To ask what people understand the consequences of 'Hard Brexit' are

[Bearbehind]

It's no secret I'm a Remainer but I'm at the point where I think the only option might well be Hard Brexit and live with the consequences to avoid a situation where 'the will of the people' was ignored.

What do people think a No Deal Brexit will entail?

How about all the remainers move to Scotland and then we vote for Scottish independence and remain in the eu and leave the leavers to their little England and their shit racist views. Ahhhhh

maintaining control over our superior common law legal system.

AFAIK all law used in England and Wales is passed by Parliament.

Having greater control over our own economy

I'll take this to mean control of our money, another Leave lie. We already have control of our money via The Bank of England. It is our magic money tree that has kept the banks alive via QE and ZIRP.

If you do mean the economy then yes, taking back control means the global banks will move to Europe, meaning the money laundering capital of the world will lose thousands of jobs, manufacturers using JIT will take the short term financial hit for the long term gain by moving overseas. That's probably over 500k jobs and a massive loss to our GDP.

Thanks Camerwrong, Grease Smug, and all the other rich corrupt types who give no fucks about us ordinary types.

Doctor - we have a common law legal system cf the civil law legal system operated by most of Europe counties the corner stones of that, what I think to be far supported common law system would be challenged. With the increasingly wide reading the ECJ take if the 4fundamental freedoms I believe the apparatus whereby this could be done are already in place.Although the legal system operated by the EU is meant to be hybrid or Ltd becoming increasing clear it’s not and it by necessity causes issues in legal areas where the supremacy of EU law exists, which is where the Regulations passed by The EU are imputed into our own statute books and spirit Directives have to be achieved by domestic legislation (although where Directives are capable of having Direct effect, if I remember correctly an EU citizen has enforceable rights regardless). I’m sure a lawyer in here could clarify though as that’s a simplistic leavers view point and we all know we’re stupid and understand very little.

Re the economy, I meant the way in which countries make and handle the money on a government level. I don’t believe we can have emEU wide economic policy when there are such differing ways in which countries make money and choose to spend it. It’s bad enough in the UK (ironically a point much mentioned by certain Scottish first ministers) without trying to align the economies of many different countries, with diverse needs, cultures, politics and history, probably ok when looking largely at France,Germany and Spain but more problematic with countries whose economies have more in common with the third world.

Hope that helps clarify what I actually meant.

I meant UK not Spain obviously

I don’t believe we can have emEU wide economic policy when there are such differing ways in which countries make money and choose to spend it.
There is no EU wide policy
Every country sets its own priorities
THe UK has the most deregulated markets in Europe
it has the weakest employment rights
it is the most centralised economy
Brexit will exacerbate that,

But as soon as the EU decide where it’s monies are spent there becomes a de facto EU economic policy

Being forced into a Federal Europe - wow is that a policy now? I must have missed it. Please could you link to the policy directives that prove this is a point and not just idle speculation.

IMO it’s the way it was heading in the next 10 to 20 years.

But as soon as the EU decide where it’s monies are spent there becomes a de facto EU economic policy
The EU budget is a VERY SMALL part of the total budget of the member countries.

The EU has no impact on different countries

• employment rules
• land ownership rules
• local government rules
• trade union rules
• transport policy
• energy mix policy

and nor does it have any plan or capacity to do so

I expect the pound will take a little bit of a nosedive the day after but everything will else will appear the same. One month on from that there will be chaos. One year on from that the UK will be unrecognisable.

I could be wrong, but I've been correct with all my previous predictions.

Aahhhhh you have no facts or policies to back up what you say it's just your opinion.

What I call a Brexit argument.

You would fail a GCSE using this type of 'argument' - schools teach very young children you need to provide evidence to back up your opinions.

Issues in Ireland re the boarder which will probably be solveable but will be hijaked by people on both sides of the republic/Union debate for their own agenda

“Which will probably be solvable” - not exactly a glowing vote of confidence there deadbudgie! Still - you seem to be dismissing the issues in NI - are you an expert on the situation in NI? Do you live there? Did you live there through the 70s/80s/90s? What do you know that the rest of us don’t? Or perhaps you just don’t give a fuck.

Yes "will be solveable" - didn't like to say that's arrogant bollocks to be polite.
Arrogant bollocks.

Mousemoose
Ahhhh - as no formal policy has yet been made for a federalised Europe I can’t produce a policy document. However many academics who specialise in constitutional law eg professor R Daniel Keleman (who I suppose might have academic qualifications beyond GCSE equivalents) note that the EU has increasing federalised markers since Maastricht indeed Weiler notes that already “Europe has chartered its own brand of federalism”. The euro and schengin are such markers both of which the UK has resisted but how much longer can the UK keep out of such moves without becoming an ever smaller and insignificant voice. At this point it’s fair to say the parties to the marriage wanted different things and it’s best to seperate.

I don’t believe we can have emEU wide economic policy when there are such differing ways in which countries make money and choose to spend it

Neither do the EU. The Eurozone is the thing that's going to fall apart, due to Germany being just about the only country that benefits. That could be the catalyst that sinks the Euro. Yanis' book 'And The Weak Suffer What They Must?' is a must read on the history and probable future of the Euro. Oh, I recommend 'Adults In The Room' too, it's jaw dropping.

All of this speculative thought about how the EU might or might not develop

Maybe the UK should have elected MEPs who engaged and tried to change it from within
rather than take the cash and not turn up to meetings

and these theoretical changes to the Euro zone
how will Brexit change anything
the UK is not in the Euro - never was, probably never will be

Tami, bellin yes probably solvable if people are willing to work together and compromise, but as I said it’s an issue likely to be hijaked by the very complex nature of the relationships that exist in Eire and in n Ireland. It is probably one of the most complicated matters of Brexit. But as we are coming out it will have to be solved, what’s the alternative??? If you look at what’s stopping there being an easy border there, either a hard or a soft border it is people agendas that exist well beyond the scope of Brexit. It’s going to be impossible to please everyone with this, but it’s up to the people with those agendas to understand not everyone will be 100% happy with the outcome but something has to change.

Federalism is quite a loose term constitutionally it can mean different things to different people. The idea of subsidiarity can been seen as federal. So increasing 'federal markers' may just be in terms of the EU working together.

Often in these discussions federalism is used to mean a large EU with subservient countries which really is to misunderstand the whole concept of federalism. Please correct me if you have a different vision of federalism in the EU.

The veto exists within the EU and it could be used to block closer political union. Also, EU membership is controversial in several countries so a move to closer union looks significantly less likely than it did 10 or 15 years ago. The U.K. could work with more euro sceptic countries to block any moves.

Federalism is a term waved around by Brexit supporters but frequently with no clear understanding of what it means.

I'm not necessarily a fan of 'Ever closer union' but the notion that a group of people who have well and truly drank the kool-aid are currently gathered together in a basement somewhere in the European Commission hatching plans for a federalised Europe is nonsense. Whilst I don't dispute that this might be the end of goal of some, it is equally true that the end goal of others is to entirely dismantle the EU institution. This sort of misguided hyperbole is why we have ended up here. The UK has always had opt-outs. UK exceptionalism is something of a running joke among our European contemporaries.

Doctor thanks I’ll look into those books, I’m interested to see what the Greeks thought of the austerity effectively imposed on them, which makes the tories look like philanthropists! I actually don’t mind which way people go on this point but there seems a lack of education about what the EU is and could be! I believe if everyone would educate themselves more there would be much more progress and balance on this topic.There’s arguments for and against.the Irish border is probably the most problematic, not because of the mechanics of Brexit but the management of divisions within the island.

Ever closer union would only happen if the heads if 27 governments with a very wide range of views about such a move can agree to it. So while possible it becomes less likely and vetos can be applied even then.
While a criticism of 'inertia' can be leveled at the EU, the same inertia can make it more stable.

Part of the issue with Greece is that a degree of 'financial manipulation' was applied by the Greek government to allow it to join. It possibly shouldn't have joined. When combined with a reluctance of some industries within Greece to pay taxes that were due it makes the problem rather worse.

The issue of refugees and economic migrants from across the Mediterranean SHOULD have been reacted to far quicker. Boats were landing giving an instant problem for the Southern countries and the more northern countries need(ed) to be persuaded to either take them in, or help with funds and pay the southern countries to host them.
Mrs Merkel did the right thing in humanitarian terms, but was not backed up by other EU leaders to manage the situation in a more balanced and planned way.

Oh yes, Greece and its shape-shifting fiscal spreadsheets.

Mouse, you are right federalism can mean different things to different people. Many think of the USA as a model but even then there’s often a big misunderstanding of how this work. To me federalism in the EU looks like unified currency, Supreme Court having authority over matters within its jurisdiction (which seem to be evergrowing with the ECJ), laws overlaying all the members on an equal basis of which all its citizens are subject, supreme institutions. Most of these are already there. I’d also look at markers such as unified military (we’ve already seen some subtle nods in this direction), common taxation (which would be supplementary to the local taxes) - yes I know this is supposed to have sovereignty stamped all over it but the eu did start sniffing round Ireland - how long before someone starts muttering something about freedom of establishment - we’ve already seen several long standing UK antiavoidance tax laws attacked on this basis! And finally a foreign policy. Obviously no one is going to come out with “ in 20 years time we will be a United States of Europe” but I see a strong potential for it to head that way. Yes we can always veto this (along with Denmark lol) but at what point down the line do we say we have irreconcilable differences? Or do we just tag along with very little say in the direction this thing is going? As Vladimir puts it were already seen as the troublesome member, it won’t be long til were ignored as the difficult child as the EI moves in one direction and we stay in 1992! The rules to which we are subject will be drafted to meet the needs of the majority which will by they be very different to our own. Yes the eurozone will probably collapse ( or at least it should unless Germany and potentially France manage to prop it up) and cause a major shit storm, hopefully after March.