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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

To ask what people understand the consequences of 'Hard Brexit' are

216 replies

Bearbehind · 07/10/2018 18:02

It's no secret I'm a Remainer but I'm at the point where I think the only option might well be Hard Brexit and live with the consequences to avoid a situation where 'the will of the people' was ignored.

What do people think a No Deal Brexit will entail?

OP posts:
Ta1kinpeace · 08/10/2018 22:04

Vladimir is SO pleased that you believe him Hmm

Deadbudgie · 08/10/2018 22:08

Eh? I was referencing Vladimir’s post upthread

Moussemoose · 08/10/2018 22:16

As you say the "eurozone will probably collapse"....possibly. And this makes any move to a more unified EU less likely.

The issues the EU has faced recently added to the fact that newer members like Poland and Hungary are less keen on closer integration means any form of federalism is significantly less likely.

Many of the points you make unified military, ECJ etc are just symptoms of a more unified world. We will be subject to global laws and rules made by the
WTO or NATO or the ECHR or which ever multinational bodies we choose to join.

We can't return to 'splendid isolation' that world doesn't exist. The choice is not to join in or not join in it's who do we join with.

The EU is our closest neighbour we have long standing cultural and political ties it is a case of better the devil you know and better the devil you have a veto over.

Ta1kinpeace · 08/10/2018 22:17

Ah phew,
because of course the person who most stands to benefit from Brexit (and who funded the Leave campaign) is a different Vladimir
the one whose trolls have been planting lots of those "EU expansionist" stories in the press

Deadbudgie · 08/10/2018 22:24

Ta1k - maybe they’re hiding in plain sight and posting on mumsnet (whilst on sightseeing trips to Salisbury looking at the world second highest click tower or something😂😂😂). Come on Vladmir are you double bluffing us????

Ta1kinpeace · 08/10/2018 22:25

Tee Hee

But it is sadly true that a lot of the random EU conspiracy stories come from troll farms

Deadbudgie · 08/10/2018 22:40

Talk it’s the way of the world these days (and perhaps always has been) people putting out false Info to manipulate the situation to their advantage. So long as you have people in charge there’s always going to be manipulation to follow their agenda. You can only try and navigate through it. The EU is an interesting one, it’s a vote that should never have gone to the public really as the matters are so complex and it takes a lot of digging to reach any impartial info. From what I see the majority of voters on both sides didn’t do much research. Thanks to the rubbish campaigns most didn’t really know what they were voting for there was no decent info on either side. I was and still am in the middle on all this, I could argue for either side. But on balance looking at how I felt I went leave. I guess who knows what will be or could have been. I just think we now need to accept where we are and stick together to try and make the future the best it can be

bathsh3ba · 08/10/2018 22:41

I will never forget being in Paris in 2005 when the French voted against an EU referendum and were told to vote again. Nor will I forget the disgust in the voices of the political science students I was studying with when they said what a stupid idea it was to ask 'the people'. I have the same sick feeling in my stomach now but not because we are leaving the EU, because so many people seem to share this viewpoint that 'the people' shouldn't be trusted to vote.
Whatever the short term consequences I don't want to be part of a club that tells people they voted wrong and they should vote again. From day one the EU's aim was a 'United States of Europe'. No thanks. When the furore has died down, we'll do alright.

DoctorTwo · 08/10/2018 22:43

France won't be able to prop up the Euro, Only the ECB can do that. France isn't next, that's probably Italy, but France is verkacht. (Cheers Mel).

Deutsche Bank has the highest un-hedged derivatives deals ever, they are fucked. Our banks in Britain however are probably more corrupt. See HSBC and RBS.

Jason118 · 08/10/2018 22:44

When the furore has died down, we'll do alright.

Thank God for that, I'm relieved now.

VladmirsPoutine · 08/10/2018 23:12

@Deadbudgie Eh? If you read my posts from very early on in this thread (not even the countless ones I've posted on across the site), I'm firmly a remainer. I've worked quite extensively in EU affairs and often pop-up on Brexit threads attempting to dispel entrenched myths. I make no secret of the fact that the EU has its failings - but what institution doesn't. Frankly I think Juncker is unfit for the job but I have a lot of time for say, for example, Donald Tusk.

@bathsh3ba You're wrong. Firstly, from 'day one' the EU's aim was not a 'United States of Europe'. Secondly, I absolutely think that 'the people' should not have free rein to make such decisions. I wonder where that £350million funding is for the NHS... has the cheque cleared yet? If so then hold all the referendums you like.

bathsh3ba · 08/10/2018 23:17

Funny, I must have been taught a load of rubbish in all my EU studies lectures at university then, since I distinctly recall being taught that. And reading it in a number of textbooks.

You think I'm wrong. I think you're wrong. Variety is the spice of life and all.

SemperIdem · 08/10/2018 23:38

baths

I wasn’t taught that when I studied EU law Confused

Splurge77 · 09/10/2018 00:50

Recession, poverty, being a global laughing stock slowly sliding into irrelevance.

Deadbudgie · 09/10/2018 06:03

Vladmirs, yes I can see you’re a remainder but your previous post did remind us all that were basically a laughing stock in the EU voting against the EU all the time anyway

bellinisurge · 09/10/2018 06:07

"It’s going to be impossible to please everyone with this, but it’s up to the people with those agendas to understand not everyone will be 100% happy with the outcome but something has to change."
This is a comment on the Irish border to which the reply is " why does something have to change. The people who live there don't want it to. The "change " was the GFA. Which Brexit messes with.

BackInTime · 09/10/2018 09:09

If you look at what’s stopping there being an easy border there, either a hard or a soft border it is people agendas that exist well beyond the scope of Brexit.

This is not simply an issue of people with agendas. These are real people who’s homes and lives crisscross the border on a daily basis, who’s businesses depend on being able to move freely, families living a few miles apart either side, people working one side and living in the other.

The social and political consequences of a return to any boarder just does not bear thinking about. Those who engaged in terrorism during the troubles are still about, many have turned to organised crime others to politics. Any decision to have a border in Ireland risks the GFA and a return to violence in NI.

The only ‘agenda’ people in NI have is not to return to the horrific dark days of the past.

Fatasfook · 09/10/2018 09:11

Is there any arguments from the leave side that this is good for the uk? What are the benefits of Brexit? Anything that isn’t “we voted out so deal with it you filthy remoaner!”
Or “we want to control our borders!”

bellinisurge · 09/10/2018 09:23

@Fatasfook - leavers will point to possible positives that can only possibly happen many years down the line. Which could even more possibly be achieved by not leaving but you don't get a free trampoline or unicorn.

AwdBovril · 09/10/2018 10:14

I read a while ago that formula could also rise in price and be subject to shortages
Yes, it was listed, amongst other dairy products, as "occasional luxuries". I don't think I'm alone in thinking that feeding a baby should be considered an occasional luxury. Breastfeeding rates could go up, even to near 100%, but some women do suffer total lactation failure, and obviously as this isn't predictable, it wouldn't be remotely practical to stock up in advance. I suspect that in any case, post Brexit, maternity rights, especially pay, are not likely to improve, so many mothers are unlikely to be able to afford to stay on maternity leave for the recommended year in any case.

BestZebbie · 09/10/2018 10:35

Some of the above, but also having to pay import tax on goods posted from the EU, as we currently have to do if buying things from America. So you buy stuff online and then have to pay nearly the same again to release the parcel from the depot.

Terryscombover · 19/12/2018 10:36

Baths -- it isn't an opinion. Either the legal text set out for a federal EU or it didn't (it didn't). And it's ruled out in the Treaty of Lisbon (the co author was schooling some troll on Twitter when they asked him if he had read it after he stated this).

Terryscombover · 19/12/2018 10:38

I work in Brexit planning for an industry none of us can do without and those of you saying "It will be fine, it's smoke and mirrors from remoaners" will have a very big shock.

TimandGinger · 19/12/2018 10:45

@VladmirsPoutine a young law graduate isn't going to get a job in France even when while we're in the EU anyway - our legal system and the way law is made is totally different to France's.

LaurieMarlow · 19/12/2018 10:57

If you look at what’s stopping there being an easy border there, either a hard or a soft border it is people agendas that exist well beyond the scope of Brexit.

First of all, dear god will you stop calling ROI 'Eire'. It's total ignorance to call it that.

Secondly, no that's total bollocks. Aside from any EU issues, the WTO requires a hard border between nations that don't have trade agreements (for example, the EU). That's the way of the modern world (which leavers have enormous difficulties in understanding).