To think Reform aren’t going to win the bloody election

[Edenspirits73]

All I have seen all over social media is that Reform are going to win the election 🤪🙄 (probably Russian BOTS just like BREXIT)

The poll I have attached below is from Opinium who got the 2019 general election result almost exactly right with their polling methods and is one of the more recent polls. The research methods they use hold up better to scrutiny! Ipsos Mori were also pretty spot on so these are the polls I tend to pay more attention to.

Aibu to think that we aren’t in for a Brexit style shock are we?

I live in hope that the U.K. really isn’t full of reform voting racists 🤞🏻🙈

It's not fine once taken out of the ECHR, I've no idea why Farage thinks that. It contravenes the Refugee convention and maritime law, just for starters.

We can't just dump them back on n France, France won't take them. If we could do that, we'd have already done it.

I don’t know how successful it will be to be honest. It feels very much like the policy of a public prosecutor doesn’t it?! But these are all ideas that other parties are putting forward that are more thought through than Send Them Back.

Personally I’d go for a system that made it easier for people to claim asylum safely, as many of those in the boats plan to do that once they land. That won’t tackle those who are trying to enter completely illegally but as 90% of those in the boats end up claiming asylum it goes a long way. The bilateral with Albania made a huge difference to the number of chancers claiming asylum from there - international cooperation turns out to work sometimes.

No, you’re quite right, although it was ECHR considerations that stopped Suella from going ahead. Although we are now unfortunately already a country that ignores international laws so I suspect Farage sees these as optional.

This is mixing things up a bit.

Albania is now a safe country and all people are sent back. Traffickers cannot sell the route anymore

If you want the same for all then it means overriding international convention and sending everyone back.

Tbf Labour’s ‘smash the gangs’ sounds the most removed from reality. It seems pure fantasy that the UK can clean up multi billion £ multinational trafficking networks. I’m surprised people are saying ok.

You mean send them back to war or persecution? Albanians were mainly economic migrants, that's why we could do a deal to send them back. You can't send someone who is being persecuted in Afghanistan for example, back. Around 60 percent are given refugee status. The rest will be sent back. The process takes years though

Trafficking only works if there is money to be made. That’s how you stop the gangs, cut of the revenue steams. You can start by more prosecution of companies over here who use illegal labour. Alongside, legal ways of applying, whilst being overseas. Some sort of decriminalisation once people are over, to stop them seeking illicit employment.

That’s the point I’m making to pp who mentioned Albania

You cannot do the same unless you’re willing to override convention

No, I’m not suggesting that we cooperate with all the countries people are coming from. You’ve misunderstood me, or maybe I was unclear. The Albania example worked because the vast majority of those claims were not going to be upheld as Albania is not an unsafe country - those that were tended to be from women and children and involved human trafficking. It was an obviously ridiculous situation. But more broadly speaking international cooperation, such as more collaboration with other EU nations over processing centres/routes etc is going to be more productive than pissing them off by sending people back. And indeed more security cooperation.

I share your scepticism of Smash The Gangs. But Labour are offering other things too.

I’m voting reform and a lot of ppl I know are. We’re not racists we just have a slightly different view on mass immigration’ and other issues.

Terrible people are often elected by those who can't be bothered to go and vote!

I'd love to hear them.

I see.

Trafficking doesn’t only rely on illegal employment as around 60% are given asylum and are not illegal. Even if you could stop the practise which is highly unlikely.

Applying o/s would result in numbers so high it would not be possible to accommodate

Immigration is not a bad thing but the current system isn’t working.
We see women and children being forced off the boats by single males. I’m sorry but I don’t want them in our country. I don’t want immigrants who have zero respect for females, I don’t care what country they come from. I don’t want immigrants who have an issue with someone’s religion or ethnicity.
We have been multicultural for so long and I think that when people worry about immigration I think they worry about integration rather than skin colour.
Maybe it’s just scare tactics but when labour and conservatives don’t seem to listen and people get branded racist for airing an opinion it’s not going to get any better.

Not even fuckwit Farage thinks they're going to win. But he is thinking ahead to 2029 and obviously believes that he might have a chance by then.

I am very fearful that they will get a handful of MPs, and particularly that Farage may win in Clacton. This would give them a legitimacy that they absolutely do not deserve.

Hoping against hope that the good people of Clacton and the other Reform targets will put aside their own party loyalties and vote tactically against Reform to stop them getting elected.

We really do co operate with France already. I was listening to info on how much they do with drones and security changing their border which is pretty nice of them actually given how it changes their landscape.

The EU have their own far right issues, French politicians are not going to offer processing for the U.K.

I do think we’re taking our eye off the ball with letting Labour ride smash the gangs without question. It has to be the most fantasy induced way to deal with the issue.

The Vote for Policies website has a majority for Lib Dems and Greens, Labour and the Torys a distant third and forth, Reform nowhere. Interesting isn't it when people actually look at the detail.

I know we already cooperate with France - I said so above. Although they offered more than the current government took, earlier on when it might have made a difference. But we’re on the right track now. We need more of this.

Indeed. But Labour supporters have always been like that, it comes as no surprise.

If you aren't racist, why would you vote for a party that is led by racists and that has lots of racist candidates?

If you see the racism and are happy to vote for Reform anyway, then that makes you complicit in the racism and guilty by association. If you don't see the racism, then that suggests that you are so racist yourself that you aren't capable of recognising it when when it's right in front of you because it is so normalised for you.

I don't see how a non-racist person would even contemplate voting for a party that is so tainted by racism.

Yes- it’s that classic ‘I’m not racist BUT’….mentality!

Does anybody seriously think Reform are going to win? All the reliable polls suggest a Labour landslide. It will be Labour, with a big majority – though probably not the supermajority everyone is talking about. Reform will definitely gain votes, but they'll gain them from Conservative voters, thus enlarging the Labour majority.

My advice is to focus on exit polls on the day. They are generally very accurate.

I think they will do better than most people will think as they get the hard of critical thinking/rebel/xenophobe vote and these people have given up on the Tories and don't understand it is more of the same, different name under Reform. My mum seems impressed with farage, as apparently a privately educated banker who made money shorting the UK economy is 'challenging the establishment'😂I mean, in your 70s its a great idea to vote for a party who wants to privatise healthcare. 🙄I think she might still vote for an independent as she usually does.

I think the biggest risk is Farage joining the Tories personally, although he will either challenge Labour on their promises or reduce Parliament to 'The Nigel Farage Show'.

I just hope Trump lures him over the pond again.

I'm starting to think Russell T Davies is nostradamus in disguise after watching Years and Years

Have you read the views of the kind of people Reform attracts? Some of them want all non-white people out, some want all immigrants regardless of colour out. I read one person argue that how long you and your family have lived in the UK should determine how many rights you have.

There's also an awful lot of scapegoating Muslims for all the problems the UK has. Conspiracy theories as well - the Great Replacement, Muslim immigration being a Jewish plot.

I have concerns about immigration - my biggest concern right now is how it's being used by the right to promote their beliefs.

Now I'm not saying all Reform voters are racist, but the ones shouting loudest absolutely are - right down to using racist slurs, just to remove all doubt. So if you vote for them you have to accept that you are aligning yourself with people with those views.

Also -

Their tax plans make no sense - raising the personal allowance to 20k?
They think the 'market' will sort out climate change that they don't believe exists.

Claiming asylum doesn't mean shit. They destroy their papers so can say they are from anywhere.

When you've got grown men saying they are school children, and being able to tell them it's bollocks via medical tests, testing them to see where they are from won't stand either.

All this about sending them back is ridiculous too. Just cut off the gravy train. Stop the benefits, stop the housing, stop the free health care and schooling.

Bring in ID cards and make accessing any service dependent on producing that card or ID number.

No payment in, no legality, no right to be here = no housing, healthcare, school, benefits.

The problem will soon stop itself.

The UK does not have infinite resources to provide for the world and its wife. We need to look after our own and the people legally entitled to it before continuing to allow the country to be raped the way it is.

And by our own I don't mean white people. I'm not white. I mean British born people, people given the right to stay that have paid in sufficiently or are paying in, and if they stop, and haven't paid in sufficiently, their entitlement stops after 3 months. Benefits should also only be available after 1 year of work.

We also need to stop any right to stay if a baby is born in the UK.

Healthcare should be available, if they wish to pay at point of use or have private cover, but no free access to what the rest of us pay for.

That will leave more resources for us to give adequately to our own elderly and vulnerable/disabled.

We should also push all the lazy bastards that don't want to work and have no reason not to, into the jobs we are continuously told we need these migrants for.

If you try and move to an EU country, you've next to no chance, and if you want to move for economic reasons, you have to PROOVE the job can't be recruited for by nationals.

Everything I've stated above is in place in EU countries so it's not racist, it's what we would get if we moved to their country, and if it works for them, it can work in the UK.