To think that it is crazy to be ending lockdown now, and that this will definitely lead to a disastrous second wave?

[Staysafer]

Given that the UK currently has 8,000 new cases of coronavirus a day and numbers now appear to be rising, and given that the 5 tests the Government insisted would need to be met have not been met, AIBU for worrying that ending lockdown now will inevitably lead to a hugely dangerous second wave?

Four members of SAGE, including Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust, are now openly disagreeing with the government decision to ease lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392

I'd like people to vote on this because I think that it is still possible to avoid a second wave. But that requires action to be taken now, and also for everyone to be aware of their continuing need to socially distance and take precautions as before.

So YABU = you think ending lockdown will not lead to a second wave, it will all be fine.
YANBU = you think ending lockdown now will lead to a second wave.

NB This is one IABU where I really, really, really hope IABU. Unfortunately I don't think I am. But time will tell.

[EasterIssland]

2.5k sorry. (Not sure why worldupdate says 1.5)
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Staysafer]

@PersonaNonGarter

Why do you think the only option was 'endless' lockdown?

Surely, logically as we entered lockdown a couple of weeks after other countries, we should end it a couple of weeks after them too?

As it is, Spain officially had 2 new cases yesterday; the UK had 324.

Yet the UK is opening all its schools on 1 June.

Spain is not opening theirs until September!

It does look like we are rushing ahead and I can't see a medical reason for this.

[TimeFlysWhenYoureHavingRum]

They've stopped claiming to be "following the science" and SAGE have distanced themselves from the decision making process.

It's a massive gamble with the central aim being to deflect attention both from Dominic Cummings and the (so far) as good as non existent test and trace system (now being run by a former director of Cheltenham Racecourse of all people).

It may turn out that Johnson and Hancock know better than the world's experts. I hope so. But if more people die because of this strategy the buck must finally stop with them and they must be held properly accountable.

[wheresmymojo]

I don't think that there will be a second wave. I believe that a high % of the public is immune already as it was here months before they admitted it. I t

Unfortunately not the case - studies have shown 17% in London and an average of 5% elsewhere.

[IncrediblySadToo]

We are not easing cautiously - we are going at it like a horse out of the gate

They're moving the criteria to meet the situation

They want popularity not safety

Scientists say NO
Bozo says 'let's make everyone like MEEEE'

[Staysafer]

@highmarkingsnowbile

I think that's what we are seeing in the recent rises again in new cases.

We won't see big spikes in death rates yet as there is always a big gap before these are reported.

This graph shows the rise in new cases. Quite easily visible.

twitter.com/juniordrblog/status/1266791541126955009

[MarcelineMissouri]

@Staysafer comparing state schools to a schools like Eton is totally pointless.

1. They break up much earlier for summer holidays
   
2. They’re a boarding school - much much harder to manage sufficient levels of social distancing
   
3. They have a large number of international students who pay lots of money and still wouldn’t be able to attend.
   

There is no conspiracy in them remaining closed longer.

[Pinkchocolate]

I think the point of releasing lockdown is so that more of us catch it and we get herd immunity. I’m in London and everyone near me stuck to it rigidly for the first 7 weeks and the last week or so have met up with social distancing. I personally think we started lockdown too soon and it wasn’t enforced enough.

[EasterIssland]

Spain didn’t have 2 new cases yesterday and again I’d take their numbers carefully. I know several cases where I’ve rolled my eyes. I know Madrid government is hiding numbers to be able to move to the next phase and Catalonia has got several “unknown” deaths related with covid that aren’t accounting as it.

Btw pubs / restaurants / hairdressers have been opened for a month nearly in Spain and also peopke can meet indoors for up to 10 people since 2-3 weeks.
Their lockdown was tougher but their exit plan is lighter than uks in my opinion. Where I’m from some schools have opened this week

[Playdonut]

@wheresmymojo

I don't think that there will be a second wave. I believe that a high % of the public is immune already as it was here months before they admitted it. I t

Unfortunately not the case - studies have shown 17% in London and an average of 5% elsewhere.

Theyve done a million studies and they all say different things. Talk to londoners and they all think they have had it.

[Pinkchocolate]

I think we started too late not too soon.

[Staysafer]

Would be interesting to hear more from the many people here who think that reducing lockdown will not lead to a second wave.

I see lots of posters claiming this on other threads - don't be shy and post your reasons here!

[wheresmymojo]

Theyve done a million studies and they all say different things. Talk to londoners and they all think they have had it.

Go and look at the antibody testing threads - most people who thought they've had it actually haven't and probably had the flu.

Studies are a hell of a lot more accurate than chatting to a few random Londoners

[JudyCoolibar]

YANBU. They're doing this primarily to take the heat off Johnson and Cummings. It is utterly disgraceful

[Playdonut]

@wheresmymojo

Theyve done a million studies and they all say different things. Talk to londoners and they all think they have had it.

Go and look at the antibody testing threads - most people who thought they've had it actually haven't and probably had the flu.

Studies are a hell of a lot more accurate than chatting to a few random Londoners

In the old normal I would have agreed with you. Experts have shown very clearly that they dont believe their studies so why should I? It was here in london from november/December time imo.

[mamakoukla]

Here in Canada each province is mapping out its own pathway. Quebec, which had the largest number of cases, reopened schools this week although not in Montreal where numbers remain higher than desired. 19 children, 22 staff infected. Maybe from school attendance? But that is probably 41 households now in isolation. Attendance was not compulsory. It’s a tough balance and I think we all need to take responsibility for our own choices and decisions. Staying informed and discussions like this thread are so useful to help widen the conversation of what should we each be doing in order to stay as safe and healthy as possible.

[EasterIssland]

This was in the news the other day

“ Huge coronavirus breakthrough as WHO claims second wave ‘being increasingly ruled out’”

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/1287242/coronavirus-second-wave-latest-world-health-organization-breakthrough-who-lockdown-UK/amp

[bumblenbean]

A second wave is a definite possibility but to be honest I think easing of lockdown is necessary by this point. People are already starting to flout ‘the rules’ and presumably the govt is hoping allowing more freedom will make the situation more bearable and therefore (hopefully) people more compliant.

Of course it could go the other way and people just throw all precautions out the window, but the only meeting 1 other person outside concession wasn’t going to keep people satisfied for long.

Ultimately we do need to get things going again and just have to hope that the majority of people are being sensible. Yes there are crowds descending on beaches etc but most people I know/ talk to in real life are largely sticking to the rules.

As others have said though, the aim was never to completely eradicate it / stop everyone catching it. Some people will catch it. Hopefully a good proportion won’t.

[Rosehip10]

@Whoopsmahoot If 2m is so important, why does the World Health Organisation only recommend 1m?

[Feellikedancingyeah]

There will be a big spike in cases in U.S.A for sure

[Cherrygirl3]

The ease of restrictions are not compulsory as I understand it? Nobody is saying the rules have eased so we MUST all now go to the newly opening shops, have up to 6 people in our gardens/parks. Those who are not comfortable with going out STAY INDOORS ffs. Let those who are going mad indoors/very nearly bankrupt as fell through the furlough/self employed help net get out of their spiral of mental health deterioration due to the terror of losing their housing/solvency whilst living on the pitiful UC monthly amount!

[footsanitiser]

I feel like the Gov are just changing the original criteria because they know that a) they can't afford to keep lockdown and furlough going
b)after the DC embarrassment lots of people will start bending/ignoring the rules anyway.
First of all they said nothing would change until the 5 pillars were met...then it seemed to be "we've met 3/5 but its taking longer than we hoped so lets carry on and hope for the best...."
Then in the nonsense "go to work but don't but stay alert" message they said they would move on to each phase only if it was right/the r remained low etc. Now I feel like they're going to plough on regardless and probably not even look at the r number again! They've given out the dates a month in advance! We saw in March that A LOT can change in a month.
I hoped we would have a plan like the irish gov but this does feel like a rush.

[Beverley71]

It’s not the easing of the lockdown that’s going to cause a second wave it’s the idiots that just do what they like. Earlier today someone on my FB feed said they had gone to see a friend and were having to make their own cuppa.

[Dipi79]

I, for one, am bloody pleased restrictions have been eased, as I was able to see my twin toddlers for the first time in 10 weeks on Thursday.
If you're in the vulnerable category and/or are worried, stay at home. Let the rest of us try and piece our lives back together. ✌️

[pontypridd]

Eyewhisker - what sounds like a tiny relaxation to you - well, it's being interpreted differently by a very large number of people round here.

They've taken it as the end of lockdown and are indeed celebrating in large groups. No social distancing. Kissing, hugging. Hundreds of people were sat together in a field by a river waiting to swim and sunbathing. There was no distance between these people.

Until this week people were still following the rules. This has been a sudden change for us and it feels scary.