And where are these racist quotes? Can you link them because I haven’t seen them.

Have you been hiding under a rock? Reform have lost loads of candidates mainly due to racism. There's been some far right and woman hating as well, but mostly racism. Some of its quite shocking.

Molly499 · 24/06/2024 13:23

Youdontevengohere · 24/06/2024 13:15

You hope Labour destroy our economy?

Nobody hopes Labour will destroy the economy but for anyone who has lived through a labour government it pretty much is a given as I'm sure they always have. Plus a lot of their promises are not funded, they are relying on capital growth which is slowly starting now but is high risk. They will also have a tough time with the unions who do not support their manifesto.

bluelavender · 24/06/2024 13:24

They wont win

They could end up with a fairly large share of the vote with only one or two seats; and that might cause some wider dissatisfaction with people feeling unrepresented.

I hope that with the bigger profile that they currently have they get asked tougher questions that go beyond the bluster

Youdontevengohere · 24/06/2024 13:24

Molly499 · 24/06/2024 13:23

Nobody hopes Labour will destroy the economy but for anyone who has lived through a labour government it pretty much is a given as I'm sure they always have. Plus a lot of their promises are not funded, they are relying on capital growth which is slowly starting now but is high risk. They will also have a tough time with the unions who do not support their manifesto.

The PP literally said ‘let’s hope so’.

Locutus2000 · 24/06/2024 13:25

Edenspirits73 · 24/06/2024 11:37

Yes- I have seen tons of stuff ranging from winning enough seats to be the official opposition to winning the whole bloody election.

Loads of slightly threatening ‘the U.K. is undergoing a political revolution and won’t know what’s hit it’ type content. 🤪 There was an outlier (gammon) poll that only surveyed GB news that showed them
winning but they only surveyed people who watch GB news!!!

While polling gets a lot of stick, I do think Ipsos and Opinium are the most reputable and accurate. So I think same- something as above!

I'm in favour of keeping quiet and letting them waste their votes.

Just means an even greater Labour majority in ten days or so.

Aladdinzane · 24/06/2024 13:25

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:20

Anti immigration is not racist. And where are these racist quotes? Can you link them because I haven’t seen them.

" I have not seen them"

The internet is easy to use.

Farage has a long history.

Mulhollandmagoo · 24/06/2024 13:26

@TinklySnail Nigel Farage is a white supremacist!! That's a well-known fact, he'll tell you that himself, of course he's a racist!

Molly499 · 24/06/2024 13:26

Youdontevengohere · 24/06/2024 13:24

The PP literally said ‘let’s hope so’.

I think they meant that after Labour have destroyed the economy another party will get voted back in, that is what they are hoping for.

CalamitiousJoan · 24/06/2024 13:27

I think the polarisation is on both sides and how much you see of each depends to an extent on the media you see. But I agree that the lack of debate and exchange of views makes things poisonous.

I also think that it really is a massive mistake to dismiss Reform voters as all racists. It’s a protest vote. It’s ‘none of the above’. It’s like the Brexit vote was for a lot of people who felt forgotten and instead of acknowledging that a factor of the Conservative Party took it as a chance to build itself even further from people.

Not that some votes aren’t motivated by racism. You just have to look at the candidates to work that out.

Locutus2000 · 24/06/2024 13:28

fliptopbin · 24/06/2024 11:50

Well in my constituency, Reform's wonderful vetting procedure didn't pick up that the candidate was in fact dead! Its one of the safest Labour seats going, so I guess they just pulled a name out of their arse, and nobody checked.

Beyond satire.

Richard Tice, leader of Reform UK

Reform UK sorry for not knowing York candidate had died

The party says it is "mortified" it dropped a candidate for being "inactive" without knowing he had died.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-68788850

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:29

Aladdinzane · 24/06/2024 13:25

" I have not seen them"

The internet is easy to use.

Farage has a long history.

Yes and I haven’t seen any racist remarks. So link them so we can all see them and I will stand corrected.

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:30

Mulhollandmagoo · 24/06/2024 13:26

@TinklySnail Nigel Farage is a white supremacist!! That's a well-known fact, he'll tell you that himself, of course he's a racist!

And evidence of that? Racist because of his stance on immigration?

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:31

cupcaske123 · 24/06/2024 13:22

Have you been hiding under a rock? Reform have lost loads of candidates mainly due to racism. There's been some far right and woman hating as well, but mostly racism. Some of its quite shocking.

Well it seems no one can actually point out the racist quotes Farage has made. Can you?

LoreleiG · 24/06/2024 13:32

I haven’t seen a Reform candidate or leaflet in my True Blue area. Current predictions are a close call between LD and Tory, as usual. So I doubt there will be any surprises here.

ExtraOnions · 24/06/2024 13:33

Molly499 · 24/06/2024 13:23

Nobody hopes Labour will destroy the economy but for anyone who has lived through a labour government it pretty much is a given as I'm sure they always have. Plus a lot of their promises are not funded, they are relying on capital growth which is slowly starting now but is high risk. They will also have a tough time with the unions who do not support their manifesto.

The Conservatives have destroyed the economy over the last 14 years … in particular over the last 6… and we aren’t even getting better public services. Under the last Labour Govt I didn’t wait to see a GP, hospital waiting lists were 12 weeks, A&E waits were around 4 hours, Social Care was better funded, schools had more freedom, we had sure start centres … etc

Reforms budget is fantasy .. if they are serious, they need to 1) not be a 1 person party / personality cult .. and 2) have a better business case

CalamitiousJoan · 24/06/2024 13:36

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:31

Well it seems no one can actually point out the racist quotes Farage has made. Can you?

This is a good starting place.

Sensitive content
To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election
Mulhollandmagoo · 24/06/2024 13:36

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:30

And evidence of that? Racist because of his stance on immigration?

No, it's nothing to do with his views on immigration, he's just a racist! He spent his college years in a neo-facist group, sang Hitler youth songs and told Jewish kids that Hitler had the right idea! When he was questions, he laughed and said 'well of course I said some silly things' 🙄

People don't dislike Farage purely because of his views on immigration, they dislike him because he's an awful person, and not one that should be running a country!

And Incase you're wondering, his policy on climate change is the one most people are pissed off about, not his immigration policies!

DannyLovesFanny · 24/06/2024 13:37

TinklySnail · 24/06/2024 13:17

Which bit? The bit about migration? It is not racism to be concerned about immigration.

Correct, but it is according to the far left loonies.

Youdontevengohere · 24/06/2024 13:41

The people I am aware of who are openly voting Reform are, in fact, massive racists. So even if he wasn’t racist himself (he is), that is the sort of person he is (deliberately) appealing to.

Mulhollandmagoo · 24/06/2024 13:41

Couple more for you @TinklySnail

To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election
To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election
Fizzadora · 24/06/2024 13:42

You do know that most Conservatives don't tell anyone how they vote don't you?