Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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Anton Gerashchenko's analysis:

Anton Gerashchenko

Syria. Turkish lessons and potential prospects according to expert Ihor Tyshkevich Turkey has emerged as the primary beneficiary of the regime change in Syria.

The current task is to stabilize the situation within the country and prevent large-scale clashes among various groups referred to as "the opposition".

The United States retains control over its zone, with no other parties challenging it. However, Turkey aims to significantly weaken Kurdish influence, including their role in forming a new government.

Iran was one of the most active participants in the conflict, supporting the war effort through its proxies, such as Hezbollah, until the very end. Simultaneously, Iran engaged in active negotiations with Turkey about Syria’s future. Notably, the Iranian Foreign Minister visited Ankara immediately after the fall of Aleppo. Arab Monarchies. Paradoxically, they are likely to strengthen their position. Opposition groups in the south connected to these monarchies, along with their allies among the Druze and Christians, "timely" initiated uprisings, which predetermined Damascus’s fall. Ultimately, troops associated with these factions were among the first to enter the capital.

Russia is losing influence but retains a chance to remain in Syria, albeit under new conditions, as one of the "second-tier" forces. Thus, the contours of a new government will largely be shaped by Ankara, with contributions from Arab monarchies and potentially Iran. Why not Russia? Because, unlike the other external forces, it placed all its bets on Assad’s inner circle. If Russian military bases in Syria are evacuated, it will complicate Russian operations in Africa but not render them impossible. If Turkey manages to establish a stable government that survives for at least a year, the consequences could be extremely significant. The main issue: gas, or more specifically, pipelines

Project one: The Arab Gas Pipeline. Initially conceived as a pipeline connecting Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Turkey, and even Israel, its first phase was completed in 2003. However, construction of the Homs branch never commenced.

Project two: The Qatar-Turkey Pipeline. This project was derailed by Assad's intransigence, as the pipeline was supposed to traverse Syrian territory. Construction never began. If a civil war between factions does not break out in Damascus, there will be an opportunity to implement both projects. The key here is the political decision of the "new government," the determination of the route with land allocation, and agreement on the presence of foreign PMCs or military units to guard the infrastructure. That is, from the moment the Qatar pipeline project begins, a year of stability from the new government is needed to ensure the necessary decisions are made. Countries in the EU will be interested in implementing such projects (the gas will flow to them). For Russia, this could be detrimental, far more painful than the potential evacuation of military bases:

Russia loses the European gas market. And the reason is not sanctions. Qatari gas (as well as Egyptian gas), delivered via pipeline systems, will simply be cheaper than Russian gas due to lower production costs.

Turkey is already becoming a regional superpower. Its strengthening in the energy sector will have consequences for Russia in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

This will lead to a weakening of Russia's position in the Arab world. It will not disappear as a partner (projects in Egypt, Algeria, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan will continue), but it will lose some "weight."

Thank you @notimagain

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress thanks for the link to Gerashchenko.

Syria is super-complicated <rubs head>

Increasing suggestions that Assad is in Moscow.

From BBC:

to Russian military bases in Syria - reportspublished at 18:31
18:31
As Kremlin sources say Syria's ex-president Bashar al-Assad is in Moscow, here's more from Russian state media.
The RIA Novosti news agency reports that the Kremlin is in contact with the leaders of the armed Syrian opposition, "who have guaranteed security to the Russian military bases and diplomatic establishments in Syria".
The agency quotes an unnamed source in the Kremlin as saying Russia has "always called for a search for a political solution in the Syrian crisis".
"We hope the Syrian dialogue will continue in the interests of the Syrian people and the development of bilateral relations between Russia and Syria," the source adds.
Earlier, Russian media agencies said that Assad and his family have been granted political asylum in Moscow.

Hm. I hope the faction leaders don't make new deals with Russia.

Politics being the art of the pragmatic, an' all

Yes, this is a concern.

Especially since Trump said the US will stay out of this.

How can they, when a thousand or so US troops are already IN this? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USinterventionintheSyriancivilwar

Maybe he's forgotten what happened in 2017. Oh, hold on: he was President then....

Realistically, it is probably already happening. There will be at least chats through informal channels going on. If Russia can keep their leases and HTS can maintain stability then this might actually free up more Russian manpower and money from not having to prop up weak Assad.

It might well be up to a point. But I also think that Syrians won't soon forget the Russian bombings of Aleppo and evacuation convoys etc.

Still, Russia will surely be working to worsen relations between the factions already, so they offer to 'help keep peace'

Looks like Biden has launched air strikes against ISIS targets in Syria

https://archive.is/g6ZPK

It's been about 24 hours and already Israel and the US have bombed people they dislike in Syria. It's not really going to add to stability is it.

From what I can gather it’s over fears of ISIS essentially filling the power vacuum or at least trying to.

Israel have also launched air strikes on Damascus, apparently to destroy chemical weapons and nuclear research facilities.

.... Couldn't Israel have at least had the decency to wait until those poor sods are out of the Slaughterhouse? The White Helmets and others are racing against the clock to access the lower levels, where the ventilation has been shut off.

I’ll hold my hands up as I’m as bad as anyone but I’m also conscious that this is the Ukraine threads and of straying too far from that. I worry it risks, as it does in the press of being forgotten for the next ‘sexier’ conflict.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov made one of his most outrageous statements to date: ‘Russia does not want to attack anyone. It was the USA that attacked Russia through the hands of the Ukrainian regime.’

That seems an interesting line to take. How is that supposed to play out with a Trump presidency? If Trump pulls support from Ukraine, then does that allow Russia to say the USA has stopped its attack via Ukraine and Russia no longer needs to ‘fight back’ (but will keep all of eastern Ukraine thanks v much)?

I do think that all this is relevant to Ukraine myself because Russia has been highly committed to Syria in the past and losing its influence there has considerable impact, both good and bad.

There may be more aircraft and hardware available to Russia now to attack Ukraine :( stuff that was stationed in Syria and removed in time.

On the other side, on political level this is a real loss of face for Russia and on another level the possibility of the Middle Eastern pipeline(s) being built towards Europe, reducing EU dependency on Russian oil, is another potential loss of strength. Turkiye may (probably? anyone knowledgeable in the ME know?) become more influential and powerful following this. It's also possible that Russia may have more problems transporting stuff from Iran, apparently.

So while the events in Syria have taken over a bit in the last days, it's useful to pay some attention to some of the implications for Russia and Ukraine.

@MissConductUS will know better than I but for context US forces have been conducting operations, including air strikes, against ISIS and aligned factions in Syria for I think over a decade (? Operation Inherent Resolve).

To some extent all we are seeing now is maybe a step up in the US campaign but also of course now the MSM have remembered that Syria still exists those air strikes suddenly make the front page, having been ignored for years.

As far as the Israeli strike goes it appears to have been as @Igotjelly says they mainly appear to have been to destroy chemical weapons and aligned facilities….I’m not sure I’d fancy any of the current local participants waltzing into those bunkers and carting off the contents.

Tass is saying this morning that Tartus has been taken but that the Russian 'base' has not been interfered with.

Syrian opposition controls city of Tartus hosting Russian base — source - World - TASS

There are videos posted of overnight celebrations in what is said to be Tartus.

There are some mentions of Russian units out in the field apparently in the east of Syria who have been in a bit of a pickle.

I’ve seen some talk elsewhere that at least some Russian units/troops in the Golan heights region chose to surrender to IDF forces rather than surrender to combatants of other parties to this conflict.

I’ll see if I can find a vaguely credible source.

There's a thread on Syria on the politics board that might be worth contributing to. I do find it very tempting to discuss it here but I agree to not wanting it to overtake the main concern of these threads. It's just so important to put all the pieces together and there are no boundaries to that!

Syria - developments | Mumsnet

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria.
• The Kremlin reportedly secured an agreement on December 8 with unspecified Syrian opposition leaders to ensure the security of Russian military bases in Syria, but the contours of this arrangement and its longevity remain unclear given the volatile and rapidly evolving political situation on the ground in Syria.
• ISW has collected strong indicators that Russia has been setting conditions to evacuate its military assets from Syria and that Russian military basing is not secure. Even if Russia maintains some or all of its bases in Syria, it is a major geopolitical loss for Moscow, as Russia’s continued basing in Syria will be at the mercy of Syrian opposition groups that the Kremlin previously used to call terrorists.
• The loss of Russian bases in Syria will have major implications for Russia’s global military footprint and ability to operate in Africa.
• Russian ultranationalist milbloggers – many of whom fought in or covered the Syrian war – are upset about the fall of the Assad regime, criticizing it as yet another failure of Russian foreign policy to exert and maintain influence in areas of strategic importance.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced on December 7 an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth $988 million.
• Russian authorities detained alleged terrorists in the Republic of Dagestan on December 7 amid growing Russian milblogger claims that the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime in Syria will foster terrorism in Russia.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and the Pokrovsk and Vuhledar directions.
• One of Russia's largest microchip manufacturers has reportedly begun bankruptcy proceedings.

United24 Media:

🔹 Syria’s Future Military Presence of Russia to Be Decided by New Government

Syrian Prime Minister Muhammad Ghazi al-Jalali stated that the question of Russia’s military presence in Syria would be addressed by the country’s incoming government. “This issue is not within my competence; it will be decided in the future by the new government,” he said.

Meanwhile, reports from OSINT observers suggest that Russia has already begun evacuating its bases in Syria, including the key Khmeimim airbase.

According to Al Arabiya TV, rebels who liberated Damascus have provided security guarantees to current ministers. Cabinet members are expected to resume work within two days to manage essential services until power is officially transferred to the new leadership.

Additionally, Iraq has fully closed the Al-Qaim border checkpoint, previously used by Syrian soldiers fleeing the conflict. The Iraqi authorities have reinforced border security with additional measures, including thermal imaging cameras, to monitor and control movements.

🔸 Kursk Region Becomes a “Graveyard” for Russian Equipment — Forbes

The Kursk region has witnessed staggering Russian losses, with a 4:1 loss ratio in favor of Ukraine, Forbes reports. In a 5-square-kilometer area alone, approximately 90 Russian vehicles were destroyed or abandoned, compared to only 20 Ukrainian losses.

This localized ratio aligns with the overall trend in the war, where Russian equipment losses are three times greater than Ukraine’s: 14,500 destroyed Russian vehicles versus 5,200 Ukrainian ones.

The report highlights that the Kremlin is pushing for gains in Kursk before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, which Moscow anticipates could mark an “unstable era” in U.S.-Ukraine relations. Putin has mobilized 60,000 Russian and North Korean troops alongside heavy weaponry for an offensive, aiming to drive Ukrainian forces out of the region by February.

However, the offensive has been disastrous for Russia. Daily casualties reportedly range from 1,200 to 2,000 soldiers killed or wounded, far exceeding monthly mobilization efforts of around 30,000 troops. This imbalance continues to strain Russia’s
military capabilities.

🔹 Foreign Minister of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha commented on the situation in Syria:

"Assad has fallen. This is how it has always been and will always be for dictators who bet on Putin. He always betrays those who rely on him. The main goal now is to restore security in Syria and effectively protect its people from violence.

All efforts must be made to stabilize the region and ensure inclusive political dialogue in Syria for the sake of effectively functioning state institutions. We express our readiness to pave the way to restoring relations in the future and reaffirm support for the Syrian people."

🔸 Zelenskyy: Ukraine Has Lost 43,000 Soldiers, Russian Losses Over 750,000

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shared an extensive update on the state of the war during a statement following meetings with global leaders, including U.S. President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron. He emphasized the sacrifices Ukraine has made, the ongoing challenges, and the need for a sustainable and just peace.

Key Points from the President’s Statement:

1. Ukrainian Losses: • Military: Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died on the battlefield. • Wounded: Medical assistance has been provided in 370,000 cases, with 50% of those wounded returning to service thanks to advanced front-line medical care.
2. Russian Losses: • Over 750,000 Russian personnel have been lost, including 198,000 killed and more than 550,000 wounded. • Recent losses have reached a ratio of 5:1 or 6:1 in favor of Ukraine.
3. Prisoners and Missing Persons: • Ukraine has successfully returned 3,935 individuals from Russian captivity since February 2022. • Thousands remain in Russian captivity, including civilians. Many have been missing since 2014.
4. Deported Children and Occupied Territories: • Russia has forcibly deported hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children, scattering them across its territory. • Millions of Ukrainians remain in occupied territories.
5. Peace and Guarantees: • Zelenskyy reiterated that a lasting peace must come with guarantees that prevent further aggression from Russia. • He criticized ceasefires without guarantees, pointing out Putin’s history of reigniting conflicts. • “Putin is obsessed with wars,” Zelenskyy stated, emphasizing the need for global unity and force to stop him.
6. Role of Partners: • Zelenskyy highlighted the critical role of the U.S. and global allies in securing peace through strength. • “The only thing Putin fears is America and the unity of the world,” he said.

Zelenskyy underscored the immense human cost of the war and the importance of not settling for fragile agreements. He called on world leaders to ensure that peace, not war, becomes permanent and reliable.

🔹 Putin’s “Grand” Escape from Syria: Russia Withdraws from Tartus and Khmeimim, — HUR (Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine)

Russia is retreating from Syria, withdrawing warships from Tartus and moving remaining weapons from Khmeimim by air, according to the HUR.

“After losing control over Damascus amid the ongoing opposition offensive in Latakia, Hama, and Tartus, the Russian military pulled its warships from the Tartus naval base, which Assad had granted to Moscow in exchange for security,” the HUR reported.

On December 8, 2024, the frigate Admiral Grigorovich of the Black Sea Fleet and the cargo ship Engineer Trubin of the Northern Fleet left Tartus for the Mediterranean Sea, the HUR added.

“With opposition forces advancing toward the coast after capturing Damascus, Russia risks losing its bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, marking the Kremlin’s defeat in the Middle East,” the statement concluded.

🔸 Assad and His Family Reportedly Flee to Moscow, Say Russian Propagandists
Russian state news agency TASS, citing Kremlin sources, claims that Assad and his family have been granted asylum in Moscow.

🔹 “The events in Syria remind the world that even the most brutal regimes can fall. Russia and its allies can be defeated!” — Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

🔸 Russia’s War Costs Exceed $200 Billion, with 700,000 Casualties, — Pentagon Chief

Since February 2022, Russia has spent over $200 billion on its war with Ukraine and suffered at least 700,000 killed or wounded, according to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.

🔹 EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius Proposes €100 Billion Defence Fund to Counter Russia, —* Politico*

“We must be ready for the possibility of Russian aggression,” Kubilius stated. “If we fail in Ukraine, the risk of Russian military action against EU countries will undoubtedly rise,” Politico reports.

🔸 Candidate for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visits Kyiv, reports say.

The Christian Democratic Union leader arrived in Ukraine just a week after current Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit.

This marks Merz's second trip to Ukraine; his first was in May 2022.

🔹 During a car explosion in Donetsk, Sergei Yevsyukov, the former head of the Olenivka colony, was nearby, reports Mash. He did not survive the incident.

Russian media also report that his wife, who works for the so-called occupation Ministry of Internal Affairs, was injured. She is hospitalized in moderate condition, though some sources claim her condition is serious.

Preliminary information suggests a plastite charge, equivalent to 100 grams of TNT, was placed under the Toyota Land Cruiser. This has not been officially confirmed.

I do have 2 thoughts on the situation in Syria, one perhaps positive the other less so:

• will other allies of Russia see it as less reliable a partner and as such seek to make themselves less reliant upon it?
• will the loss of prestige and influence in Syria cause Putin to double down in Ukraine and against the West as a way to, in his eyes, regain some of his reputation as a powerful player.

Live:Ukraine

🔹 Donald Trump expresses Kyiv’s desire to reach a deal to halt the war following his meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris and the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. (Photo 1)

🔸 Trump was reluctantnt_ to meet with Zelensky, but Macron persuaded him*

One source reported that Trump initially refused to agree to the meeting but eventually changed his mind. Another source familiar with the meeting said it lasted 45 minutes and was “good and productive.”

The source also noted that the final decision to hold the trilateral meeting was made shortly before it took place.

🇸🇾🇷🇺Russia withdraws ships from Syria’s Tartus base and relocates remaining weapons by air from Khmeimim – Ukraine’s Military Intelligence reports

The naval base in Tartus, previously handed over by Assad to Moscow in exchange for protecting his regime, is now being evacuated due to the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Currently, Syrian oppositions forces control Assad’s residence, government buildings, and the central office of the national television in the country’s capital, Damascus.

🇺🇸Ukraine should prepare for a potential reduction in U.S. aid, says NBC News citing Trump

When asked by an NBC News journalist whether Ukraine should prepare for a decrease in U.S. assistance, newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump replied, “Possibly“.

🔹 Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expresses readiness to pave the way for restoring relations with Syria in the future

“We are ready to pave the way for restoring relations in the future and reaffirm our support for the Syrian people“, said Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha.

Later, the ministry released a statement regarding the fall of Assad’s regime, noting that “events in Syria highlight the weakness of Putin’s regime, which is unable to fight on two fronts and abandons its closest allies to continue its aggression against Ukraine.”

“We call on Syria’s future leadership to reconsider its relations with Putin’s regime, which caused the deaths of tens of thousands of Syrian citizens, including innocent women and children. We believe Syria’s long-term security depends on ending Russia’s presence in the country“, the Foreign Ministry added.

❗️The U.S. Embassy has released an alert regarding a heightened risk of airstrikes across Ukraine

Previously, a similar warning was issued by the Americans shortly before the “Oreshnik” strike on Dnipro.

🔸 Russia likely behind Bashar al-Assad’s escape from Syria – Ukrainian Defense Intelligence

Bashar al-Assad’s escape was accompanied by reports of his plane disappearing from radar, allegedly due to being shot down or a crash. However, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, this narrative is Russian disinformation.

“The aggressor state, Russia, used disinformation to cover its operation to rescue the Syrian leader and a limited circle of his close associates. The loss of Assad’s plane signal from radars is likely linked to the crew following Russian instructions and operating under their guidance”, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence stated.

❗️According to Russian media, Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad has landed in Moscow along with his family.

🇬🇪🌲 Protesters in Tbilisi Adorn Christmas Tree with Ukrainian Flag

In Tbilisi, protesters have “decorated” a Christmas tree on Rustaveli Avenue with a Ukrainian flag.

The installation of the tree began late Saturday night, organized by “TbilService Group” while protesters were absent from the area near the parliament. However, they returned on the evening of December 8.

Efforts to fully decorate the tree were interrupted. At one point, police formed a cordon around the site.

Currently, the top of the tree is covered with artificial branches, while the lower section features the “decorations” added by protesters. These include flags of Georgia, the EU, Ukraine, and the U.S., as well as photos of Georgian journalists who harmed during protest dispersals or deliberately attacked by police or hired provocateurs.

🔹 The SBU’s maritime drones targeted Russian helicopters and aircraft in a nighttime operation in Kerch Bay.

The operation, conducted during the night of December 6, involved a fleet of SBU Sea Baby maritime drones engaging in combat with Russian helicopters, aircraft, and Raptor patrol boats attempting to intercept them.

Intercepted Russian radio communications confirm casualties among the helicopter crews, with some killed and others wounded. The helicopters also sustained significant damage and now require major repairs.

Additionally, the SBU drones hit a barge transporting military equipment and repair materials for the Crimean Bridge. Russian forces have been unsuccessfully attempting to restore the bridge after previous sabotage operations by Ukrainian special services.

💥After a car explosion in Donetsk, former head of the Olenivka penal colony in the so-called “DPR,” Serhiy Yevsyukov, was killed. His wife was also injured, reportedly losing a leg, according to Russian social media channels.

In July 2023, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) charged Yevsyukov with multiple crimes.

“From the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion until the end of July 2022, he orchestrated the torture of over 100 Ukrainian Armed Forces prisoners of war,” the SBU reported.

Yevsyukov was also charged in connection with the deaths of Ukrainian soldiers during the Olenivka prison terrorist attack. At least 50 Ukrainian service members lost their lives in the attack, with nine of them dying due to a lack of urgent medical aid. Nearly 150 others were injured.

🇩🇪The German chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz has arrived in Kyiv for a visit

According to him, the purpose of his trip is to reassure Ukraine’s leadership of the support from his conservative bloc. Merz’s visit comes just a week after Chancellor Olaf Scholz made an unannounced trip to Ukraine.

Merz has taken a more hardline stance on Russia compared to Scholz, notably stating that Germany should supply Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles.