To think that it is crazy to be ending lockdown now, and that this will definitely lead to a disastrous second wave?

[Staysafer]

Given that the UK currently has 8,000 new cases of coronavirus a day and numbers now appear to be rising, and given that the 5 tests the Government insisted would need to be met have not been met, AIBU for worrying that ending lockdown now will inevitably lead to a hugely dangerous second wave?

Four members of SAGE, including Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust, are now openly disagreeing with the government decision to ease lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392

I'd like people to vote on this because I think that it is still possible to avoid a second wave. But that requires action to be taken now, and also for everyone to be aware of their continuing need to socially distance and take precautions as before.

So YABU = you think ending lockdown will not lead to a second wave, it will all be fine.
YANBU = you think ending lockdown now will lead to a second wave.

NB This is one IABU where I really, really, really hope IABU. Unfortunately I don't think I am. But time will tell.

[CodenameVillanelle]

We never had the kind of lockdown that was going to keep deaths low. Countries that properly locked down have utterly fucked economies, and rightly or wrongly the U.K. was never going to do that. What we need to hope for is that cases and deaths remain steady and continue to fall slowly.

I believe, from my inexpert understanding, that transmission outdoors is relatively rare. As long as people don't start gathering in people's homes, and indoor social events don't start up too soon, I believe this is achievable. Schools are scaling up what they have been doing throughout; keeping the kids in small bubbles, and that hasn't led to lots of infection so I don't believe that introducing more bubbles will do either.
Thankfully we have the summer so that people can and will keep socialising outdoors. I don't know if it will be enough time between now and when the weather gets cold for effective treatment/vaccination/track and trace to actually work, but I hope there will be some steps in that direction to prevent another peak.

[Purplequalitystreet]

@Staysafer when and how do you think lockdown should be eased? (genuine question- not being goady!)

I hover somewhere between the two schools of thought. I think it seems like a lot being lifted at once so it seems inevitable that R will increase. However I don't think that groups of 6 outside will make a massive difference, as long as people follow the rules.

I'd rather poke myself with a rusty fork than go clothes shopping on 15th June though. And I say that as someone whose clothes have all mysteriously shrunk over the last 2 months!

[Greysparkles]

Where are you getting 8000 per day from??

[Staysafer]

@Eyewhisker

The changes coming in soon are far more than just having 6 friends in your garden.

They have already included encouraging people back to work and allowing people unlimited time out of doors.

From Monday, they will also include:

Schools partially opening
Nurseries opening
Childminders and nannies starting work again
Outdoor markets and car showrooms reopening

Shops reopening on 15 June

Pubs, restaurants, hairdressers, hotels, cinemas and places of worship to open from 4 July

By July, if this goes ahead, there will be very little that is still locked down.

[Fluffyglitterystuff]

Playdonut I am not enjoying lockdown. I'm absolutely sick of it. I'm sick of queuing for the shops, I need my hair done, I want to send my kids to my mums for an hour, I want them back at school, I want their sports to resume.

I am getting a bit worried because I'm seeing people outside not socially distancing. I really hope that it doesn't make a difference to things.

I wanted lockdown to be lifted but in a controlled and careful way but I'm worried that too many people have simply given up being careful.

[LellyMcKelly]

The government has completely lost control. We’re not even out of the first wave yet. England is like the kid who doesn’t really understand what’s going on and is just copying what the bigger kids are doing.

[SunbathingDragon]

The ICUs might be having decreasing covid cases, and few new cases, but they are getting higher numbers of things like overdosed due to people unable to cope with the lockdown.

If you want to avoid coronavirus, then yes we need to stay locked down. However, the economy cannot cope with that and nor can some people’s MH. The best thing is to relax restrictions and for all of those who can stay home to do so. That minimises contact and risk. The problem is that you get many who flout the rules regardless.

[Staysafer]

@Greysparkles

While the latest figures show the UK recorded another 2,445 confirmed cases, analysis by the Office for National Statistics suggests there are 8,000 new infections a day in England alone.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52859146

[GalesThisMorning]

We're still locked down in Wales, more or less. We can see one other household outdoors from Monday and travel 5 miles from home. This seems sensible and more like what a gradual easing looks like.

England looks nuts. I can't believe people want to go to John Lewis that badly. Seriously a second wave will be pretty bad for the economy too, no?

The schools opening is going to change numbers drastically I should think. Hope I'm wrong

[Whoopsmahoot]

Second wave on its way. Only slight positive is that so many were outside together in the fresh air rather than inside so viral exposure will be less. People are fed up and government have been dithering from the beginning. Now they want to reduce the distancing from 2m to possibly 1. I didn’t realise people have stoped sneezing/coughing so far. 🙄 It’s an absolute scandal that it’s taken months to get track and trace going which will b next to useless in parks and beaches and public transport. I despair.

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

There's no rational justification for ending lockdown if you look at the situation from the perspective of the R number. No reason to think things can hold with lockdown eased and no reason to think test and trace will be effective. Everything the government has done seems to be a gesture, with the important bits missing (like timing and equipment) that would have made it work. At the same time, I'm not sure we have the resources to lock down harder and for longer. I don't feel equipped to say that when I'm (a) unable to get out of lockdown anyway due to personal circumstances and (b) in an extremely fortunate position. Maybe there are people who are really so desperate that it does matter more than the second wave which seems so likely. I don't have the data to know which will cause more suffering but either way it's extremely grim and I probably wouldn't be easing lockdown. I'm just glad I don't have to take that responsibility on but it would be nice if we did have a grown up in charge

[Staysafer]

@Purplequalitystreet

I agree with you about the 6 people outside thing.

I am really nervous about restarting schools again, though (and nurseries, childminders etc.) as small children do not know how to socially distance and will just be miserable if they try.

I'm suspicious that Eton etc aren't going back to school till September, yet they want all of our children back at school for a month before the summer holidays. If it was really important for our children's education, I'm sure the public schools would be doing it too!

I also think that once you open all shops it will be almost back like it was.

I think they should have waited until numbers were really low and till track and trace was fully operational, which it clearly is not, yet, before lifting lockdown.

[PersonaNonGarter]

A second wave is preferable to endless lockdown.

A second wave is possible but not certain.

It was too much for young people to bear for older people. They’d done enough.

[GarlicSoup]

@Eyewhisker the tubes are absolutely rammed full.

[DanceMonkey19]

The government is going for herd immunity. There will be a second wave, but with the truly vulnerable still shielding it shouldn't have too big an impact (in theory). Hospital admissions due to covid have massively increased in the West Midlands,and that's not the only region

[Eyewhisker]

The WHO recommends 1m not 2m.

It is really worth reading some of the scientific papers on how the virus spreads. This is a really interesting study of the first infected people in Germany. They tested all the workers at the office, and all their households, and friends, so several hundred people. The only infected people were those who had close contact, usually in an enclosed space with an infected person. And most of these high-risk contacts were not infected. No low-risk contacts were found to be infected. Even if you lived with an infected person, the chance of infection was less than 50%.

The fact that no low-risk contacts were infected suggest that the risk from walking past someone - even at shock, horror, less than 2m is absolutely minimal. Having a prolonged conversation indoors - totally different - but even there the percentage of high-risk contacts who were infected was really really low.

So yes, having a shop open with social distancing sounds perfectly safe to me.

www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30314-5/fulltext

[Eyewhisker]

I have been on the tube and was the only person in the entire carriage. Tube travel is only 5% of normal levels - hardly rammed full!!

[EasterIssland]

Where are this 8000 new cases a day coming from? Today it was 1.5k I believe.


I’m Spanish and only 4 deaths were accounted yesterday. However , where I’m from were 3. So I don’t believe that number. Also cuz their numbers have been going up and down (the other day they substracted 2k deaths )


A second wave will come. We(nhs) will need to manage it and if so corresponding measurements will be taken but until then peopke should be able to go back to their jobs and Life or are we planning to be in lockdown state for 2 years ? The economic and mentak health related problems Will be worse than the pandemic If we do that.

[MrsTravers]

I presume the reason that Eton isn't going back is that it's a secondary school. And a boarding school.

Our local non-selective secondary (I live in a grammar school area) isn't going back either, most secondaries won't.

[HugeAckmansWife]

Eton is a boarding school. It could not realistically operate with SD. It's not an indication of what every other school should be doing. I think if we get people back to work, with SD in place, then it will reduce the large gatherings in parks and beaches and big family gathering bbqs and people ca. Focus their minds on learning to live 'normally' with the virus rather than this sort of 'holiday' that any furloughed people and teenagers are experiencing.

[Staysafer]

@SunbathingDragon

Actually, the ICUs aren't having decreasing covid cases - in fact it's the opposite. Case numbers have just started rising again.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-hospital-admissions-testing-public-health-england-a9540101.html

New data has shown the number of coronavirus patients being admitted to hospital and intensive care units across the country has risen as lockdown rules are set to be eased further on Monday.

The Public Health England (PHE) data, published on Friday, covers 134 NHS trusts across the country and shows the daily rate of new patients admitted to hospital and critical care with Covid-19 has risen compared to recent weeks, with London experiencing a sharp spike in new admissions in the past week. The south east region also saw an increase.

[B0bbin]

Everyone I speak to thinks we're still in trouble and not ready to end lockdown for a while. As desperate as I am gor it to end, we're definitely not there yet.

[EasterIssland]

Btw opening schools in Denmark hasn’t made situation worse so hope it goes the same way here
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2341N7

[Staysafer]

@EasterIssland - I posted this on the previous page. The 8,000 cases a day comes from the ONS.

It is very widely reported.

If you have evidence for your much lower figure, please post it here.

[highmarkingsnowbile]

Everyone said the second wave was going to be after VE day. Well, that was over 3 weeks ago.