To think that it is crazy to be ending lockdown now, and that this will definitely lead to a disastrous second wave?

[Staysafer]

Given that the UK currently has 8,000 new cases of coronavirus a day and numbers now appear to be rising, and given that the 5 tests the Government insisted would need to be met have not been met, AIBU for worrying that ending lockdown now will inevitably lead to a hugely dangerous second wave?

Four members of SAGE, including Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust, are now openly disagreeing with the government decision to ease lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392

I'd like people to vote on this because I think that it is still possible to avoid a second wave. But that requires action to be taken now, and also for everyone to be aware of their continuing need to socially distance and take precautions as before.

So YABU = you think ending lockdown will not lead to a second wave, it will all be fine.
YANBU = you think ending lockdown now will lead to a second wave.

NB This is one IABU where I really, really, really hope IABU. Unfortunately I don't think I am. But time will tell.

[Leflic]

PowerslidePanda It makes sense, Even a second wave will mean more people get it and recover. The more with immunity before winter the better. We will have flu killing people then too.

Plus it’s easier to socially distance and easier to tell who might have it and therefore isolate, in the summer.

[MissEliza]

@BogRollBOGOF a very sensible post. As the mother of dcs ages between 20 and 11, I'm concerned that lots of young people having no work or school to go to is actually more risky than having them in workplaces or educational settings where social distancing measures are in place.

[PowerslidePanda]

PowerslidePanda It makes sense, Even a second wave will mean more people get it and recover. The more with immunity before winter the better. We will have flu killing people then too.

Wow. OK, let's consider the maths behind that...

We currently have 7% immunity in the population, so if we had the same wave again now, there would be 2,380 fewer deaths. But in getting to this point, 34,000 people have died. Or to put it another way, for every future life saved through immunity, 14 people have to die in the mean time. 14 deaths in a summer wave to save just 1 life in a winter wave. Doesn't make any sense!

[stayingaliveisawayoflife]

Some people are acting as if we are already out of the lock down. This is the road leading to the Roehampton gate of Richmond park. They are parking all the way back to the Bank of England tennis club. Not only are they blocking the cycle lane but they are making the whole pavement now dangerous. This is in 'posh' Richmond.

Oh and the police do know and are heading out with Richmond traffic officers so there will be quite a few tickets!

[Staysafer]

@stayingaliveisawayoflife

Don't actually see what's wrong with that - they're not breaking lockdown.

Obviously, annoying for the people who live on that street, but Richmond Park is huuuuge. It's not as though the inhabitants of those cars are going to completely fill it! There is plenty of room for every single person in every one of those cars to stand 2m apart from every other person once they are in the park.

People sitting in separate cars can't infect anyone else and driving to the park is therefore allowed currently.

I do find this tendency of the British to tut over things that aren't actually a problem at all, while missing the big picture things that actually ARE a problem, like lack of PPE for doctors and nurses and in care homes, and lack of a working testing and tracing programme, very strange.

[Aridane]

We never locked down to eradicate it, no country did.
We didn’t but the latter part is incorrect. NZ did.

And North Korea

[Aridane]

We don't know much about the virus. The likelihood is that the vast majority of us have probably had vivid.

Except that’s NOT the experience of countries that have done mass testing (or even our government’s limited antibody testing)

[stayingaliveisawayoflife]

They are blocking the road all the way to the park. It is a busy road and all the side streets were blocked with traffic. It may not break lock down but it is impacting on local people. The toilets are locked which also means trees and bushes are being used and the bins aren't just full of dog poo!

If people are going to travel to places of natural beauty then they need to ensure they are not going to negatively impact the people who live there and the very natural beauty that is there.

Oh and they are breaking parking rules as it is illegal to park on the pavement in London unless in a designated parking area.

[Staysafer]

That may be true but not sure what this has to do with easing lockdown?

[Kokeshi123]

We never locked down to eradicate it, no country did.

China, Vietnam, some of the ex Soviet bloc countries....

[Aridane]

New Zealand

[Aridane]

North Korea

[Nat6999]

I fully expect there to be a second wave, probably during the 6 weeks holiday & lockdown again so that schools won't go back on time in September. Schools in Sheffield haven't opened today as the council have refused until they can see how track & test is going, plus how the numbers look in 2 weeks time. We should have locked down earlier & stricter, like spain & other countries did & then we wouldn't have been having the death rates we have now.

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

arida South Korea!!! You do not want to be mixing them up.

[nexus63]

i live in glasgow and the last few days has been awful, people out all over the place large groups of teenagers, people driving for miles to places like loch lomond (no toilets or shops - so going to toilet at the beach and surrounding areas...it's disgusting that people behave like that. i hope we do not have a second wave, but i fear that we will.

[ssd]

I hope NS does make new laws on this, people are being so fucking stupid, if they are too thick to follow the guidelines they should be fined.

[SudokuBook]

It would be good to hear how they think the infection can be prevented from rising exponentially again without lockdown.


And how long do we need to put up with lockdown for? The virus is going nowhere. But we can’t lockdown indefinitely regardless. At some point we have to open up and take what comes.

I haven’t voted as I have no idea if there will be a second peak/ I think the government want there to be though to get us closer to their “herd immunity” threshold

[Rhodri]

So they end lockdown. The numpties go out. The numpties die. I don’t see why I should care about this? I’m staying at home.

[Chocolatefixeseverything]

I personally think they, as in the powers that be, are engineering a second wave to happen and hopefully diminish before we have the annual winter flu pressures and all that brings to the NHS. Our hospitals would almost certainly be overwhelmed if the second wave came oct/Nov time and I would assume there would be less of the population vaccinated against winter flu given the difficulties accessing the GP services en masse

[Lancrelady80]

Because the numpties go shopping and handle things as they browse which you later unwittingly pick up. Or they deliver your post. Or take their kids to school where your children are/partner works, or fill up with fuel at the pump you subsequently use ...

Unless you are fully shielding, totally and completely mixing with noone except others in your household doing the same, sanitizing or quarantine post or grocery deliveries, the issue is transmission.

Example - numpty has a lovely day out at the seaside with their family, queues up for fish and chips like sardines with all the other day trippers, uses the pay and display machine for ticket etc. Numpty picks up disease but is asymptomatic. Schools reopen, numpty sends kids in. Kid develops symptoms some time later, quarantined in school and sent home. In the meantime, that's now potentially 14 other children plus school staff infected. One of those children's parents is your carer / postman / the volunteer who brings you groceries. Another parent is a local GP / works in a hospital/ works in a supermarket. All now potentially infected and thereby potentially passing onto others who have not been numpties.

We need to ease lockdown but it should be when the 5 steps have been met (not "being met" which is not the same at all) and when the level is down from 4 to 3 (conveniently they are not referring to that anymore!) It should be a little easing, then a fortnight to see what effect there has been before easing up any more.

[Lancrelady80]

@Chocolatefixeseverything

I personally think they, as in the powers that be, are engineering a second wave to happen and hopefully diminish before we have the annual winter flu pressures and all that brings to the NHS. Our hospitals would almost certainly be overwhelmed if the second wave came oct/Nov time and I would assume there would be less of the population vaccinated against winter flu given the difficulties accessing the GP services en masse

Completely agree.

It's big picture policy where they have lost sight of the fact that these are people, not just numbers.

The logic is sound. But not remotely ethical.

[attackedbycritters]

Any second wave that doesn't overwhelm the NHS makes the country ready for nothing but a third wave as the numbers infected would still be rather low

[Kazzyhoward]

Any second wave that doesn't overwhelm the NHS makes the country ready for nothing but a third wave as the numbers infected would still be rather low

But you'd need another lock down to bring the second wave under control because of exponential growth. That would be a disaster.