To think that it is crazy to be ending lockdown now, and that this will definitely lead to a disastrous second wave?

[Staysafer]

Given that the UK currently has 8,000 new cases of coronavirus a day and numbers now appear to be rising, and given that the 5 tests the Government insisted would need to be met have not been met, AIBU for worrying that ending lockdown now will inevitably lead to a hugely dangerous second wave?

Four members of SAGE, including Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust, are now openly disagreeing with the government decision to ease lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392

I'd like people to vote on this because I think that it is still possible to avoid a second wave. But that requires action to be taken now, and also for everyone to be aware of their continuing need to socially distance and take precautions as before.

So YABU = you think ending lockdown will not lead to a second wave, it will all be fine.
YANBU = you think ending lockdown now will lead to a second wave.

NB This is one IABU where I really, really, really hope IABU. Unfortunately I don't think I am. But time will tell.

[Mummiepig]

I thought it was 2k a day from worldometers?
Sorry too much wine 🤣

[YouTheCat]

We haven't really come out of the first wave yet.

I'm still going with staying at home as much as possible and when I have to go back to work I will be walking in (I don't drive) and taking all possible precautions to keep myself and others safe.

[Pixxie7]

All though the official changes may be relatively small in reality they have massive potential to cause a second wave. People are not sticking to the rules mainly because it’s almost impossible in some cases ie public transport. Additionally it’s not clear in many cases. People are confused, fed up and angry.

[goingtotown]

It’s like a bank holiday here. Take away drinks, ice cream van, picnics, ball games in the park, cars parked along the road bumper to bumper, no social distancing.
BIL just rang to see if we wanted to meet up at the coast tomorrow a 40 mile drive, that would be 5 adults,5 kids.DH is thinking about it.

[0v9c99f9g9d939d9f9g9h8h]

dip Can I ask why you couldn't see them before?

[chopc]

You know just because government has eased lockdown, it doesn't mean that you have to? You can still continue to stay at home under the same circumstances as before

[Staysafer]

I agree.

I think a combination of people not being clear what the rules are, not caring what the rules are now as they are about to change, and people feeling that the elite who make the rules like Dominic Cummings don't bother to stick to them so why should they, means that in practice a lot of people are now just doing whatever they want.

Not everyone, certainly. But too many.

[user1496146479]

Ireland does not have 500 confirmed cases weekly at the moment

[Cornishclio]

I think we will probably get a second wave if people continue to act as they are now which is basically as if life were back to normal. Lots of cars on the road and crowds of people at parks and beaches. However it is still summer and viruses travel less then as we spend more time outside. The easing of restrictions is to help the economy not because they think we are safe and no chance of a second peak.

However many people will continue to shield and be careful and if the track and trace identifies regional clusters then we may get through this without a second peak.We all take risks every day and this is one we all have to consider. If you don't feel safe then continue to shield but we need a way out as people are dying of other conditions while we are focussing all our attention on Covid.

You cannot take stats alone as a reliable way of measuring the virus infection rate as each country is monitoring differently. Also don't forget the hospitals will be busier as people are going out more.

[littlebillie]

I think we due to a second wave whether we lockdown or not. People are not coping with being at home. People need to go out and be careful. Being outside is okay but with distance. We need to try out a new way of living.

There are other dangers appearing because of lockdown

[Norabird]

Office workers are working from home. The buses and tubes are empty.

Not everyone can work from home, a lot of people will be working soon in places with a degree of risk.

We never locked down to eradicate it, no country did.

New Zealand? If they don't want to get rid of it then why aim to keep R below 1? Although that seems to have gone out the window now. So much for "following the science"

Everyone said the second wave was going to be after VE day. Well, that was over 3 weeks ago.

Timing is about right for the current uptick in admissions.

Those who are not comfortable with going out STAY INDOORS ffs.

Which would be fine if it were possible to stay in a hermetically sealed bubble. Back in reality, the more the virus is circulating the more at risk we all are. And some of us don't have a choice. It will be: go back to work or lose your job.

This kind of thing www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-52864454 is what is happening at current levels of restrictions. What's it going to be like when things have eased even more?

I don't know if there will be a second wave or if we're going to keep going at the current level of infections. It certainly won't be going away any time soon.

[Aridane]

Even Sweden which has no lockdown has never had exponential growth despite all children being in school as normal until age 16. Its infections are trending downwards for gods sake.

Do you not read the news? or the statistics?

[pontypridd]

We're staying in as much as we can and when we go out we're keeping a good distance. Not meeting friends etc yet.

So I'm not worried for us.

It's more the chaos this country is about to go back into. Work is fine for us. So far we're fine. I'm a bit worried that our kids will never get to go back to school if this madness continues.

There just feels to be no order or control anymore. Even Boris saying that we should all trust our instincts. That's it. It's a free for all.

[Cam77]

(At the time of leadership contest, a convo between Nick Cohen and Tory MP )
'Talked to a Tory MP last night who was backing Johnson
"Do you think he'd be any good as PM"
"No"
"What on earth will he do about Brexit"?
"No one knows"
"Why do you want him, then?"
"He's the best hope we've got"
"By 'we" you don't mean Britain do you?"
"No the party, of course"'

[Playdonut]

But surely the Dorset "thing" is a consequence of lockdown? Take away people's reasons for living and they wont be afraid of death anymore? The bunched together people had to bunch together because they wanted the ambulance to land safely.

[Mintjulia]

Having seen the pictures from Dirdle Door today, I think some people are so unbelievably stupid that nothing short of troops on the streets would make people remain in lockdown.

I also think 50% of people will ignore requests from the T&T service to self isolate, so we have every chance of a second wave.

It’s depressing.

[pontypridd]

The pictures of Durdle Door don't look as bad as the real events we saw round us today. Durdle Door people at least had a reason (to let the helicopter land) to huddle together.

Yes there were too many of them on the beach in the first place.

But here, we had too many people and many of them were huddled together out of choice.

It's way worse than before lockdown and the second wave will be enormous. It is depressing.

[LeGrandBleu]

I think it is a distractive move due to the Cummings disaster.

[Blimeyoreilly2020]

I’m not a doomsayer and am usually properly hung ho....but on the basis of stats I’ve looked at and the thoughts of my (poss more than average) friends in the medical profession I think the second wave is inevitable (it’s just when) and may well come sooner than later...I do so wish we had a govt formed of capable human beings with proven track records but thanks to the rise of spin politics we’re stuck with a load of self serving numbskulls who might’ve been good at Latin but were clearly shit at science🙈

[Chessie678]

I think lockdown should be eased now. It isn’t so much that I believe a second wave is impossible as that the effects of lockdown are beginning to outweigh the harm caused by the virus. I think the public vastly underestimates the economic consequences of lockdown because they are not yet apparent (particularly as the furlough scheme is currently protecting a lot of jobs) and there’s a tendency to think of the economy as just being about rich people making money when in fact it affects everyone. Each week of lockdown costs billions and destroys businesses and people’s livelihoods and that will inevitably shorten the lives or decrease the quality of life of a very large number of people - many more than the 40,000 or so who have died prematurely due to coronavirus. The government have borrowed vast sums to fund the lockdown so far and that may have been the right thing to do given that they have borrowed at low rates but there is a limit somewhere and each extra amount spent on lockdown now is likely to cause harm to society in future. Recession inevitably costs lives. It’s difficult to weigh up saving a life against damaging quality of life but that is a judgment we also need to make e.g.if prolonging a life by 5 years means 20 children losing months of education or 10 people losing their jobs and struggling for the next decade as a result or 5 people developing mental health problems is it the right thing to do? Everyone will have a different view on what lengths we should go to to save lives but I don’t think we should prolong lives at any cost to others. The NHS has always had a concept of how much on average it will spend to save someone and already made judgments about treatment based on quality adjusted life years - I.e years that someone will live in good health if given a certain treatment so taking the monetary cost of measures into account is not a new concept.

There’s also no guarantee that further lockdown will prevent a second wave. It may just delay it. It is virtually guaranteed that further lockdown will have significant long term negative effects on almost everyone. So for me extending lockdown seems like the greater gamble at the moment.

I actually think that governments all over the world including ours have erred on the side of taking measures to save lives from coronavirus even where those measures are likely to cause more long term harm because the public can see deaths due to the virus ticking up day by day but can’t measure deaths caused by the short and long term consequences of lockdown. This is probably because the government will be blamed for the former and not for the latter.

And ultimately lockdown is an unprecedented restriction of peoples’ rights and I think that a very high level of evidence that it is necessary to avoid catastrophic harm should be required. I find it quite shocking that people have accepted such authoritarian- even Orwellian measures- so easily and that almost any measure now seems to be justified if it may reduce spread of the virus even slightly.

[EmeraldShamrock]

Absolutely the whole thing was a waste locking down. I know life goes on but at least make the effort to continue social distancing and shop only when necessary.
None of the groups are keeping a distance, kids playing basketball, gaa, passing the ball to each other, adult's passing beer at the garden barbecue with extended family and other neighbours yes go out but be mindful few of them are.

[Biglittlethings]

@highmarkingsnowbile

There was an uptick thanks to VE Day.

[Devlesko]

I don't trust this government for one minute, I think the virus was here in November, or that they knew by then it would arrive shortly.
I'd like to think that what me and dh had was a mild dose in January, but we'll never know, unless we catch it.
I think they are playing a game with us, for political gain.
They aren't stupid, and all follow each other like little lemmings.

[shinynewapple2020]

There has only been a small easing of restrictions, the most recent one about meeting 6 people I think is in response to people questioning that all previous easing was around the economy and work but their concern was around seeing family members.

From what I've seen, the risk assessments which schools need to
go through before readmitting pupils are very stringent.

I suppose the danger is that when you tell people they can have 6 people 2m apart in their garden , the number increases , they drink too much, stop distancing or even all squash into the house together , say, if it starts to rain.

I think the easing sounds safe enough if people do stick with what is recommended but I agree that a lot won't .

I don't really know about a second wave , I think that things will probably go on the general down direction at the moment but if it's not eradicated completely and there is no vaccine the likelihood is of the second wave occurring next winter.

[Tillygetsit]

I think it's madness. They're putting the economy before our health. Our lical council has said it does not think it's safe to reopen schools on Monday so will not be. This has come a a huge relief to me as I thought I was becoming unnecessarily paranoid.
The death toll will shoot up again due to crowded beaches, parties etc and we will be told by the Government that it is our fault.
I am so very angry at the handling of this whole debacle that I could scream for a very long time.