To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election

[Edenspirits73]

All I have seen all over social media is that Reform are going to win the election 🤪🙄 (probably Russian BOTS just like BREXIT)

The poll I have attached below is from Opinium who got the 2019 general election result almost exactly right with their polling methods and is one of the more recent polls. The research methods they use hold up better to scrutiny! Ipsos Mori were also pretty spot on so these are the polls I tend to pay more attention to.

Aibu to think that we aren’t in for a Brexit style shock are we?

I live in hope that the U.K. really isn’t full of reform voting racists 🤞🏻🙈

They won’t win the election but the idea of them winning any seats is bad enough.

But yes there are a lot of russian bots on SM which will be promoting them.

Even Reform don't seem to think Reform are going to win the election.

To be fair @Edenspirits73 I don't think a huge majority of any one party in parliament is particularly healthy.

If Labour do get 466 seats, and the rest only 159 all put together (Plus the NI seats) then Labour have so large a majority and can do exactly what they want unchallenged. Even some dissenters in their own party will be absorbed by the huge block vote.

I am very glad though to see that the SNP has been exposed for the bunch of lying grifters that they are and their support has halved at least. Hopefully similar voting patterns at the Scottish election in 2026.

Oh please no one with even a passing knowledge of the parliamentary system thinks they're gonna get more than a handful of seats.

If we had PR it would be a different story as UKIP would already have got in in 2015 and would have built well on that in subsequent GEs.

Tank god for FPTP!

They won't win this one.

But if Farage gets elected, he'll cross the floor, join the Tories, take them over and THEN we'll be stuck with him because the stupid party members who thought Boris was such a nice boy and Liz Truss was such a good choice will vote for him.

Labour are going to have to do really well over the next five years...

I assume 34% of people think you are being unreasonable to even give this any headspace OP - Reform have got less chance of winning the election than Count Binface (whose policies are actually quite reasonable).

Well even if they don't win this time, they will next time because Labour are not going to fix anything...

On one of the debates Farage sounded like he was the only one being honest and talking sense…. Of course he’s neither of those things, but it looks like that when compared to the other politicians talking like politicians do.

On another point, I've not seen a single political post on social media. Not sure what they says about me!

Yes especially the 99p coin idea :)

I really hope so!!l

Am on Twitter - it’s an absolute bin fire!

And Facebook - really scary!

Faced with politicians who constantly waffle, obfuscate and drone on about unrelated matters, it’s no surprise that voters are drawn to someone who actually answers a question,

This is why many people outside Scotland thought Nicola Sturgeon did such a terrific job during the pandemic. Because they were basing their judgement on newsclips, and there is no doubt that she spoke clearly and more effectively than Boris with his tendency to bluster on about Greek myths. But you shouldn't be deciding who to vote for based on their communication skills.

I liked the National Service for all ex-PMs, and water bosses forced to swim in their own polluted rivers

🤣 Awesome! I hadn’t seen his actual manifesto- will be HILARIOUS if he did oust Sunak tho! Unlikely obvs!!!

Of course they are not going to win. A bigger bunch of self-deluded half-wits you would have to go a long way to find.

They won’t win but their rhetoric is capitalising on the huge sense of hopelessness and disengagement in traditional politics that is a widespread global phenomenon - no doubt in part from a world shaken up by Covid, and the impacts of climate change and conflict. In the UK it has been hugely exacerbated by the fact that our government has for a decade now been more preoccupied with its own internal fighting (ditto Labour to an extent) rather than usual policies, after the body blows of austerity and Brexit.

I understand Labour’s very cautious approach during this campaign but if they win they need to throw everything they can at making people feel heard, and sorting out our public services. It’s hard to know how they’ll achieve this; it’s massive challenge for anyone, and I believe that they’ll keep to their pledge on tax so good luck to them on spending. BUT if they can’t shift the dial, then the next election scares me.

I do think Farage will do in the House of Commons what he did in the EP. The life of a backbencher is dull, and constituency surgeries in Clayton duller still. He’ll fall out with his other Reform members because he does that every time. The Tory party will fall into all out civil war over whether he should rejoin (and the current publicity about Putin is more about that than the election I reckon) but ultimately for the next 2/3 years they will be irrelevant compared to how the government performs. Farage is too divisive a figure to see the Tories back on the path to power and although Reform is currently polling higher support among younger people than the Conservatives it still remains another party primarily for older voters.

What worries me more really is the emergence in the next five years of a ‘better’ populist right winger without the toxic associations that Farage has for a big proportion of voters.

I'm no fan of Farage and won't be voting reform, but it's this sort of sneering attitude that's so common from the left, the idea that other people can't possibly have a different opinion on what is important to them from a political party.

There's no asking questions as to why so people want to vote reform, it seems to be just shouting 'racists' at them without getting to the bottom of why and accusing people of being bots.

Personally I don't understand how anybody could vote Labour but am happy to try to understand the reasons somebody would, as long as it's actual reasons not just 'I hate Tories' which is what the answer always seem to be. I don't need to know what the Tories have done wrong in answer to every question, I want to know what Labout would DO.

There's no debate anymore, no nuanced arguments, and I do think the left are the worst for this.

They won’t win many seats but they will get enough votes in general that the two big parties should sit down and listen. Because those voters won’t just disappear if you ignore them and call them stupid and racist. They will spread their views and likely grab more voters as we (the U.K.) continue down this spiral of shit.

Then both Labour and Conservatives are proven shit (if labour win this time) then where will the voters go… Not Lib because their shit on a coalition is still in memory. That leaves you with the current tiny parties and I hardly see the likes of the greens winning over all the disgruntled either.

They aren’t going to win .. a lot of money will be raised by Reform PLC (a private company owned partly by Farage).

They might get 3 or 4 MPs .. one of which will be Farage, as they have parachuted him into an area with a large number of Reform voters. After a few months, Farage will “cross the floor” to join the Tories, and will lauch a campaign to become Tory leader (which has been his ambition for a long time)

Reform will go the same way as other fringe parties, and disappear into infighting

"There's no debate anymore, no nuanced arguments, and I do think the left are the worst for this."

The irony.