To think that it is crazy to be ending lockdown now, and that this will definitely lead to a disastrous second wave?

[Staysafer]

Given that the UK currently has 8,000 new cases of coronavirus a day and numbers now appear to be rising, and given that the 5 tests the Government insisted would need to be met have not been met, AIBU for worrying that ending lockdown now will inevitably lead to a hugely dangerous second wave?

Four members of SAGE, including Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust, are now openly disagreeing with the government decision to ease lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392

I'd like people to vote on this because I think that it is still possible to avoid a second wave. But that requires action to be taken now, and also for everyone to be aware of their continuing need to socially distance and take precautions as before.

So YABU = you think ending lockdown will not lead to a second wave, it will all be fine.
YANBU = you think ending lockdown now will lead to a second wave.

NB This is one IABU where I really, really, really hope IABU. Unfortunately I don't think I am. But time will tell.

The government have lost control. Police fighting a losing battle to even try and keep people safe now. Been a disaster from start to finish.

It's like a carnival every day.

I'm concerned that as we are on the verge of easing lockdown in the UK, yesterday the UK recorded more COVID deaths than:

Spain
Italy
Germany
France
Turkey
Belgium
Portugal
Ireland
Poland
Romania
Hungary

Not more deaths than each of them....the UK recorded more deaths than all these countries COMBINED.

To me, this does not sound like a great time to be easing the measures we have in place to keep us all safe. Not while the numbers of new cases are still so high.

Please respond in the comments, too, as it will be interesting to see why some think there is no risk, or conversely why some think there is a risk.

I don't really feel that the UK, England specifically, is out of the first wave yet tbh.

And yes I think that there will be an increase in cases, and consequently, an increase in deaths is likely.

There's no political will for TTI (clearly, or it would be in place by now), the govt are changing the wording on their own '5 tests' to suit their own agenda, and many people are now being forced back to their workplace.

Schools opening to some year groups, some competitive sport starting on Monday and non-essential shops due to open in 2 weeks.

It's very disheartening to be living in England at the moment.

People have just given up on lockdown. That's the reason.

Second wave is inevitable. The government have really fucked up. It is too soon. But the economy is fucked as well. There's no answer except get new leadership and change course. Which won't happen.

I agree op

8000 cases is not a lot and the lifting of restrictions is absolutely tiny. We still cannot do any of the main things that spread the virus - that is seeing friends and family indoors, mass events and celebrations. Office workers are working from home. The buses and tubes are empty.

I have absolutely no idea why you are panicking about a tiny relaxation which simplify codifies what people are doing anyway.

Other countries - France, Italy, Germany, Spain - which have relaxed lockdowns more have not seen an explosion in cases. Even Sweden which has no lockdown has never had exponential growth despite all children being in school as normal until age 16. Its infections are trending downwards for gods sake.

So why on earth do you think 6 people staying 2m away outdoors is suddenly going to cause an explosion??!!!! It beggars belief

I'm in Scotland. England looks like it's lost the plot completely. I feel for you all.

Thanks, would be good to hear from some of the 52% currently who think there is no risk of a second wave.

It would be good to hear how they think the infection can be prevented from rising exponentially again without lockdown.

It's worrying me.

I don't necessarily think that the easing of restrictions in themselves are wrong if done in a controlled way.

It's the way people are behaving, a lot of people just aren't following social distancing.

I think the longer we stay in lock down, there are going to be more late cancer/stroke/heart attack admissions to hospital, more cases of domestic violence and mental health issues. I suppose its a balancing act.

England locked down far too late so there is still lots of circulating virus. You really need to go early and hard for lockdown to work. Yes , there will be a second wave.It is terribly terribly sad. I am very very lucky and very grateful to be in New Zealand.

MadameMarie - did you vote YABU then, because you think that lockdown is going to end anyway, or YANBU, because you think this will lead to a second wave?

I expect a second wave, and think that is preferable to never ending restrictions.

I think we could have a avoided a second wave without"never ending restrictions" , with just a few more weeks of restrictions whilst the test and trace system got its self sorted

Or perhaps just a few more weeks is "forever" in some people's eyes ?

So why on earth do you think 6 people staying 2m away outdoors is suddenly going to cause an explosion??!!!! It beggars belief

Because that's not what a lot of people were doing before judging by the pictures of the beaches. And it will only get worse.

It’s really not the cases you need to look at, because testing has evolved to community and key worker testing. Many people are now getting tested who would not have been tested before. Because we used to only test those who were admitted to hospital.

So What you need to look at is hospital admissions. The only people who used to be tested Remember , and that’s now dropping drastically and has been for some time.

So no, there is no concern. If hospital admissions start rising drastically then That would be concerning.

I don't think that there will be a second wave. I believe that a high % of the public is immune already as it was here months before they admitted it. I think that some people are enjoying lockdown so much that they are scaremongering about a second wave to try and prolong lockdown. Just my opinion so no I don't have sources.

@staysafer YANBU but the lockdown ended weeks ago anyway really once Boris decided to let people travel anywhere and the VE day street parties. It was too soon then.

Then the Cummings saga gave the masses the excuses to do what the hell they like and the police lost the authority to try and police the streets.

You really need to go early and hard for lockdown to work

It did work. We locked down to ensure the nhs wasn’t breached. How are people still so confused on this.

We never locked down to eradicate it, no country did.

Quite a bit of the evidence shows the risk of meeting up outside is fairly minimal. That’s what I see people doing, around here people aren’t going into each other’s houses or into work or onto transport.

Ireland has around 500 new confirmed cases a week. Scaled up(multiply by 13) to get like for like on the UK population would be 6500 per week.

So from that lens - UK having 8000 per day or 56,000 per week. So incidence of new infections is about 9 times higher in the UK than Ireland.

In Ireland, stricter restrictions than UK (schools closed completely till sept). Lots of debate here that lockdown release is too slow.

I think easing will cause a second wave but I agree with the easing.

We have to move forward, those who are most vulnerable should continue to shield, those who are otherwise fit and healthy can meet in groups of up to 6 whilst staying 2m away from each other.

Those that are currently flouting the rules will continue to do so whether the government relaxes restrictions or not.

A second wave is not guaranteed. If it comes as long as the nhs can cope then that’s the aim. As far as I’m concerned coming out of lockdown is the right thing to do. No one can really compare with other countries until it’s all over. And New Zealand is not a good comparison! Half London population in a country the size of the U.K.