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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

To ask what people understand the consequences of 'Hard Brexit' are

216 replies

Bearbehind · 07/10/2018 18:02

It's no secret I'm a Remainer but I'm at the point where I think the only option might well be Hard Brexit and live with the consequences to avoid a situation where 'the will of the people' was ignored.

What do people think a No Deal Brexit will entail?

OP posts:
StealthPolarBear · 08/10/2018 08:54

I darent ask. I am not starting that conversation.

tillytrotter1 · 08/10/2018 08:55

I've never yet got an answer from anyone who voted to leave about what they expected to happen as a consequence, they seemed to expect that the next day the door would be slammed shut!
If this fiasco proves anything it's that some decisions are too complex for a referendum.
Good luck to those who voted for it, I'm 70 but I fear for my grandchildren's futures.

Parsleyisntfood · 08/10/2018 08:55

I voted for Scottish independence and against leaving the EU. Not lightly in either case. Honestly I am dead against another Scottish vote. I do not want to live in Scotland in Europe, north of England and Wales out of Europe. It’s not about national pride (I have none). We’re in this together now. I work for a heavily regulated industry, there’s no British regularly body that can come into existence and get ratified with every other international body in 5 months. It will simply have to stop. I feel this will focus the mind of the government and the public.
Presumably though there will have to be an extension to leaving. And deals can actually be done in that time where the UK concedes that we can’t leave and have the same terms as if we stayed.
Can anyone in banking say if the banks will keep functioning with no deal? Presumably money can’t be moved international without deals in place therefore crushing all banking?

NoSleepTil2030 · 08/10/2018 08:56

Short term

  • shortages of food, fuel and medicines, made worse by people panic buying in the days around the leave date
  • problems with people trying to visit the EU from the UK

Followed by

  • multinational businesses moving work outwith the UK
  • that'll cause economic slowdown and then lots of small/medium British businesses will start to close too
  • much higher unemployment and worse pay and conditions for the jobs that are around
  • more austerity and cuts to public services

I think in 15-20 years time the UK is going to be a middle income country with the attached quality of life. And lots of our young people will want to (and will) emigrate.

Though I'm still hopeful that, because it will be SO SHIT, there might be a last minute cancellation or at least extension of negotiations. Whether or not that happens through a GE or a second vote I don't know.

longwayoff · 08/10/2018 09:02

I said to my grandchildren on Brexit morning "this is how civil wars begin and dictators arise". Cue hilarity all round. Inconceivable to them. Not so now.

BackInTime · 08/10/2018 09:05

I don’t think it can be ignored because so many people voted. It’s something that people feel strongly about.

I think people were sold a lie that the process of leaving would be easy with the EU begging us for a trade deal and they believed false promises of extra cash for the NHS. All people heard was that the EU was responsible for all our woes and by ‘taking our country back’ these things would be magically solved.

You could see by the shocked faces of the leave politicians the morning of the result, that they really did not want this to happen either. It was a look of ‘oh sh** what have we done’.

I will never forget it.

KennDodd · 08/10/2018 09:13

I don’t think it can be ignored because so many people voted. It’s something that people feel strongly about

I actually heard somebody in real life say 'they need us more than we need them' a couple of days ago.

Fatasfook · 08/10/2018 09:14

We need another vote, ideally with a legal requirement to do so. Was is around a third of the population who actually voted for Brexit? If that? Hardly the will of the people. Apathy is to blame for this fiasco. Voting should be compulsory

BackInTime · 08/10/2018 09:14

Also I have heard very little convincing arguments from politicians since the vote about how it will benefit the UK to leave the EU. Other than the occasional mention of possible trade deals but no real positives for the economy.

They actually know it’s a really bad idea but have to go along with it because ‘the people have voted’. I just wish TM would have the balls to lay it out for the public about what we are really letting ourselves in for.

KennDodd · 08/10/2018 09:28

Look at the audience on programmes like Question Time and news website comments, there's still an awful lot of support for hard, cliff edge, Brexit. Look at Tory party conference. Maybe you're right and we have to go through this although as I said earlier, if it's really chaotic and harmful to us that may well only INCREASE anti EU feeling in the short term.

bellinisurge · 08/10/2018 09:32

@KennDodd - I also heard "they need us more than we need them" bollocks recently.
I think an economic catastrophe will be treated as an EU/Remainer sabotage plot by some of these idiots.
Sod them.

NoSleepTil2030 · 08/10/2018 09:34

I just wish TM would have the balls to lay it out for the public about what we are really letting ourselves in for.

Agree 100%. I can only think the reason she (& politicians in general) don't is because they're afraid of civil unrest if they ignore "the will of the people". But civil unrest is going to be a lot worse if people are hungry, in need of medication for themselves/their loved ones and losing their jobs.

Original poster
Bearbehind · 08/10/2018 09:41

I just wish TM would have the balls to lay it out for the public about what we are really letting ourselves in for.

The problem is, Leavers don't want to listen. It's all dismissed as Project Fear.

That's why TM keeps mentioning 'the will of the people'. It's really just saying 'this will be your fault'.

It's alarming but not really surprising that Leavers are literally closing their eyes and ears to any consequences of Hard Brexit and crossing their fingers.

OP posts:
Fatasfook · 08/10/2018 09:42

35% of the population voted for Brexit. Who knows what percentage of that 35% have changed their minds. So it’s a small pocket of the population who would be pissed off if we didn’t leave. Civil unrest unlikely

Terryscombover · 08/10/2018 09:51

For all you saying it's scaremongering and we won't noticing anything - do any of you work on implementing Brexit for a company that imports and exports globally?

I do and it's a fucking shit storm coming and the Government admit this - read the no deal notices. They know it's not going to pass without major and negative impact on all of us. Like this government would pay to stockpile medicines if they though the ports would remain operational??

If you voted for this shit at least admit what you've voted for. Lying or hiding behind ignorance isn't acceptable any more - this will be your fault!

Original poster
Bearbehind · 08/10/2018 09:52

It's not even as high as 35% fat once you factor in people who weren't registered to vote, those who are now old enough to vote and those who have since died.

OP posts:
NoSleepTil2030 · 08/10/2018 09:55

It's not even as high as 35% fat once you factor in people who weren't registered to vote, those who are now old enough to vote and those who have since died.

True. So why TF are the government still pursuing this? Is it because they're just going to get even richer in comparison to the rest of us? It's insane.

Fatasfook · 08/10/2018 09:57

I think that’s exactly it nosleep

The government care not a fuck about the people

Original poster
Bearbehind · 08/10/2018 10:00

TM fucked it up from the beginning with her 'red lines' which she had no consensus for. The mess now is a direct result of that arrogance.

OP posts:
KennDodd · 08/10/2018 10:07

Civil unrest unlikely

I don't know about civil unrest but if Brexit isn't delivered, even if that is as a result of a second vote overturning the first, all the far right racist groups will be straight out on the street.

On a second note. If we did have a second vote, and that did produce a Remain win, I don't see how that would be undemocratic. Would Leavers then argue that Remain is NOT the will of the people?

KennDodd · 08/10/2018 10:11

@Bearbehind

Yes she boxed herself (and us) in with her stupid red lines and now has nowhere to go.

I think the only workable way to do Brexit would be the softest possible. This wouldn't have to be forever, but if we had this for five years, see where we are, move to the next step (if the public wanted) after giving ourselves time for the infrastructure and technology to be developed.

GreyCloudsToday · 08/10/2018 10:14

Recession, brain drain, small companies suffering

Radical shrinking of the state and even more public services cut

Worsening of the current crises in NHS staffing and social care

The return of cheap crappy goods on the market as we lose standards

No meaningful action on climate change, the greatest threat to our country

Buteo · 08/10/2018 10:18

35% of the population voted for Brexit.

It was 37% of the electorate - about 26% of the population - in 2016.

beenandgoneandbackagain · 08/10/2018 10:20

Immediate/six month effect:
Price rises - inflation creeping towards double figures
More expensive holidays - for those that will be able to afford them
Some food shortages
Interest rate rises

Longer term effect:
Higher unemployment
Less industry
Less public money - a combination of loss of tax revenue and loss of ERDF

And both sides will be very, very, very angry.

The Leavers because their post-EU paradise will turn out to be a myth and they will be looking for someone to blame, probably aided by the media/Government who will also be looking for a scapegoat to divert civil unrest.

The Remainers because it's a slow car crash that none of them voted for.

WhatchaMaCalllit · 08/10/2018 10:29

I have two genuine questions.

Q1 - When the vote to leave the EU was being put to the population, did you honestly have any clue about any of the stuff that has been mentioned in this thread about production, borders, industry, shortage of staff before you went to the polling station to cast your vote? Did you have enough information before you cast your vote to make an informed decision or did you just want to give two fingers to the EU and all that it stood for?

Q2 - The voters in Scotland voted to stay in the EU as did the people of Northern Ireland. Why are they being dragged through this leave process when they voted to stay in the EU?

I have a bit of a hypothetical situation - what will happen if the UK wakes up and realises that they have made a monumental cockup of their economy by progressing with this? Will they re-apply to re-join the EU? Will the EU follow process as it does with new applicants and make the UK give up the pound and take on the euro as a result?