Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Thank you for the new thread, and as ever, the gang for keeping us updated. It is very much appreciated.

Thank you, checking in 🫡

🇺🇦

Thanks for the new thread!

Belated points about Erdogan and Assad after a question in the last thread.

I lost the will to keep up with developments in Syria much, especially after the war in Ukraine and Russia. Some historical, religious and cultural thoughts.

Edogan has Ottoman dreams. Syria is lost territory. Urban areas (especially) throughout the former empire have Turkish speaking communities that are often called Turcoman, Turkmen or something similar (not to be confused with central Asian Turkmen who speak a Turkic language). To simplify, these are the descendants ‘Turks left behind’ as the Ottomans collapsed. Syrian Turkmen are concentrated in Aleppo province. Ergogan can both emotionally and geopolitically care about them.

Suleyman Shah. The grandfather of the first Sultan is buried in Syria, In 2015 to protect his grave in the strong ISIS era Ergogan sent troops in to relocate the grave and the Turkish troops already there under Article 9 of the Treaty of Ankara/Angora of 1921. Did they bring the remains back to Turkey? Of course not, the current temporary site is 200m inside Syria.

Heresy. Erdogan is Sunni (Naqshbandi Sufi). Assad is Alawite. He reigned over a mostly Sunni Country.

Turkey enters Syria to remove precious Suleyman Shah tomb - BBC News

Franco-TurkishPact1921.pdf

The 'secretive sect' in charge of Syria - BBC News

Thanks for the new thread. How sad that we need it though.

Thanks for the new thread.
Slava Ukraini

New York reporting in.

Thanks as always for the new thread and regular updates

Checking in 🇺🇦.

Thanks for the new thread @MagicFox !

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia's losses may begin to outpace enlistment rates, media's analysis says (kyivindependent.com/russias-losses-may-now-outpace-enlistment-rates-medias-analysis-says/).
Based on the conclusions from expenditures for sign-on bonuses and earlier research, Meduza estimates that the Russian military signed between 500 and 600 new contracts per day in the third quarter of 2024.
This would be less or barely enough to cover Russia's irreversible battlefield losses, estimated by Meduza at 600-750 per day, including 200-250 fatalities.

⚡️ Russia increasing presence, provocations in Baltic Sea, German minister says. (kyivindependent.com/russia-increasing-presence-provocations-in-baltic-sea-pistorius-says/)
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said on Dec. 5 that Russia has significantly increased its naval and civilian presence in the Baltic Sea, highlighting its strategic importance for Moscow.

⚡️ Russia’s foreign currency reserves fall to lowest levels since 2008 (kyivindependent.com/russias-foreign-currency-reserves-fell-to-lowest-since-2008-amid-mounting-deficits/) amid mounting deficits.
To address its budget shortfall, Russia has begun selling off gold reserves from the National Welfare Fund.

⚡️ EU prepared to step in if Trump withdraws from $50 billion Ukraine loan, official says. (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-prepared-to-step-in-if-us-withdraws-from-50-billion-ukraine-loan/)

⚡️ Ukraine sees no signs Russia is ready for peace talks, Zelensky's top aide says (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sees-no-signs-russia-is-ready-for-peace-talks-yermak-says/).

⚡️ 'A more dangerous Russia' — UK armed forces chief issues stark 'third nuclear age (kyivindependent.com/a-more-dangerous-russia-uk-armed-forces-chief-issues-stark-third-nuclear-age-warning/)' warning.
The world faces the dawn of a "third nuclear age," the head of the U.K.'s armed forces Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said on Dec. 4.

On a forgotten part of the front line, Russian forces mass for assault (kyivindependent.com/on-a-forgotten-part-of-the-front-line-russian-forces-try-to-secure-footholds-on-dnipro-islands/) on Dnipro islands
Ukrainian and Russian forces are locked in an ongoing fight over a series of small islands in the Dnipro River, control of which would allow Moscow's forces to intensify attacks on the embattled city of Kherson in southern Ukraine.

⚡️White House planning new weapons, sanctions package (kyivindependent.com/white-house-planning-new-weapons-sanctions-package-in-last-minute-effort-to-aid-ukraine-sullivan-says/) in last-minute effort to aid Ukraine, Sullivan says.
Washington will send Kyiv hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds, thousands of rockets, and hundreds of armored vehicles before mid-January. The U.S. also offered to train soldiers at sites beyond Ukrainian territory.

⚡️Russia illegally drafted (kyivindependent.com/russia-illegally-drafted-5-500-residents-of-occupied-crimea-in-2024-kyiv-says/) 5,500 residents of occupied Crimea in 2024, Kyiv says.

⚡️Russia using more glide bombs as artillery advantage slips (kyivindependent.com/russia-losing-artillery-advantage-in-its-war-against-ukraine/), Western officials say.
Russia's artillery advantage against Ukraine is diminishing, dropping to 1.5 rounds for each Ukrainian shell, Sky News reported on Dec. 5, citing unnamed Western officials.
Previously, Russian shells outnumbered Ukrainian ammunition by a minimum ratio of five to one.

⚡️Ukrainian forces to receive (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-to-receive-30-000-deepstrike-drones-in-2025-as-part-of-zelenskys-resilience-plan-minister-says/) 30,000 DeepStrike drones in 2025 as part of Zelensky's resilience plan, minister says.
The new generation of DeepStrike drones can "operate autonomously over long distances, hitting targets with high accuracy," according to Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

⚡️Ukrainian forces regain control (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-regain-control-of-novyi-komar-village-in-donetsk-oblast/) of Novyi Komar village in Donetsk Oblast. Novyi Komar, a village with a pre-war population of less than 500 people, is located about 50 kilometers (31 miles) west of the Russian-occupied town of Vuhledar

⚡️ Russia's fall offensive cost more than 50 soldiers (kyivindependent.com/fall-offensive-costs-russia-over-50-soldiers-per-square-kilometer-isw-says/) per square kilometer, ISW says.

⚡️ Ukrainian intelligence hackers disrupt Russia's Gazprombank, source says. (https://kyivindependent.com/hur-gazprombank-cyberattack/)

⚡️Ukrainian partisans sabotage (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-partisans-sabotage-railway-line-linking-moscow-to-kursk-oblast-group-claims/) railway line linking Moscow to Kursk Oblast, group claims.

⚡️Putin changes Russian gas payment laws (kyivindependent.com/putin-lets-foreigners-buy-russian-gas-on-payments-for-russian-gas-after-us-sanctions-on-gazprombank/) after US sanctions Gazprombank.
According to Putin's new law, gas purchases are no longer tied to Gazprombank and can be settled by offsetting mutual debts. The U.S. sanctioned Gazprombank on Nov. 21.

⚡️EU announces 25 million euros in funding (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-announces-funding-for-ukrainian-ngos-civil-society/) for Ukrainian NGOs, civil society.

⚡️ At least 6 Ukrainian mayors (kyivindependent.com/at-least-six-ukrainian-mayors-held-captive-by-russia-zelensky-says/) held captive by Russia, Zelensky says.

⚡️Coffin prices in Russia have soared (kyivindependent.com/coffin-prices-in-russia-have-soared-by-74-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion-media-reports/) by 74% since start of full-scale invasion, media reports.
In January 2022, a coffin in Russia cost about 4,437 rubles ($44), rising to 7,711 rubles ($76) in October 2024, according to the Moscow Times.

⚡️Owners, top managers of popular online casino in Ukraine suspected (kyivindependent.com/owners-top-managers-of-popular-online-casino-in-ukraine-suspected-of-collaborating-with-russia/) of collaborating with Russia.

3/4 million Russian casualties.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ DEC 6, 2024
■ Accumulated casualties reach 750k; 800k expected in the first week of 2025
■ APV & drone losses well above 7-day average & 2 missiles intercepted
■ Fewer strikes on both sides, unfavorable strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The political crisis in France may jeopardize Paris’ ability to continue supporting Ukraine, especially in terms of military aid, Reuters reports.
Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu highlighted that much of France’s assistance involves transferring older military equipment to Ukraine while replenishing domestic stocks with modern replacements.
“If we delay orders for new equipment, deliveries to Ukraine will inevitably slow down,” Lecornu warned.
He further noted that failing to approve the 2025 budget on time would reduce the defense budget from its target of €50 billion, potentially costing the French military €3.3 billion.

Ukraine and the European Union have launched the Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism (ULCM), designed to manage funds derived from frozen Russian assets, according to Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko.
The ULCM will provide a legal structure for utilizing and repaying the €50 billion allocated to Ukraine under the G7 initiative.

Finland Sends Winter Equipment Worth €25 Million to Ukraine's Armed Forces

People should remain patient and focus on the facts. Russian resources are not infinite, said retired American General and former NATO Commander in Europe, Ben Hodges, regarding the Russia's offensive.

Slovakia to Close Its Only Consulate in Russia by Year-End

Russia Operates on a Military Economy, Producing 1,000–1,500 Tanks Annually – German Defense Minister
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that Russia has fully transitioned to a military economy, enabling it to produce between 1,000 and 1,500 tanks annually. This figure is approximately double the combined number of tanks available to the five largest European countries.

Germany Plans Major Modernization and Expansion of TAURUS Missile Program
Two major state orders are in preparation:
Modernization of Existing Missiles
Around 600 TAURUS missiles currently in the Bundeswehr's arsenal will undergo upgrades to enhance their capabilities. These improvements include the ability to fly consistently at low altitudes and maintain functionality even if the GPS system partially fails. The service life of the missiles will also be extended from 25 years to 40–45 years.
Production of New TAURUS Neo Missiles
Germany plans to produce 600 new TAURUS Neo missiles under a separate order. These state-of-the-art weapons will feature advanced capabilities, ensuring the Bundeswehr's missile arsenal remains at the forefront of military technology.
The total cost for these initiatives is estimated at €2.1 billion, with funding expected to be included in the 2025 budget. The Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, has already requested the necessary allocations from the Bundestag committee.
With bipartisan support for strengthening Germany's military capabilities, the initiative has broad political backing. The expansion of the production facility in Bavaria, where the missiles are manufactured, is already under way.

A Czech initiative aimed at supplying drones to Ukraine has raised over €8 million, far surpassing its initial goal of €4 million.
According to one of the organizers, Jan Veverka, the campaign has already facilitated the delivery of approximately 12,000 drones to Ukraine, with an additional 3,000 prepared for shipment.

Czech Foreign Ministry spokesperson Daniel Drake used the time during Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's speech at the OSCE meeting to read a book about what Vladimir Putin’s trial for the war against Ukraine might entail.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Presidential Vote - A Referendum on Romania’s European Future
High stakes of the presidential election in Romania on Sunday, Dec. 8.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43345

Syrian rebels capture more hi-tech gear abandoned by retreating Russians.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43350

Ukrainian Intelligence's cyber unit complicates things for already-sanctioned GazpromBank.
www.kyivpost.com/post/43357

Fires and explosions at warehouses near an airfield in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod overnight, reportedly struck by drones.
Nizhny Novgorod is approximately 1800km from Ukraine.

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for December 5th, 2024
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43393

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made one of his most outrageous statements to date: ‘Russia does not want to attack anyone. It was the USA that attacked Russia through the hands of the Ukrainian regime.’

Czech Foreign Ministry spokesperson Daniel Drake used the time during Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's speech at the OSCE meeting to read a book about what Vladimir Putin’s trial for the war against Ukraine might entail.

This is so petty and I’m 100% here for it

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇦Today, it’s the Day of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Armed Forces of Ukraine is the shield that stands between freedom and tyranny, light and darkness, protecting Ukraine from the russian aggression.
Eternal glory to the fallen Heroes!

Glory to the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

🇭🇺🇸🇰 Lavrov met with Hungarian and Slovak Foreign Ministers Szijjártó and Blanár on the sidelines of the OSCE meeting in Malta.
Slovakia and Hungary are currently the only EU countries significantly aligning themselves with Russia despite its aggression against Ukraine.

UK Intelligence: Russian occupation forces in Ukraine suffered (x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1864580705948184870) record-high daily losses (killed and wounded) in November [replicating what you posted, @blueshoes ]
Russia experienced its highest casualties yet, with a total of 45,680 personnel lost.
The intelligence agency attributes this high level of losses to the intense pace of Russian operations and offensives

🇺🇸 Donald Trump selects David Sacks to lead U.S. policy on cryptocurrency and AI
Sacks will play a pivotal role in ensuring that the U.S. becomes a global leader in these industries, which Trump considers critical for maintaining the nation’s competitiveness.

Air defense forces shot down 32 enemy UAVs out of 53
Another 16 drones were lost locationally, and the remaining two flew away in the direction of Belarus.

It's Maryinka in the Donetsk oblast. Before the full-scale invasion, Maryinka was home to 10,000 people. Now there are none left.

Thanks for filling up the old one @DucklingSwimmingInstructress!

Hah, love that pettiness!!

Checking into the new thread. Its Finnish Independence Day today, celebrating our independence from Russia which feels extra good to celebrate these days.

Slava Ukraini.

Thank you all for sharing your knowledge and updates. I really wish there was a ‘like’ button as well as ‘thanks’.

The reports of Gerasimov calling his US counterpart as part of an effort to de-escalate tensions between the US and Russia are interesting and somewhat undermine Putin’s tough man rhetoric. I would imagine there is some concern about Trump’s unpredictable nature.

Oh Happy Independence Day, @Natsku ! 🇫🇮

congratualtions @Natsku !

@MMBaranova Thank you.

My partner mentioned as well that Assad stopped a huge oil pipeline that would have gone through to the EU and massively benefited Turkey, which really got up Erdogan's nose. Assad was highly likely influenced by Russia, which could explain why Turkey really isn't bowing down completely to its ferocious neighbour.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin is continuing to suffer significant manpower losses to make tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast at the expense of Russia's ongoing war effort and the medium-term viability of the Russian economy.
• Russia's constrained labor pool is likely unable to sustain this increased casualty rate in the medium-term, and continued Western military support for Ukraine remains vital to Ukraine's ability to inflict losses at this rate.
• Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov undermined the Kremlin's information operation to portray Russia's November 21 Oreshnik ballistic missile strike against Ukraine as a defensive response to the US permitting Ukraine to conduct strikes in Russia with US-provided ATACMS missiles.
• Russian-North Korean military cooperation will likely continue to intensify in the coming months following the formal commencement of their comprehensive strategic partnership agreement on December 4.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov continues to publicly position himself as a defender of migrants and Russian ethnic minorities in opposition to other senior Russian security officials, suggesting that senior Russian officials may be increasingly divided over Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to promote an inclusive Russian civic nationalism that ensures interethnic and interreligious harmony in Russia.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk and northern Kharkiv oblasts, and Russian forces advanced in the Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar directions.
• Russian forces are reportedly increasingly recruiting women for combat and logistics functions.