To think that it is crazy to be ending lockdown now, and that this will definitely lead to a disastrous second wave?

[Staysafer]

Given that the UK currently has 8,000 new cases of coronavirus a day and numbers now appear to be rising, and given that the 5 tests the Government insisted would need to be met have not been met, AIBU for worrying that ending lockdown now will inevitably lead to a hugely dangerous second wave?

Four members of SAGE, including Jeremy Farrar, the director of the Wellcome Trust, are now openly disagreeing with the government decision to ease lockdown.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52858392

I'd like people to vote on this because I think that it is still possible to avoid a second wave. But that requires action to be taken now, and also for everyone to be aware of their continuing need to socially distance and take precautions as before.

So YABU = you think ending lockdown will not lead to a second wave, it will all be fine.
YANBU = you think ending lockdown now will lead to a second wave.

NB This is one IABU where I really, really, really hope IABU. Unfortunately I don't think I am. But time will tell.

[Hingeandbracket]

There is certainly a massive increase in "there will be a massive second wave" threads.

[Nanny0gg]

There’s also no guarantee that further lockdown will prevent a second wave. It may just delay it. It is virtually guaranteed that further lockdown will have significant long term negative effects on almost everyone. So for me extending lockdown seems like the greater gamble at the moment.

^This. And whether we like it or not, the economy has^ to be restarted. We cannot afford to keep paying some people to stay at home. The figures for the unemployed are already eye-watering.

The current situation is untenable.

[recycledteenager24]

so many tossers out there were breaking / flouting lockdown rules during the lockdown and now seeing 1000's more on beaches ie durdle door were the idiots were tombstoning off the arch. these idiots were not social distancing at all. no sympathy or empathy for anyone who takes needless risks, and as for the scum using beaches etc as toilets and shed loads of litter every where for some other poor sod to clear up...

[Papatron]

"Interesting to see that currently almost 3 in 4 people do not want to see lockdown eased"

Wait until they no longer have a job or any furlough money.

Or until the penny drops that there won't be an NHS because whatever tax revenue remains will be going towards paying interest on the country's debt.

"Good news is we've extended lockdown to 2022 to allow time for a vaccine to be developed and tested and eliminate all risk from Corona.
Bad news is the retirement age is now 83. "

[MidsummerMurder]

If more people go back to work, with enforced SD and hand sanitising, perhaps that might work out better than hordes having endless time on their hands to socialise and be arses.

[cardibach]

I’m interested to know how all these people saying it’s been around for ages and we’ve all had it would go about explaining the excess death graphs from the ONS which onLy show Increases from when we ‘admitted’ the first case - so, you think those who contracted it before this point didn’t die because...what?

[Onone]

More deaths from suicide,cancer,strokes,heart attacks of lockdown doesn’t end,plus we are a small island cramped in with a lot of people

[Onone]

If

[recycledteenager24]

people need to get back to work and be aware of others around them. sooner the better,

[emilybrontescorsett]

People need to be sensible. Stay isolated at home and never go out if you want (and can afford to) go out for walks if you choose to.
It’s a balancing act.
Some people have sacrificed more than others, as always.
Someone had to foot the bill, as always.
The is no one size fits all.
Some people have broken the rules repeatedly. Others have abided by the rules.

[londonscalling]

I read this recently ...

Lockdown is NOT being relaxed because we are now safe. Nothing has changed.
It’s simply because there is now room for you in intensive care.

That's a very sobering (and depressing) thought!

[Wotsitsarecheesy]

Excellent post @Chessie678. I agree that lockdown needs to end, but think we still need to keep practising social distancing where possible. We may well get an increase in covid cases/deaths, but from what we now know of the virus, I think the dangers of continuing lockdown are greater, and could ultimately cause even more deaths. Poverty, late/non diagnosis of illnesses, mental health issues - all of these kill people.

My GP referred me for cancer tests in January. The consultant appointment was cancelled ("we will contact you again in due course") and my sample will still be sitting somewhere untested. I am choosing not to worry about this, but there will be many thousands of others like me, and how many will now have a worse outcome because of the testing delay? And all those whose treatments have stopped? Or those that aren't even seeing their GP because they are trying not to burden the NHS?

We know there will be many 000s of deaths due to lockdown, but they aren't making the headlines now like the covid cases are. I really do think that the best option is to open up the economy, with social distancing in place where possible, and let people make their own decisions. My big concern relates to those employers who would not be sympathetic to staff concerns, or who insist vulnerable staff members work in risky environments. I don't know how to solve this, except maybe to continue the furlough scheme for any on the shielding or vulnerable list only. There simply are no correct answers.

[buckeejit]

I have 2dc, 6 & 10. We've mostly adhered to guidelines strictly & I took them out of school a week before lockdown due to concerns about the virus.

I do think people need to get back to work but should wfh where possible & stay careful.

Where we've 'flouted the guidelines' is a couple occasions meeting other families in their gardens & dc can't seem able to keep 2m apart. I'm hoping that is still very low risk but worried for them if not. Still keeping distance from my parents who are 70+

I am worried about winter when we can't be outside to socialise. There will be a big responsibility on everyone to isolate if they have symptoms but I imagine most people will say oh it's just a cold & carry on. Another part of me is a little bit hopeful that the virus will die out by winter, while still being as cautious as I can & going slowly

[buckeejit]

I should say I'm in NI where I don't think we've peaked yet. Our NHS was under immense pressure before this & waiting times were atrocious

[Pleasenodont]

The government just wanted to keep people on side to avoid riots and protests. They accepted the fact swathes of the British public are fucking idiots so ended it before it got out of hand. The police could never control the amount of people ‘rebelling’ and they knew it. We don’t have the control other countries do or perhaps our nation is just more bloody stupid.

[KnickersandGnomes]

I'm thinking they want the second wave over and (hopefully) done with in the summer which does make sense.

It's still horrible though, I would not want to be the person having to make the decision but if I was I'd probably ease the lockdown just now with a view to probably having to reintroduce it in some shape or form in a couple of months time.

[DrManhattan]

It depends if you can catch it more than once. No one seems to know the answer to that at the moment

[TitianaTitsling]

Lockdown is NOT being relaxed because we are now safe. Nothing has changed.
It’s simply because there is now room for you in intensive care.. I've only seen this as a virtue signalling, scare mongering meme. Agree with pp that many seem to delight in the prospect of a second wave in order to allow more self righteous behaviour.

[attackedbycritters]

Or wait till they see that the NHS fails as all the money is going to pay off the debt

THe NHS was born at the time when the british debt was astronomical, just after the Second World War
We have only just finished paying off that debt

If we follow the logic that large national debt is such as disaster then over that last five years since we paid off that debt lives are suddenly so much better, health is improving, suicides have declined, so much more money for the NHS

Which has not happened at all. Lives and health improved whilst we had the debt and declined once we had paid it off because of political choices not economics

National economics isn't like household economics , the rules are very different

[BogRollBOGOF]

There always was capacity in ITU

[cardibach]

@TitianaTitsling

*Lockdown is NOT being relaxed because we are now safe. Nothing has changed.
It’s simply because there is now room for you in intensive care.*. I've only seen this as a virtue signalling, scare mongering meme. Agree with pp that many seem to delight in the prospect of a second wave in order to allow more self righteous behaviour.

Or - not virtue signalling but a reminder what lockdown was for...

Also @BogRollBOGOF there was always capacity in ICU because of all the hundreds left in care homes to die.

Literally nobody is ‘delighting’ in the thought if a second wave. They are all fucking terrified of it.

[BogRollBOGOF]

It's easy to notice the people "flouting" the social rules on the beaches, beauty spots and parks because there's little else to do including a lot of work, school and no organised social activities and venues.

We don't notice the people abiding by the rules and those staying in because they're not on display.

If there is to be a second wave, better to have it in the summer when social distancing is easier in a safer outdoors environment, people are topped up on vitamin D and not run down with the usual array of winter illnesses.

The other European countries don't seemto be excperiencing second spikes regardless of the approaches that they've used.

People are already suffering from lockdown. Redundancy. Delayed healthcare. Heavily compromised access to education. Minimal support for SENs and mental health. Relationship breakdown. Abuse. Suicide. The longer this goes on for, the greater the toll of that suffering and deaths. There are children being damaged that will bear the toll for decades.

It is right to cautiously ease the lockdown and get backto a real normality. There are babies a few months old who've never been held by anyone other than their own household. There are old people dying regardless of Covid, lonely and alone.

Humans are sociable and need purpose. We can not continue existing indefinitely in a half-life while time (and other health issues) tick on.

(And that viewpoint does not mean that I have been doing any flouting)

[BogRollBOGOF]

The lockdown, shut down of routine care and Nightingale hospitals enabled the ITUs to continue to have capacity. They never exceded 60-70%.

That space in ITU meme is disingenuous because it implies that ITU was full and now lockdown has been eased because it isn't any more.

If it pointed out the compromises that were made to maintain capacity, it might actually have a point, but it tends to get used to shut down people doing outrageous things like leaving the house even if it's well within the guidelines. Most people with Covid 19 won't end ip in hospital let alone ITU. (Not that I'd want to put myself a high risk of catching it anyway)

[Staysafer]

@Hingeandbracket

There is certainly a massive increase in "there will be a massive second wave" threads.

That might just be because we are due to end lockdown tomorrow?!

So the number of threads might possibly reflect the number of people who are really worried right now?

We weren't so worried last month, because the PM only announced the end of the lockdown a few days ago to coincide with Dominic Cummings being caught breaking the lockdown.

[PowerslidePanda]

I'm thinking they want the second wave over and (hopefully) done with in the summer which does make sense.

No it doesn't. Unless it's 10x larger than the first one, a wave during the summer will have no bearing on whether there's one in winter. The only difference would be that we'd call the winter one the third wave instead of the second.