Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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fog of war warning
Report of Syrian military officers removing uniforms in Damascus after being told the regime has fallen and that a private plane has left Damascus airport. The plane could be any one of the elite but the super obvious suggestion is that it is Assad. I think he'd leave more discreetly, but anyway, one report that the regime has fallen. Treat with caution.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwy8xzxe0w7t?post=asset%3A5870a4bc-c678-4038-a2a1-91e219f20e4c#post

End of Assad regime it seems. The Syrian PM has "extended a hand" towards the opposition. The (translated) tone seems very cooperative and says HTS have also extended a hand. I think he is basically acknowledging it's over whilst trying to sound politic and avoid saying the word "defeat".

We will have to wait and see what comes next. Can but pray that people are tired of conflict and power struggles and would rather rebuild and flourish.

Thanks for the new thread, following 🇺🇦

There's a Syrian woman speaking on the World Service right now who seems to be quite overwhelmed and hysterical (sorry to use this word but she really is) with happiness.
And yet the signs for how it's going to go are not good. That's right isn't it?
Of course seeing the back of Assad is good.
I worry for the next bit.
She's now denying that the next lot had any connections to Al-Qaeda.

@heldinadream the signs are unclear. Strongmen and fighters have become politicians in the past so it is possible. Though recent history shows that many who have very strong ideologies cling to them so, yes, Syrians may be subject to interpretations of Islam that many Muslims would not recognise as faithful. Alternatively, there is the possibility of fighting and power grabs so that can lead to authoritarian leaders. It's all a bit up in the air. HTS and the PM are certainly trying to convey an image of tolerance and cooperation. For a start, the rebels appeared on TV in civilian clothing.

Any thoughts from posters about what this means for or indicates about Russia? They basically made minimal effort. Same with Hezbollah and Iran.

I truly hope this plays out in a way that benefits the Syrian people, it’s a wonderful country with some of the loveliest people I’ve ever met and I would absolutely love to be able to visit again in my lifetime.

My own thought is that they're going to have to start all over again to get a base in the Med now. That there's going to sadly be rather more planes and military hardware to attack Ukraine.

Interested to see how Iran handles this, given how much support they've given Russia.

A list of Russian, Iranian and Syrian regime equipment lost in Syria as of yesterday (so, already out of date)

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2024/12/a-3-day-smo-done-right-2024-syrian.html

It's not small.

"the amount of equipment and munitions captured from the regime forces during this rout from Aleppo and Idlib governorates has been unprecedented. And it isnt just quantity of weapons - rebel captures include a whole collection of powerful and complex weapons like fighter jets (even if only some of the captured ones are likely operational), long range MRLS, and SAM systems"

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️BREAKING: Syrian rebels announce fall (kyivindependent.com/breaking-syrian-rebels-announce-fall-of-assad-regime/)of Russian-backed Assad regime.
"The tyrant Bashar al-Assad has fled. We declare the city of Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad," rebel leaders claimed on Dec. 8.

⚡️ Situation in Zaporizhzhia Oblast 'difficult,' but 'predicted,' (kyivindependent.com/situation-in-zaporizhzhia-difficult-but-predicted-freedom-of-russia-legion-spokeperson-says/) Freedom of Russia Legion spokesperson says.
The comment comes after a series of warnings about Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which is becoming an increasingly active part of the frontline.

⚡️Zelensky meets (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-georgian-president-in-paris/) with Georgian President Zourabichvili, urges Georgians to 'not let government surrender country to Putin.'

⚡️US announces (kyivindependent.com/us-preparing-988-million-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-reuters-reports/) $988 million military aid package for Ukraine.
The United States will deliver a $988 million military package to Ukraine, the Pentagon announced on Dec. 7.
The aid package includes ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), as well as new drone deliveries.

⚡️Syrian government forces withdraw from Homs (kyivindependent.com/syrian-government-forces-withdraw-from-homs-cutting-assad-off-from-key-russian-military-base/), cutting Assad off from key Russian military base.

⚡️Russia claims control (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-control-of-berestky-village-in-donetsk-oblast/) of village in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine has not confirmed capture.

⚡️28 drones intercepted (kyivindependent.com/24-drones-intercepted-46-lost-in-russian-overnight-attack-air-force-says/), 46 lost in Russia's overnight attack on Ukraine, Air Force reports.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
⚡️ WAR IN

• DEC 8, 2024

■ Combat engagements at 7-day average, casualties below it ■ Equipment losses also below average but APV losses well above it ■ Dimished 🇷🇺 shelling & MLRS strikes, no air strikes reported

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali has declared his willingness to cooperate with any leadership chosen by the Syrian people, signaling a potential shift in the country’s political landscape.

Trump called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and negotiations.

Zelenskyy, Trump, and Macron Attend Notre Dame Cathedral Opening

Zelenskyy on Meeting with Trump and Macron: Productive and Resolute

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a “good and deep conversation” with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer during their meeting in Paris.

EU Needs 'Big Bang' in Defense Policy to Counter Russia, Says Commissioner Kubilius
European Commissioner for Defense Andrius Kubilius has urged a dramatic shift in Europe’s defense strategy to address potential threats from Russia by 2030.

SpaceX has signed a contract with the Pentagon to enhance Ukraine’s access to a more secure version of the Starlink satellite network, according to Bloomberg.
Under the agreement, 2,500 existing Starlink terminals in Ukraine will gain access to Starshield, an encrypted signal designed to resist hacking and jamming. Previously, only 500 terminals in Ukraine had access to this advanced version.
This brings the total to 3,000 Starlink terminals in Ukraine serviced under two Starshield contracts, with service provision planned until 2025.

Sanctions Impact Russian Strike Drones, Causing Technical Failures — The Washington Post
Western sanctions are affecting the performance of Russian strike drones, leading to technical failures in the Iranian-made Shahed-136 UAVs, which Russia assembles and rebrands as "Geran-2," according to The Washington Post.
Sources reported that these issues, observed this year, include drones losing control during sharp turns. Some crash outright, while others stabilize but become easy targets for Ukrainian air defenses.
Experts at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) attribute the problem to the replacement of servo motors—essential components for regulating a drone's movements—with lower-quality alternatives. The change was likely driven by sanctions limiting Russia's access to advanced components.

Russian Propagandist Sentenced to Two Years in Latvia
Valentin Rozhentsov, editor-in-chief of the Russian propaganda portal "Sputnik Latvia," has been sentenced to two years in prison, according to Delfi.
A Latvian court found Rozhentsov guilty of violating EU sanctions by signing contracts with Russia Today, a media holding led by sanctioned propagandist Dmitry Kiselyov. The court determined that these activities contributed to creating a Russian propaganda space in Latvia.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

In another social media statement from US President-elect Trump, he makes the case that Russia is weak because of the invasion of Ukraine and it's own economy.
Also stating, likely according to US intelligence, that Russia has lost 600,000 soldiers and Ukraine 400,000.
Additionally, Trump promotes the idea of a cease-fire.
This news is being taken with skepticism in Kyiv, being that traditionally, Russia has used cease-fires as opportunity to re-arm, trying again with larger forces. [400,000 in a defensive war?]

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇩🇪 Scholz after talks with Trump: We can develop (www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/12/7/7488118/) a strategy for Ukraine

Ukrainian warriors destroyed a russian Tor-M2 air defense system in the Zaporizhzhia direction

What 1000 “Wild Hornets“ drones looks like

Trump saying there have been 400,000 Ukrainian casualties seems extremely high.

We’ve no way of really knowing (TBH we have to accept the same applies to the Russian figures).

If the 400k includes casualties in the traditional sense - i.e. not just KIA but the wounded and other individuals no longer combat effective or not available for whatever reason then given we are through a thousand days of this conflict it sadly might be somewhere close to the truth.

Really hope so too

For those interested today’s emergency episode of In Moscow’s Shadow is about what the fall of Syria means for Russia. Not fully listened yet but it’s setting up to be excellent.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-7-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces have resumed their offensive operations directly aimed at seizing Pokrovsk through a turning maneuver from the south after successfully widening their salient south and southeast of the town.
• The Russian military command likely assesses that they have allocated sufficient manpower and materiel to the efforts to seize Kurakhove and seize or bypass Velyka Novosilka and level the frontline in western Donetsk Oblast in the coming weeks.
• Russian forces are likely attempting to flank Pokrovsk from the west and force Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to minimize Russia's need to conduct frontal assaults on the towns’ eastern and southern approaches.
• The Russian military command will likely continue to trade Russian materiel and manpower for tactical territorial gains at an unsustainable rate during their offensive operations to seize Pokrovsk into 2025.
• Ukrainian forces continue to use drone strikes to contest Russia's presence in the northwestern Black Sea, including near gas extraction platforms.
• Ukrainian forces will reportedly receive increased access to Starshield, a more secure satellite network for Starlink terminals, which may give Ukrainian forces an advantage in the technological innovation arms race in which Ukrainian and Russian forces are currently engaged.
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor appears to be testing the Russian sovereign internet in Russian regions populated by ethnic minorities.
• Roskomnadzor indicated that it may intend to force Russians to migrate their websites from Western hosting providers to Russian hosting providers likely to better enforce Russian censorship laws.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and reportedly advanced near Velyka Novosilka while Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to forcibly impress migrants into signing military service contracts with the Ministry of Defense (MoD) as part of ongoing cryptomobilization efforts.

Iran and Russia’s language is telling, essentially saying that they’ll work with whatever replaces Assad and that the future of Syria rests with the Syrian people. It speaks to their lack of ability or inclination to intervene in support of Assad. Mark G indicated that Russia will be keen to hold onto its naval bases in Syria as it enables its influence in Africa, his view is that maintaining a naval presence in the Mediterranean is a bit of a red herring.

He also makes clear that Assad is no great friend to Putin or Russia, it’s been largely a relationship of convenience which obviously is no longer convenient.

Trump having said it means that the chance it is correct is somewhere close to zero, I'd suggest.

Fair point, but he is receiving national security briefings now.

That never stopped him, erm, massaging the truth before, as far as we heard.

Also he has form for simply misreading things, or getting them wrong because he wasn't paying attention.

Zelensky: Since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers killed in battle and provided assistance to 370,000 wounded. Around 50% of wounded soldiers return to duty. Russian casualties exceed 750,000, including 198,000 killed and over 550,000 wounded.

https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lcs44dsxfk2g

So in terms of figures, it seems Trump is right. But many more Russian wounded either eventually die or become seriously disabled than Ukrainian, it's been fairly reliably said elsewhere.

Hving said that some of the Ukrainian medical facilities were very ...Soviet. But they seem to have been upgraded in the last three years.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

Zelensky: Since the start of the full-scale war, Ukraine has lost 43,000 soldiers killed in battle and provided assistance to 370,000 wounded

Exactly, as I mentioned upthread casualties does not equal fatalities.

The 400k casualty figure that Trump came up, once you factor in a bit of a politician induced rounding error might well be at the top of the credible range but it isn’t completely and utterly out of the question.

FWIW Here’s a link to a very early 2023 paper on the whole issue of this conflict, casualties and bias, at that point the authors estimated (methodology they’ve used is interesting) that Ukrainian fatalities as just over 17,000, casualties 75,000.

theloop.ecpr.eu/estimating-troop-losses-on-both-sides-in-the-russia-ukraine-war/

We’re almost two years on from when that article was written, the tempo of the conflict has ebbed and flowed so who knows if the rate has increased since that research was done or not?