Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

Bashar al-Assad’s escape was accompanied by reports of his plane disappearing from radar, allegedly due to being shot down or a crash. However, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, this narrative is Russian disinformation.

This rumour was being fueled in parts on SM and some of the MSM yesterday where lots of screen snap shots from sources such as Flightradar were doing the rounds yesterday, apparently showing aircraft disappearing from radar.

What keeps being missed (perhaps deliberately) or misunderstood is that Flightradar and the other ADS trackers are not a primary source and certainly they don’t show the full, filtered, subjected to checks and balances radar picture that Air Traffic Control and others see.

The internet sites can be subject to interference and hacking - it’s fairly easy with the know how to generate a phantom track - we saw that a few times in the early days of this conflict with some bizarre tracks supposedly drawn over Ukraine.

Blimey, it's not "people we don't like"; it's ISIS, the public beheading, medieval fanatics who make the Saudis look like Quakers. You know, the ones who enslaved the Yazidi women and killed their men because they aren't mentioned in the Quran.

U.S. Scrambles to Shape Post-Assad Syria but Has to Overcome Years of Disengagement If Syria falls under control of Islamist militants it could bring further disorder to an inflamed region

While U.S. officials are seeking to fashion a strategy to respond to Assad’s unanticipated downfall, they have moved quickly to prevent Islamic State and other groups from exploiting a potential security vacuum in Syria.

U.S. B-52 bombers, F-15E fighters and A-10 attack aircraft carried out dozens of airstrikes against Islamic State camps and operatives in central Syria on Sunday. In all, 140 munitions were dropped on more than 75 targets, the senior administration official said.

Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the head of the U.S. Central Command, followed that action with a pointed warning to Syrian groups that they should avoid helping Islamic State, formerly known as ISIS, as the country struggles to form a new government after Assad’s departure.

“There should be no doubt—we will not allow ISIS to reconstitute and take advantage of the current situation in Syria,” Kurilla said in a statement. “All organizations in Syria should know that we will hold them accountable if they join with or support ISIS in any way.”

Another U.S. concern is some 9,000 ISIS fighters held in a network of detention centers in northeast Syria and tens of thousands of people confined at the nearby Al-Hol refugee camp. The detainees and refugees are being guarded by the SDF, an arrangement that is likely to remain in place as long as some U.S. forces remain.

Of course, thank you. It is rather easy to get carried away.

Insofar as the outcome for Russia in Syria might have an effect on how Putin prosecutes the war against Ukraine, I think Syria has relevance here. A lot of things can clearly go over to that other Syria thread.

The troops of the new Syrian rulers didn't come up against Russian opposition in their final dash for Damascus. When Assad seemed to have some sort of army there was the deployment of Russian air power. In fact the then opposition faced nothing on the road to Damascus so far as I can see beyond SAA troops melting away and the need for some caution. There was an image of a destroyed Russian air defence system that scrolled by (with the tag that the Russians destroyed it themselves).

The airfield and port facility are clearly defendable to some extent against the first sets of guys in cars with automatic weapons. Some Russian materiel seems to have been removed from them, but as Peskov said today 'it is too early to determine the future of Russia’s military bases in Khmeimim and Tartus, Syria'. Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stressed that discussions about the bases will depend on the new leaders of Syria.

Source: RT late morning. Of course everything might have changed since then.

Kremlin comments on fate of Russian military bases in Syria — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union

My thought is that the more 'Syria' seems like a debacle for Putin, the more he presses on in Ukraine. However, his aim of getting a Russia-aligned Ukraine has persisted since the first coup de main attempt via Hostomel with the (un)coordinated drives towards Kyiv by road (that mired down and ran out of gas) that hoped to put someone like Yuriy Boyko in power. It has never substantially changed.

[Edited a couple of words.]

My thought is that the more 'Syria' seems like a debacle for Putin, the more he presses on in Ukraine. However, his aim of getting a Russia-aligned Ukraine has persisted since the first coup de main attempt via Hostomel with the (un)coordinated drives towards Kyiv by road (that mired down and ran out of gas) that hoped to put someone like Yuriy Boyko in power has never substantially changed.

I agree; that's still Putin's goal. He wants a puppet government, which is why he tried the decapitation strike via his airborne troops. I think the longer-term negative consequence for Russia is that by abandoning Assad, he's shown that he can't be relied upon to support those who support him

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Zelensky plans to call Biden to discuss NATO invitation (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-plans-to-discuss-nato-invitation-with-biden-president-said/) for Ukraine.

⚡️ China curbs sale of drone parts to US, Europe, hindering Ukraine’s war effort, Bloomberg reports. (kyivindependent.com/china-curbs-sale-of-drone-parts-to-us-europe/)
Chinese manufacturers began limiting their sales of vital drone components to their U.S. and European customers, preluding a broader ban on exports by officials, Bloomberg wrote, citing undisclosed sources on Dec. 9.

⚡️Russia seeks Turkey’s help to withdraw troops (kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-seeks-turkeys-help-to-withdraw-troops-from-syria-media-says/) from Syria, CNN Turk reports.
According to the outlet’s correspondent in Ankara, Russia has proposed relocating its forces to Turkish-controlled areas of Syria before transporting them to Russia by air.

⚡️Ukraine assembling coalition for united stance on ending war (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-assembling-coalition-for-united-stance-on-ending-war-presidential-office-says/), President's Office reports.

⚡️US says it's ready to train, arm new soldiers (kyivindependent.com/us-says-its-ready-to-train-arm-new-soldiers-if-ukraine-changes-conscription-policy/) if Ukraine changes conscription policy.

⚡️Ukraine won't trade young soldiers' lives (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wont-trade-young-peoples-lives-for-better-weapons-zelensky-says/) for better weapons, Zelensky says.
"The priority should be providing missiles and lowering Russia's military potential, not Ukraine's draft age. The goal should be to preserve as many lives as possible, not to preserve weapons in storage," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 9.

⚡️Russia’s defense spending surges to record levels (kyivindependent.com/russias-defense-spending-surges-to-record-levels-media-reports/), media reports.
Russia’s spending on “national defense” reached an unprecedented $43 billion in the third quarter of 2024, The Moscow Times reported on Dec. 9.

⚡️ Hungary's PM Orban (kyivindependent.com/orban-meets-with-trump-musk/) meets with Trump, Musk, says 'future has begun.'

⚡️ Russian troops sabotage their boats to avoid Dnipro River crossing, Ukrainian partisans claim (kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-sabotage-their-boats-to-avoid-dnipro-crossing-ukrainian-partisans-claim/).

⚡️Ukraine approves Droid TW robotics system (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-approves-droid-tw-robotics-system-for-combat-operation/) for combat operation.

⚡️ German opposition leader proposes European contact group to unify Ukraine peace strategy. (https://kyivindependent.com/merz-european-contact-group/)

⚡️ Russia claims bodies of Il-76 crash (kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-bodies-of-il-76-crash-victims-given-to-ukraine-kyiv-says-examinations-ongoing/) victims given to Ukraine, Kyiv says examinations ongoing.

⚡️Transnistria declares economic emergency (kyivindependent.com/transnistria-declares-economic-emergency-over-russian-gas-supply-threat/) over Russian gas supply threat.
Leader of Moldova's Russian-occupied Transnistria region, Vadim Krasnoselsky, signed a decree on Dec. 9 introducing a 30-day economic state of emergency due to the risk of Russian gas supply disruptions, Newsmaker media reported.

⚡️Russian military suppliers exploit loophole (kyivindependent.com/russian-military-suppliers-exploit-loophole-to-source-us-microchips/) to source US microchips.
Russian distributors allegedly integrated Texas Instruments' online store into their trading platforms, enabling customers in Russia to access semiconductor inventories and prices, and place orders.

⚡️UK sanctions (kyivindependent.com/uk-sanctions-illicit-gold-trade-says-it-funds-russias-war/) illicit gold trade, says it funds Russia's war.

⚡️NATO jets intercept Russian aircraft (kyivindependent.com/netherlands-intercepts-russian-planes-over-the-baltic-sea/) over the Baltic Sea.
The F-35s, deployed under NATO’s eastern airspace monitoring mission, intercepted a Russian An-72 transport aircraft and an SU-24 reconnaissance aircraft.

The Kyiv Independent’s film about Ukrainian military medics will be screened (kyivindependent.com/the-kyiv-independents-film-about-ukrainian-military-medics-will-be-screened-in-10-european-capitals/) in 10 European capitals

⚡️5 Ukrainian children return home (kyivindependent.com/5-ukrainian-children-return-home-from-russia-russian-occupied-territories/) from Russia, Russian-occupied territories.

⚡️ Update: 8 injured (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-against-kharkiv-oblast-town/) in Russian attack on Kharkiv Oblast town.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Donetsk, Kherson oblasts kill 3, (kyivindependent.com/attacks-110/) injure 14 over past day.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson

• DEC 10, 2024

■ Engagements, casualties & equipment losses all below the 7-day average ■ Janovsky: 58 🇺🇦 added (127 🇷🇺 added yesterday), 30-day 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 ratio at 2.2x ■ 🇷🇺 air strikes stay low: 37 compared to 71 per day in 2024

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The EU Council has approved a €4.2 billion disbursement to Ukraine this month under the Ukraine Facility, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced.

Romanian Police Detain 20 Armed Pro-Russian Mercenaries in Bucharest – Agerpres
The group had booked hotels in the city center and allegedly aimed to disrupt protests against pro-Russian presidential candidate Calin Georgescu, who had won the annulled first round of the election.
Police also discovered a list of politicians and journalists the mercenaries intended to target with “intimidation operations.”

Germany and the United States are collaborating to create a single drone control program for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Rheinmetall will integrate its drones with the Auterion operating system, establishing a unified architecture for drones from various manufacturers.
Auterion CEO Lorenz Mayer emphasized that a single standard will enhance the interoperability of autonomous systems. Notably, Ukrainian drones already use the Auterion operating system.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has introduced the Droid TW 12.7 robotic complex, equipped with a Browning 12.7 mm machine gun.
Key features of the Droid TW 12.7 include:
▫️12.7 mm machine gun for high-caliber firepower.
▫️Tracked platform for navigating difficult terrains.
▫️Remote control via tablet for operator safety.
▫️Digital communication for reliable connectivity.
This advanced system enhances combat capabilities in challenging environments. https://t.me/United24media/27359

British Intelligence: Ukrainian Forces Strike Russian S-400 System in Crimea

Russia Lost at Least 543 Personnel During Syrian Campaign – BBC
Of those killed, 346 were Wagner members. Russia also lost at least 7 FSB special forces officers, including Alpha Group operatives, scouts from the 45th Airborne Special Forces Brigade, GRU soldiers, and over 20 military pilots and navigators.
The casualties included one major general, 10 colonels, 15 lieutenant colonels, 31 majors, and 61 officers ranging from lieutenant to captain. Many were elite professionals whose training cost Russia millions of dollars over years.

Syria's New Government Bans Mandatory Hijabs and Protects Media Freedom – Al Watan
Syria's new leadership has banned forcing women to wear hijabs, stating that authorities are "categorically forbidden from interfering with women's clothing or appearance, including imposing requirements for modesty."
Additionally, Syrian rebels have prohibited interference in the work of television, radio, or social media professionals.
"Personal freedom is guaranteed for all, and respect for human rights is the foundation of building a civilized state," the statement emphasized.

US Imposes Visa Restrictions on 17 Russian Officials Over Sham Elections in Ukraine

Russians Deploy Traffic Lights to Detect Ukrainian FPV Drones
Russians are installing specialized traffic lights in combat zones to indicate the presence of Ukrainian FPV drones, according to military radio technology expert Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov.
These traffic lights are mounted on poles along critical military equipment routes to alert troops in real time.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Almost 800,000 Russian soldiers are in Ukraine — Zelensky
The president noted that if Ukraine falls, Putin will return to Syria and Africa.
"We see that the Assad regime has fallen. Why? Because there are no real Russian troops there. Let's be honest."

An advocate of stronger military support for Ukraine than Chancellor Scholz will provide, German opposition leader Merz visits Kyiv with assurance that under his chancellorship, there will be Taurus missiles if needed.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43564

Russia’s Defense Ministry has confirmed that Ukraine damaged two S-400 anti-aircraft missile system in the Kursk region using five ATACMS missiles.

Zelensky and Georgian President Discuss Future Amid Ongoing Protests https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43563

Exclusive First Look: Ukraine’s Fiber-Optic Drone That Outsmarts Jamming Systems
Kyiv Post was the first to exclusively showcase the new Ukrainian drone, which operates on a fiber-optic conductor, making it invisible to radio detection and impervious to electronic warfare.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/43576

Syrian Rebel Flag Hoisted at Syrian Embassy in Moscow
The new flag was raised amidst reports that the country’s deposed president fled to Moscow.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43579

Isreal is reportedly blowing ships in Syria's Latakia port, in the vicinity of the Russian base.

Russia has launched four times more drones and missiles at Ukraine compared to last fall, — The Wall Street Journal
Over 6,000 drones and missiles have been launched in the past three months—three times more than during the summer. One of the new tactics involves using cheap decoy drones to exhaust Ukraine’s air defense systems.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Record-breaking territory occupation speed: in November 2024, Russia seized almost five times more territory than in all of 2023. This is primarily due to Ukraine's lack of resources and the use of new tactics.

None of the Ukrainian Armed Forces brigades are fully staffed, including units actively engaged in combat, according to The New York Times
Deputy Commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade Maksym Zhorin stated that the quality of personnel has significantly declined recently, as reinforcements now predominantly consist of older men and individuals with chronic illnesses.
NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko acknowledged that even the planned mobilization of 160,000 individuals will only bring brigade staffing levels to 85%.

The Mayor of Edinburgh has resigned following allegations of harassment against Ukrainian refugees.
Day allegedly sent explicit messages to Ukrainian women, asking about their sexual preferences, complimenting their appearance, suggesting they “meet for a glass of wine,” and sending kiss emojis.
Some of the Ukrainian women interviewed said that communicating with Day was unpleasant. They felt pressured due to his status and were afraid. Day has been suspended from his position pending investigation, while the opposition is calling for his resignation.

In the Romanian mountains, a Ukrainian man and his kitten were rescued
◾️Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more than 160 Ukrainian men have been rescued in Maramureș, while 16 were found dead. In May, it was reported that approximately 11,000 Ukrainian men had illegally crossed the northern Romanian border to avoid mobilization following the start of the invasion.

❗️A member of the Kerek people died in the Russian army
The Kereks are the smallest ethnic group in the Russian Federation. According to the 2010 All-Russian census, they numbered only 4 people.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin continues to cautiously signal that it can ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria in the short-term but notably has expressed uncertainty about the long-term future of the military bases against the backdrop of the volatile and rapidly evolving political situation in Syria.
• Russia has removed some vessels from the Port of Tartus to a nearby area offshore.
• The Syrian Embassy in Moscow confirmed to Kremlin newswire TASS on December 9 that former Syrian President Bashar al Assad is in Moscow.
• Russia continues to face staggering costs required to maintain its war effort against Ukraine, with mounting economic strain, labor shortages, and systemic corruption threatening the sustainability of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov amid ongoing Kremlin efforts to shift blame for Russia's inadequate response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast onto local government officials and away from the military.
• The Russian government claimed to have returned the bodies of deceased Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) who were allegedly killed in the January 24 Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crash in Belgorod Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to highlight Russian officials who sponsor Russian volunteer units in Ukraine and the "Time of Heroes program," which places veterans of the war in Ukraine in leadership positions within the Russian federal and regional governments.

Syria's New Government Bans Mandatory Hijabs and Protects Media Freedom

A good start, I'm almost afraid to hope.
If memory serves me right though the resurgent Taliban claimed they were going to allow education for females in Afghanistan when they came back to power - now women aren't allowed to sing or speak in public and all forms of education, including midwifery training, are closed to them so I'm not celebrating just yet.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine peace talks (kyivindependent.com/polish-pm-signals-potential-ukraine-peace-talks-this-winter/) could start this winter, Tusk says.

⚡️Russian troops evacuate (kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-evacuate-syria-amid-base-siege-hur-says/) from Syria amid base siege, military intelligence says.
Russia is evacuating its forces from Syria as one of its military bases comes under siege, Kyiv’s military intelligence agency (HUR) reported on Dec. 10.

⚡️Russia could swap North Korean (kyivindependent.com/russia-could-swap-north-korean-soldiers-for-su-27s-and-mig-29s-us-admiral-says/) soldiers for Su-27s and MiG-29s, US officer says.
Russia may have transferred MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets to North Korea in exchange for North Korean soldiers, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said on Dec. 8, according to Aviation Week Network.

⚡️US announces (kyivindependent.com/us-announces-20-billion-loan-for-ukraine-as-part-of-g7-initiative/) $20 billion loan for Ukraine as part of G7 initiative.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced on Dec. 10 that it will provide $20 billion in loan assistance to Ukraine, marking its contribution to a broader $50 billion initiative supported by G7 countries.

⚡️ Chinese exports to Russia decrease (kyivindependent.com/china-russia-exports/) for first time in 4 months, Reuters reports.
China's yuan-denominated exports to Russia dropped sharply in November when compared to the 24% growth the previous month, Reuters reported on Dec. 10, citing Chinese customs data.

⚡️Russian drone hits (kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-hits-iaea-service-vehicle-near-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant/) IAEA service vehicle near Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The service vehicle was going to the ZNPP for a personnel rotation.

⚡️Russia reduces barge barriers (kyivindependent.com/russia-reduces-barge-barriers-protecting-crimean-bridge-by-half-in-a-month/) protecting Crimean Bridge by half in a month.

⚡️Hungary vows (kyivindependent.com/hungary-vows-to-block-potential-eu-sanctions-on-georgia-over-protest-crackdowns/) to block potential EU sanctions on Georgia over protest crackdowns.

⚡️US announces $266 million in sales to bolster (kyivindependent.com/us-announces-266-million-in-sales-to-bolster-ukraines-f-16-fighter-jets/) Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jets.

Successful tests of a new Ukrainian missile, dubbed Ruta (Rue), are underway, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Dec. 10. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-announces-successful-tests-of-new-ukrainian-missile-ruta/

⚡️ Ukrainian drones reportedly hit oil facility (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-missile-attack-damaged-critical-infrastructure-in-russias-rostov-oblast-russian-officials-claim/) in Russia’s Bryansk.

⚡️Confusion over Russian advances (kyivindependent.com/confusion-over-russian-advances-in-sumy-region-authorities-deny-border-breach/) in Sumy Oblast, authorities deny border breach.

⚡️ Russia killed at least 109 Ukrainian POWs (kyivindependent.com/russia-killed-at-least-109-ukrainian-pows-in-2024-ombudsman-says/) in 2024, ombudsman says.

⚡️ Russia detains Russian-German citizen (kyivindependent.com/russia-detains-russian-german-citizen-over-alleged-sabotage-plot/) over alleged sabotage plot.

⚡️Russia 'prepared to consider' prisoner exchange (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-open-to-prisoner-exchange-with-us-ryabkov-says/) with US, Russian official says.

As military options dwindle, US support is key to Ukraine's peace talks (kyivindependent.com/as-military-options-dwindle-us-support-is-key-to-ukraines-peace-talks/)
“Ukraine is exhausted. Low on manpower, ammunition, and, most importantly, morale, the country is slowly reckoning with the fact that the ongoing war may be unwinnable on the battlefield — at least for now. According to a Gallup survey published on Nov. 19, 52% of Ukrainians now say they want their country to negotiate an end to the war ‘as soon as possible.’ However, the terms of such a settlement would depend on Washington as much, if not more, than on Kyiv,” write Kyiv Independent Deputy Chief Editor Oleksiy Sorokin and Gazeta Wyborcza Deputy Chief Editor Bartosz Wieliński in their op-ed.

44% of Ukrainians (kyivindependent.com/44-of-ukrainians-trust-trump-survey/) trust Trump, more than elsewhere in Europe, survey suggests.
In comparison, researchers cite a separate summer poll from the Pew Research Center that showed that among the surveyed European countries, Trump enjoyed the highest trust in Hungary: 37%.
According to the researchers, the relatively high trust in Trump can be explained by hopes for a "clearer and more decisive policy towards Ukraine from the new U.S. administration " and possibly a desire for peace in certain parts of the population.

⚡️ Politico lists Yermak, Putin (kyivindependent.com/politico-lists-yermak-putin-among-europes-most-influential-people/) among Europe's most influential people.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 8, injure 57 (kyivindependent.com/attacks-111/) over past day.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-10-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russia's force posture around Syria continues to reflect the Kremlin's current cautious and indecisive response to the fall of Bashar al Assad's regime.
• Russia intends to supply North Korea with fighter jets amid a growing military partnership between the two countries.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in Moscow on December 10 as India continues efforts to balance military technical cooperation with Russia and maintain good relations with key Western allies.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Vuhledar direction, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Kharkiv oblasts and in the Svatove, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka directions.
• The Russian government continues efforts to formalize irregular Russian military units and veterans from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics army corps (DNR and LNR ACs) and formally integrate them under the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
• Russia continues to utilize Western-produced high-tech components in Russian weapons systems despite Western sanctions against Russia and cobelligerent states.
• A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on December 9 that Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted the Russian Deputy Defense Minister, Pavel Fradkov, to the rank of Major General.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine’s NATO Membership and Security Guarantees to Be Key Topics at Contact Group Meeting
The first meeting of the new Contact Group will focus on Ukraine’s NATO membership application, security guarantees until accession, and continued military support, according to Ihor Zhovkva, deputy head of the Office of the President (OPU).

China Halts Drone Supplies, Impacting Ukraine’s War Efforts, — Bloomberg
In response, Ukraine and its partners are exploring alternatives in countries like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, as global efforts continue to reduce dependence on China.

UK and Cyprus Unite to Counter Russian Money Laundering
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides have vowed to collaborate in combating Russian money laundering aimed at evading sanctions.

Zelenskyy: Successful Missile Developments Strengthen Ukraine’s Defense
President Zelenskyy announced progress in Ukraine’s missile programs:
• The new missile Ruta is undergoing successful testing.
• The Palianytsia missile has entered mass production.
• The missile-drone Hell has completed its first combat missions effectively.
• The long-range Neptune missile will soon be deployed, posing a significant threat to enemy forces.

Why Russia Was in Syria in the First Place (https://united24media.com/world/why-was-russia-in-syria-4338)
Russia’s intervention in Syria was multifaceted and is referred to as a “testing ground” for the weapons and war tactics that they use against Ukraine today.
While both the war in Syria and Ukraine are starkly different, Russia’s war tactics mirror those it deployed in Syria

Canada’s House of Commons Approves $587 Million in Military Aid to Ukraine
Defense Minister Bill Blair stated the funds would be directed toward munitions, training, and other essential resources for Ukraine’s victory.
The budget also includes:
• 400 million Canadian dollars (about $307 million) in financial assistance to Ukraine via an IMF special account.
• 45 million Canadian dollars (about $35 million) for humanitarian demining and enhancing Ukraine’s cyber resilience.

U.S. Approves $266.4 Million Maintenance Package for Ukraine’s F-16 Operations
The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of maintenance services and equipment for Ukraine’s F-16 aircraft, valued at $266.4 million.
The package includes:
• Joint Mission Planning System (JMPS)
• AN/PYQ-10 Key Loaders (SKL)
• Modifications and technical support
• Engine Component Improvement Program (CIP)
• Spare parts for aircraft and engines
• Repair support, equipment refurbishment, consumables, and accessories
• Software, weapons software support, and related delivery services
• Training programs and equipment
• Technical and logistical support from U.S. government and contractors
This assistance will ensure operational readiness and enhance Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.

Peklo Drone Missile: A Game-Changer for Ukraine’s Defense Forces
The Peklo has a range of up to 700 km and reaches speeds of 700 km/h. Serial production is already underway. Efforts are ongoing to enhance its electronic warfare resistance, improve operational performance, and increase targeting accuracy. Additionally, new warhead types are in development to expand its range of potential targets.

▫️What We Know So Far About the ‘Ruta’ Drone (https://united24media.com/latest-news/what-we-know-so-far-about-the-ruta-drone-4368)

What the Kremlin Has Lost after Russia's Great Retreat from Syria (https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/russias-great-retreat-from-syria-what-has-the-kremlin-lost-4349)

Russian Agricultural Exports Decline Amid Rising Import Costs and Transport Challenges
Russian agricultural exports are faltering, despite Putin’s directive to increase them by 1.5 times by 2030. From January to October 2024, food and agricultural raw materials exports totaled $35.2 billion—down 2.4% compared to 2023. Meanwhile, imports grew by 4.9%, reaching $30.6 billion, according to Russia’s Federal Customs Service.
Transport Troubles via Kazakhstan
Russian importers face mounting difficulties transporting goods through Kazakhstan. These include:
• Ransom Demands: Importers report frequent requests for payments to resolve fabricated “document issues.”
• Customs Complications: Goods are increasingly subjected to stricter customs checks, especially for sanctioned or dual-use items.
• In-Transit Delays: Trucks often face harassment from individuals in uniform threatening confiscation, disrupting deliveries.
Kazakhstan remains a key transit route for sanctioned and unofficially supplied goods, but growing logistical hurdles are causing delays and higher costs.
Financial Strain on Russian Carriers
The road freight industry in Russia is suffering severe losses:
• Negative Profit Margins: Large freight transportation is operating at a negative profitability rate of 17%.
• Cost Increases: Rising expenses (up 11%), a weaker ruble, and higher borrowing costs have compounded the problem.
• Falling Demand: Carriers have been forced to cut tariffs by 12% year-on-year.
Evgeny Babayev, president of the logistics firm Iteco, warned that 30% of Russian freight companies are at risk of bankruptcy in 2025.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Pro-Russian Prime Minister of Hungary, Orban, initiated a call with Putin immediately after meeting with Trump and Musk.
The Kremlin stated that the conversation included Ukraine, with the Hungarian PM allegedly expressing interest in a “diplomatic resolution to the crisis.”

Romanian elections spark Bulgarian MPs to investigate Russian influence.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/43603

Macron may discuss the creation of a peacekeeping force of 40,000 troops during his visit to Poland on Dec. 12, which could involve EU military personnel being deployed to Ukraine — Rzeczpospolita.

In the Russian-occupied city of Yenakiieve in the Donetsk region, an emergency evacuation of residents was announced following explosions in the area.
Social media reports suggest that an ammunition depot may have been hit.

An oil depot owned by Transneft is on fire in Russia’s Bryansk after reports of numerous explosions.
Russian channels claim air defenses responded to a drone attack.

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for December 11th, 2024
www.kyivpost.com/post/43650

The bodies of two more civilians have been recovered from the rubble in Zaporizhzhia following yesterday’s Russian ballistic missile strike on a hospital and residential buildings.
The total number of victims has risen to 22, while the search and rescue operations continues.

Thousands of Syrians are returning home after the fall of the Assad regime.
Turkish media outlets have released drone footage showing significant traffic congestion on roads leading to Damascus.
Many people are abandoning their cars and continuing their journey to the capital on foot.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Zelensky’s relations with the U.S. have soured (www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/12/10/zelensky-refusal-conscript-men-washington-relationship/) following his refusal to lower the conscription age, reports The Telegraph.
The publication states that Ukraine is not considering mobilizing men starting at age 18, as the age group from 18 to 24 makes up less than 10% of Ukraine’s population.

Minister of Finance Sergii Marchenko says Ukraine is able to maintain defense without US support at least until mid-2025

🇺🇦🇸🇾Ukraine provided military assistance to Syrian opposition forces – The Washington Post (www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/12/10/ukraine-syria-russia-war/)
According to sources, Ukrainian intelligence sent about 20 experienced drone operators and approximately 150 FPV drones to the rebels’ headquarters in Idlib.
The publication notes that Ukraine’s military assistance played a modest role in the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. However, it emphasizes that this step was part of Ukraine’s broader efforts to covertly undermine Russian operations in the Middle East, Africa, and within Russia itself.

❗️DeepState reports that Russia has managed to seize a border area in Sumy Oblast near the village of Oleksandriya

Due to the Russian offensive, gas supply to Pokrovsk in the Donetsk oblast will be suspended starting December 12, according to Donetskoblgaz.
The company stated that despite ongoing shelling, specialists had been doing everything possible to ensure gas supply to the city. However, restoring the gas distribution system is now impossible due to severe pipeline damage and continuous enemy attacks.

The leader of the Belarusian opposition, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, claims that there is virtually no support in Belarus for participation in military actions against Ukraine, making such a scenario unlikely

Putin stated that the deployment of the “Oreshnik” missile system in Russia’s arsenal “minimizes the necessity of using nuclear weapons.”
The Kremlin leader claimed that Russia is “not strengthening its nuclear doctrine, but improving it.”

Ukraine has successfully brought back five children and three adults from occupied territories and Russia.
Among those who have made it home are three young men who recently turned 18, and a family of four who were persecuted by Russian authorities for their pro-Ukrainian stance.
Another young man, left without family, also managed to leave the occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast. Additionally, a 77-year-old grandmother, who was unable to evacuate on her own, has also been rescued.

Zelensky’s relations with the U.S. have soured (www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2024/12/10/zelensky-refusal-conscript-men-washington-relationship/) following his refusal to lower the conscription age, reports The Telegraph.
The publication states that Ukraine is not considering mobilizing men starting at age 18, as the age group from 18 to 24 makes up less than 10% of Ukraine’s population.

Zelinsky says that they just need more long range weapons. He does need more long range weapons, but a missile can't hold ground or fire an artillery piece. He needs more men, too, and excluding 18-24-year-olds is silly. They'd have a better chance at survival and be more effective on the battlefield than the 40-year-olds he's conscripting now. And he doesn't need all of the 18 to 24 year olds in the country. 40-50k of them, with adequate training, would make a huge difference. I can understand why the US defense establishment is deeply annoyed at this.

@MissConductUS

I gave you a quick thumbs up earlier for that…I’ve a bit more time now to emphasise that I agree entirely.

I can understand that in his heart Z he feels doesn’t want to commit the relative youngsters and doing so would no doubt be unpopular with a large chunk of the population…OTOH it’s bound to be peeing off other parts of the population and if he’s serious about holding the line at the very least I do think he needs to reconsider.

Conscription is always unpopular. It was very unpopular here during the Vietnam War, but that was not a war of national survival. Ukraine is very much engaged in a war of national survival.

I think losing the war because of a lack of military personnel would be even less popular. Those 18-14 year olds could wind up in the Russian army. Russia is reportedly conscripting Ukrainians from the occupied territories.

He's said that of the 12 (or 14) brigades they need equipped, they only have 2 1/2 equipped.

John Sweeney said that 100,000 soldiers have deserted for lack of equipment and ammunition. Shell shortage seems to be considerably improving but that's far from the only issue.

Even assuming that there's some exaggeration somewhere in there in both claims, Zelensky seems to think that there's not much point in recruiting and training people you can't give enough stuff to, and that seems a reasonable point.

Given the enormous drop in Ukrainians having children you can see why he wants to protect the youngest adults.

I don't know who's right or wrong here, but his points do seem to have some sense.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia continues to suffer record losses in December, Zelensky says. (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-losses-december/)

⚡️EU approves 15th sanction package (kyivindependent.com/eu-approves-15th-sanction-package-against-russia-targeting-shadow-fleet/) against Russia, targeting 'shadow fleet'.

⚡️Trump invites Xi (kyivindependent.com/trump-invites-xi-to-inauguration-cbs-news-reports/) to inauguration, CBS News reports.
Trump's team is also considering inviting other world leaders, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Both China and Hungary have remained Kremlin allies throughout Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

⚡️ Macron, Tusk to discuss deploying peacekeepers (kyivindependent.com/macron-tusk-to-discuss-deploying-peacekeepers-to-ukraine-bloomberg/) to Ukraine after ceasefire, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️ NATO members mull raising defense spending benchmark to 3% GDP, FT reports. (kyivindependent.com/nato-members-3-percent-spending/)

⚡️ US lawmakers ask for intelligence report on impact of cutting Ukraine aid. (kyivindependent.com/us-lawmakers-ask-for-intelligence-report-on-impact-of-cutting-ukraine-aid/)
U.S. lawmakers requested a trio of intelligence agencies to assess the risks of ending support for Ukraine and Russia winning the war, The Hill reported on Dec. 11.
Lawmakers also want to know how would Ukraine’s defeat on the battlefield embolden other actors like China, Iran, or North Korea.

⚡️Tough battles, lost positions in Pokrovsk (kyivindependent.com/tough-battles-in-pokrovsk-demand-non-standard-decisions-syrskyi-says/) demand 'non-standard decisions,' Syrskyi says.

⚡️ Russian-occupied Abkhazia left without electricity (kyivindependent.com/abkhazia-energy/) due to hydroelectric station shutdown.
Georgia's Russian-occupied region of Abkhazia lost all electricity supply due to the shutdown of the only power station supplying energy to the region, TASS reported on Dec. 11.
The region has recently faced energy shortages aggravated by a growing spat with its Russian patrons. Moscow has cut almost all funding, including money crucial for the energy sector, after Abkhazia's local council voted against a controversial investment agreement with Russia.

⚡️ Ukraine's tax hike, G7 loan enough for planned defense expenses in 2025, Finance Ministry says. (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-tax-hike-g7-loan-enough-for-planned-defense-expenses/)

Ukraine Business Roundup — Ukraine moves to replace Chinese drone parts (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-ukraine-moves-to-replace-chinese-drone-parts/)
In this week's edition of Ukraine Business Roundup: The drone supply to Ukrainian troops faces a persistent problem as imported Chinese drones often have defective parts; In October, the price of eggs skyrocketed 60% from the previous month; and more.

⚡️Russia advises its citizens to avoid travel to US (kyivindependent.com/russia-advises-its-citizens-to-avoid-travel-to-us-western-nations/), Western nations.

⚡️Biden approves new memorandum (kyivindependent.com/biden-approves-new-memorandum-on-national-security-ahead-of-trump-taking-office/) on national security ahead of Trump taking office.
The document will not be published due to the "sensitivity of some of its findings," the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity under White House ground rules, told the Associated Press.

⚡️Russia may launch new Oreshnik missile (kyivindependent.com/russia-may-launch-new-oreshnik-missile-against-ukraine-in-coming-days-us-intelligence-says/) against Ukraine in 'coming days,' US intelligence says.
Washington still sees the experimental Oreshnik missile more as "an attempt at intimidation than a game-changer on the battlefield in Ukraine," a U.S. official said.

⚡️Tsikhanouskaya says (kyivindependent.com/tsikhanouskaya-says-ukraine-maintains-relations-with-belarusian-opposition-leaders/) Ukraine maintains relations with Belarusian opposition leaders.

Austrian oil and gas company OMV has terminated its long-term gas supply contract with Russia's Gazprom Export, the OMV website reported on Dec. 11.
The contract was originally set to last until 2040. https://kyivindependent.com/austrian-omv-company-terminates-contract-with-gazprom-export/

⚡️EU to allocate (kyivindependent.com/eu-to-allocate-170-million-euros-to-six-countries-bordering-russia-and-belarus/) 170 million euros to six countries bordering Russia and Belarus to bolster their border protection efforts..

⚡️ US House passes 2025 defense budget (kyivindependent.com/us-house-passes-2025-defense-budget-without-ukraine-lend-lease-extension/) without Ukraine lend-lease extension.
The $895 billion U.S. defense budget passed by the House of Representatives did not include a provision to extend the lend-lease act for Ukraine despite the efforts of Ukrainian diplomats, Ukraine's Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, said on Dec. 12.
The U.S. passed the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act in May 2022, but it expired in September 2023 without ever being used.

⚡️ Russia has built only 7 out of 108 (kyivindependent.com/russia-airliners-bbc/) planned airliners since 2022, BBC reports. @notimagain

⚡️ Russia convinced Assad to flee Syria (kyivindependent.com/russia-pushed-assad-to-flee-syria-bloomberg/) amid rebel offensive, Bloomberg reports.
Moscow persuaded Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to flee to Russia with his family after realizing his regime was bound to lose to the opposition's rapid advance, Bloomberg reported on Dec. 11, citing its sources.

⚡️ Russian proxies sentence 9 Azovstal defenders (kyivindependent.com/russian-proxies-sentence-9-azovstal-defenders/) to 24 years, life in prison.

⚡️UPDATED: Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia kills 10, injures 22, (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-zaporizhzhia-kills-3-injures-5-destroying-hospital/) destroys clinic.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 11 (kyivindependent.com/attacks-112/) over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬

• DEC 12, 2024

■ Engagements stay high & casualties slightly <7-day avg ■ Tank, vehicle & APV losses well > avg; 2 missiles intercepted ■ Janovsky: 36 🇷🇺 22 🇺🇦 added, 2.1x ratio in last 30 days ■ 🇷🇺 air strikes stay low, improved strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Czech diplomat Petr Mareš has been elected as the OSCE’s special representative in Ukraine, tasked with preparing the country for future EU and NATO membership. The decision was made during the organization's recent foreign ministers' meeting in Malta, with 55 out of 57 member countries supporting the appointment. As expected, Russia and Belarus opposed the move, labeling it "illegal."

Macron Visits Warsaw for Talks on European Peacekeeping Mission in Ukraine

If Putin Refuses to Stop the War, Trump Will “Bomb” Russia’s Economy — The Telegraph
Ukraine is losing ground in the battlefield conflict, while Russia struggles economically. The Kremlin’s oil revenues are too low to sustain its war efforts, and no one is willing to lend Putin money.
Russia’s economy resembles Germany’s in late 1917, weakened by war and blockades. Like then, Russia faces labor shortages and logistical failures.
Putin’s position in Ukraine looks increasingly shaky, especially after the collapse of the Assad regime. His inability to protect his only Arab ally undermines his credibility in the Middle East. Turkey has taken the lead in the region, even rescuing Russian generals from tough situations. If Russia retains its base in Tartus, it will be on Turkish terms.
Trump has imposed 40 rounds of sanctions on Russia, and experts predict he’ll increase pressure. If Zelenskyy refuses peace terms, the U.S. may cut military aid to Ukraine. If Putin delays, the U.S. could escalate economic sanctions.
Russia’s National Welfare Fund is depleting rapidly. Liquid assets have dropped to $54 billion, and gold reserves have halved in 15 months. With oil prices expected to stay low — possibly dropping to $45 next year — Russia’s economic situation looks dire.
The G7’s oil sanctions are cutting Putin’s income while keeping global oil prices stable. Russia relies on a shadow fleet to sell discounted oil to India and China, losing an estimated $75 million a day.
If Saudi Arabia floods the market with cheap oil, as some predict, prices could drop below $40. This would leave Russia in a critical economic position.
The war in Ukraine may ultimately be decided in Riyadh.

The British Army has successfully tested a new laser weapon capable of destroying drones mid-flight.
The system uses an intense beam of infrared light, powered by advanced sensors and tracking systems for real-time lock-on and precise targeting. During the tests, the laser was mounted on a Wolfhound armored personnel carrier.
The trials took place at the Radnor Proving Ground in Wales, marking a significant step forward in counter-drone technology.

New Report Exposes Russian Militarization of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
Satellite intelligence from McKenzie Intelligence Services, commissioned by Greenpeace Ukraine, reveals intensified Russian military activity at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
The analysis highlights the deployment of Russian multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), including BM-30 Smerch and BM-27 Uragan, near the ZNPP. Military trenches and fortifications have also been constructed on the cooling pond’s territory. These actions pose a threat to neighboring areas, such as Nikopol and Kryvyi Rih, while preventing Ukrainian counter-battery fire due to the plant's strategic importance.
Russia’s seizure of the ZNPP in March 2022 was part of a strategy to deprive Ukraine of electricity while leveraging the plant as a military base and nuclear threat. Following the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam in June 2023, ZNPP reactors lost access to vital water supplies. International pressure forced Russia to postpone its plans to restart reactors by December 10, 2024.

Ukrainian Artillery Sets World Record with 70 km Strike
The record was set using a 155-mm "Krab" self-propelled gun equipped with a Vulcano GLR precision-guided shell. Details about the timing and specific results of the shot remain undisclosed in the report.

"Come Back Alive" Foundation Modernizes Osa-AKM Air Defense System
The Osa-AKM surface-to-air missile system has been upgraded to use R-73 air-to-air missiles, thanks to efforts by the "Come Back Alive" foundation.

I have just one other thought on conscription. The anti-conscription backlash during the Vietnam War led to the transformation of the US Army to an all-volunteer force. This required significant improvements in pay, benefits, and living conditions. People needed to see the military as a viable career option for it to work. That led to a much more professional force with higher morale.

I imagine that the Ukraine army will reorganise along those lines after peace comes ....they will be investing very heavily, once they can repair their economy.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russians continue to accumulate forces in Southern Ukraine, with likely attempt for large scale push to Ukraine's historical city of Zaporizhzhia, population 700,000.
www.kyivpost.com/post/43748

Germany will allocate over €500 million to support Ukraine’s energy sector, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced.
• €360 million will go to the Energy Support Fund,
• €100 million for restoring the energy system,
• €70 million for decentralizing Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

Kerch Bridge Targeted: Novel Ukrainian Tactics & Strategic Implications
Kyiv Post examines the Dec. 6 Ukrainian strike on the Kerch Bridge.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/43702

Despite sanctions, Russia continues to receive sniper rifles and ammunition from the EU and the US, according to an investigation by The Insider.
Thousands of rifles and millions of rounds of ammunition are still flowing into Russia from the West. Moreover, supplies have not only continued but have significantly increased.
The weapons are delivered via Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan.

Poland does not plan to send its troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping mission, even if Ukraine and Russia were to reach a peace agreement — Donald Tusk

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for December 12th, 2024
www.kyivpost.com/post/43713

Russia lost more than 500 military personnel in Syria, many from elite units.
www.kyivpost.com/post/43677