To ask what people understand the consequences of 'Hard Brexit' are

[Bearbehind]

It's no secret I'm a Remainer but I'm at the point where I think the only option might well be Hard Brexit and live with the consequences to avoid a situation where 'the will of the people' was ignored.

What do people think a No Deal Brexit will entail?

A total and utter shitstorm.

I have asked that MN leave this thread in AIBU as I'm genuinely interested in the thoughts of those who don't spend time in the Brexit section.

If you don't like seeing Brexit threads please ignore it or hide it.

A terrible situation in Ireland without a 'backstop' arrangement

Problems with importing and exporting goods, especially problematic for medicines and food

I'm concerned about rising food prices, at the very least. They're going up already.

How will food banks cope with more people relying on them?

trouble with importing foods and also the ports being in chaos

Brexit is about the future life of our country. Not making our lives easier.

Freikorps why would we want to make our lives more difficult?

What is the benefit?

A deep recession caused by, firms who export to EU going out of business as a result of tariffs on their exports making their goods and services uncompetitive, large employers leaving Britain, less money in people's pockets as the cost of imported goods rises, increased costs for businesses in the form of the extra time and admin.

That I would notice, I expect:

shortage of seemingly random goods in shops, empty spaces on shelves, like when Sainsburys had logistical problems about 5 yrs ago.

Worse, trying to get specialist goods will take longer (say a specific part to repair the photocopier or a bicycle), much longer waiting for arrival (extra week or so). Will be harder to source & more expensive, too.

More expensive durable goods.

Certain foods become less reliably in shops; like trying to find parsnips in July or baking apples in April.

Announcements of small manufacturing companies shutting down.

MORE obviously foreign workers, especially in NHS (Philipino & Vietnamese nurses), academia & IT (Indians). Higher salaries for the skilled workers now that UK competes more directly with likes of USA for these high skilled products of middle income countries.

Lots of consumer news stories about changes for people holidaying in EU countries (more expensive insurance, people caught out with no health insurance, overstaying visas, incorrect driving licenses, etc.)

For what it's worth, these are my thoughts:-

• Hard border in NI leading to return to violence
• Restrictions on travel and movement in general
• Lack of UK investment, particularly in the car industry as businesses will just move to mainland EU to avoid complications
• Increased cost of living due to tariffs and non-tariff barriers
• Reduced availability of goods due to delays / increased costs no longer making them viable
• Labour shortages in areas which have previously been propped up by immigrants like seasonal work and the NHS.

hmmm never thought about spare parts

I would expect to see an exponential rise in threads on MN about the end of the world. An outpouring of angst from remainers mourning the loss of their EU identity and lots of people declaring they are leaving the UK.

Meanwhile back in the real world, on the 1st of April 2019 we will see very little difference and when the hubbub dies down life will carry on as normal.

Utter, unadulterated chaos. For example:

• Trade. No deal means UK reverting to WTO rules. This renders the UK a '3rd country'. Cost of food, goods etc would most definitely have to rise because we'd face EU's external tariffs. And imports from EU would be subject to tariffs - it doesn't take a genius to work out who businesses will pass the extra 'cost' to; UK consumers.

• Economy. No deal means businesses will need to think smart and quickly on their feet. Many companies will transfer the heart of their operations to countries within the EU to avoid the ensuing red tape no deal will bring about. Many firms operate under JIT (just-in-time) - a manufacturing process to streamline the production process. Delays to this process will incur huge costs to companies. British firms that sell their wares to the EU will most likely tank because a no deal means the EU will not be compelled to recognise UK regulatory standards. It should also be noted that no-one has yet even began to consider what sort of regulatory framework the UK would pursue. If it chooses to pursue one identical to the EU then you could rightly ask then why leave? The UK will have to be rule-taker by virtue of being a neighbour to a huge trading bloc.

• Qualifications. If there's a budding young British Law graduate that fancies pursuing a legal career in say for example France then they can wave that dream goodbye. Again, the EU will not be compelled to accept UK qualifications.

• Irish border. A no deal means that the EU's external frontier will effectively be created by legal and physical division on the island of Ireland. No-one wants to see physical infrastructure between IE & NI but when push comes to shove maintaining the integrity of the single market is crucial to the EU.

• The Economy, again. Trade deals take years and years to hash out, negotiate and implement. We're leaving next March ergo I'd say the Queen has more chance of giving birth to a Unicorn in the next 5 months than the UK does striking any meaningful trade deals.

Scotland going for independence and rejoining the EU

Loosening of consumer protections, so shorter warrenties on electronics, currently banned chemicals being used and lower standards of labelling and ingredients in food. Things that other companies will insist on if we want a trade deal, that the Eurozone used their size to resist.

Also a loosening of employee protections, with the excuse that health and safety, maternity protection and other red tape is hampering business and risking recession.

Big news stories & controversy about compromising to achieve trade deals which means we must accept chlorinated chicken or GMO foods or other such.

What i don't get is how hard brexit is the will of the people. 48% voted remain. Out of the remaining 52%, we don't know how many wanted a soft as opposed to a hard Brexit. Even if only one in ten brexiteers were thinking soft Brexit, that still means a majority against a hard Brexit.

Does it matter? We have no choice what will be will be. They didn't listen when we protested before and they won't now.

In the immediate/short term:

• price increases on everyday items which are imported - so many foods that we just wouldn’t think about.
• shortage of said items as things take longer to get here due to restrictions in movement of goods and price increases.
• potentially cheaper holidays as firms try to encourage people to still travel to mainland Europe despite the added restrictions.
• increasing unrest in NI, and if Stormont isn’t up and running before Brexit happens, then it won’t get up and running afterwards.

In the longer term:

• increase in British-made products
• higher costs as we buy locally made products by companies with higher overheads and staff who demand (rightly) a fair and decent wage.
• the break up of the U.K. - I believe Scotland will have another referendum and I think they will get it next time, and I think a Irish border vote is likely in the next 10 years, with every chance it would be successful. (Not that the Republic wants us anyway!)

All in - we’re buggered

What i don't get is how hard brexit is the will of the people.

It's not.

At best 26% of the population made a positive vote for Brexit and, of those, many belived staying in SM/CU was possible, or at least, the deal 'would be easiest in history'

Now we've reached a point where Theresa May knows it's going to be a monumental fuck up so her only option is to say 'it's the will of the people'

I.e., when it goes wrong it's their fault not hers.

I'm just not convinced many Leavers know what it's going to lead to but I do think the only way out is to let them see for themselves because 'Project Fear' is just dismissed.

I would say that companies moving abroad may be more staggered rather than an immediate effect. Just look at Unilever - shareholders hated the idea of splitting the company to go to Rotterdam so it has been scrapped for now

The issue with Unilever boiled down to being in the FTSE or not.

That's not an issue for the big car manufacturers based here so they'll leave as soon as they get a chance.

It doesn't make any sense to invest in a country which is potentially subject to restrictions on JIT which make your manufacturing process unviable.

Nissan, What is Nissan going to do if there is No Deal?
Sunderland voted 61% for LEAVE. :(

I fear lots of compromises in food standards and consumer and employment rights in return for trade deals with countries like the USA.

Lower tax receipts due to recession means austerity will certainly not end and the rather than having the extra cash we were promised the NHS will have a lot less.

A return to violence in NI.

That's a perfect example lljkk those who voted Leave in Sunderland need to understand the consequences of Hard Brexit.

If actually going through with it is what it takes then maybe, so be it.