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Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

1000 replies

MagicFox · 05/12/2024 18:14

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
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293
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 06/12/2024 17:49

Well ..... interesting. He did get a lot of votes, but it's not fair and free if Russia's been putting its ugly thumb on the scales and pushing down hard.

Difficult for Romania.

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 06/12/2024 21:55

A lot of Russian interference everywhere it seems. Purely curious but I'd like to see how these plans were made. There's a methodology somewhere even if it's only in Putin's head!

Pleased to see the Romanian court stepping up to protect the electorate.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 06/12/2024 23:04

A summary of what's been happening in Syria, tho I don't know anything about the writer.

It seems that at least one senior Russian commander has been killed, but also that "at least six hospitals have been hit in precision airstrikes, in addition to several schools, IDP camps and Aleppo University. Aleppo’s Christian district of Sulaymaniyah has been hit several times by Russian airstrikes"

According to this article there seem to be early attempts to establish a reasonable govt and talk of respecting other religious communities.

It also seems that Putin might be fed up with Assad. And that ISIS is a real threat.

And somewhere, there's been an intense training and equipping of the hostile-to-Assad forces, for at least four years.

https://www.syriaweekly.com/p/special-syria-nov-26-dec-3-2024

SPECIAL: Syria -- Nov 26-Dec 3, 2024

HTS & opposition take Aleppo city, doubling territory in 6 days

https://www.syriaweekly.com/p/special-syria-nov-26-dec-3-2024

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 06/12/2024 23:33

Whilst I would love HTS to honour what they are saying, similar groups have not held true. One wonders how many of their fighters and members subscribe to the professed attitude and how many the old? And how many are there for security/change/food & money!

Unless there has been a significant shift amongst nearly all members in their attitude towards being a respectable government and tolerating others then you only need a little bit of infighting or some small faction to kick things off. In that case Syrians will be facing a Daesh/alQaeda type group. Since I am fairly unaffected and very powerless, I'll simply hope that I'm proved wrong and that HTS do indeed want to be taken seriously nationally and internationally.

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 06/12/2024 23:59

Does anyone know if the Russian regime would be willing to work with HTS and vice versa? I still maintain a healthy skepticism that HTS will entirely oust Assad, however.

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 07/12/2024 00:06

All these parenting experts and breastfeeding supremos that MN invites in for Q&As, forget them! MN should get us a knowledgeable and articulate geopolitics or warfare expert or some senior military chappy* πŸ˜„Now that would be interesting.

*chappy is of course gender neutral now for I have decreed it (Yoon-style but with more success).

Igotjelly · 07/12/2024 00:27

I think if they asked Mark Galeotti or Dom Nichols on I might spontaneously combust πŸ˜‚

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 07/12/2024 00:27

Igotjelly · 07/12/2024 00:27

I think if they asked Mark Galeotti or Dom Nichols on I might spontaneously combust πŸ˜‚

@MNHQ could you arrange? πŸ˜‚

MagicFox · 07/12/2024 08:04

Igotjelly · 07/12/2024 00:27

I think if they asked Mark Galeotti or Dom Nichols on I might spontaneously combust πŸ˜‚

Me too! Also Keir Giles, Lawrence Freedman et al But Mark Galeotti yea yes yes

OP posts:
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/12/2024 11:20

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️ Romanian constitutional court annuls results (kyivindependent.com/constitutional-court-annuls-results-of-1st-round-of-presidential-election-in-romania-led-by-russian-friendly-candidate/) of presidential election's first round.
The Constitutional Court judges overturned the results after reviewing newly declassified documents from the Romanian Supreme National Defense Council.
According to the documents, Georgescu's campaign was β€œthe result of organized manipulation from abroad.”

⚑️ EU fails to approve 15th sanctions package (kyivindependent.com/eu-fails-to-approve-15th-sanctions-package-against-russia-reuters-reports/)against Russia, Reuters reports.
The European Union has failed to approve its 15th sanctions package on Russia, which included an extension for Czechia to import Russian oil products through Slovakia, Reuters reported on Dec. 6, citing unnamed diplomatic sources.

⚑️ Denmark delivers second batch of F-16 fighter jets (kyivindependent.com/denmark-delivers-second-batch-of-f-16-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-zelensky-announces/) to Ukraine, Zelensky announces.

⚑️Georgian opposition politician detained (kyivindependent.com/georgian-opposition-politician-detained-by-police-crackdown-continues-on-ninth-day-of-mass-protests/) by police, crackdown continues on ninth day of mass protests.

⚑️ Zelensky may meet Trump at Notre-Dame Cathedral reopening (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-may-meet-trump-at-notre-dame-cathedral-reopening-in-paris-afp-reports/) in Paris, AFP reports.

⚑️ Ukrainian sea drones target Russian-occupied gas platforms (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroys-russian-surveillace-system-in-crimea-naval-forces-say/) in Crimea, Navy says.

⚑️ Zelensky unveils new Ukrainian new missile-drone β€” 'Peklo.' (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-delivers-first-peklo-drone-missiles/)
The Peklo (Hell) has a range of 700 kilometers (430 miles) and a speed of 700 km/h (430 mph).

⚑️ Estonian company to test AI-guided anti-drone missiles (kyivindependent.com/estonian-company-to-test-ai-guided-anti-aircraft-missiles-in-ukraine/) in Ukraine, CEO says.
A key feature of the system is its artificial intelligence capability for autonomous targeting.

⚑️ Lukashenko asks Putin to deploy Oreshnik missile systems (kyivindependent.com/lukashenko-asks-putin-to-provide-new-russian-intermediate-range-ballistic-missile-oreshnik/) in Belarus, Russian state-controlled media says.

⚑️ Putin replaces Kursk Oblast governor Alexei Smirnov due to management 'chaos (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-replaces-kursk-governor-amid-issues-following-ukraine-invasion/)' after Ukraine incursion, media reports.

⚑️ At least 10 Shahed-type drones (kyivindependent.com/during-night-shahed-attack-on-ukraine-10-drones-reportedly-flew-into-belarus-monitoring-group-says/) veer into Belarus during overnight attack on Ukraine, monitoring group says.

⚑️Canada to strengthen Arctic cooperation with US amid rising Russian threats (kyivindependent.com/canada-to-strengthen-arctic-cooperation-with-us-amid-rising-russian-threats/).

Children who lost parents in Russia’s war share dreams, hopes in letters to St. Nicholas (https://kyivindependent.com/children-who-lost-parents-in-russias-war-share-dreams-hopes-in-letters-to-st-nicholas/)

⚑️ Russian attacks against Kherson Oblast injure 16, including child (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-kherson-injure-16-over-past-day-governor-reports/), governor reports.
These attacks follow recent developments on the front lines, where military forces are locked in battle over small islands in the Dnipro River.

⚑️UPDATE: Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih kills 3, injures 17 (kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-kryvyi-rih-killing-at-least-1-injuring-others-including-6-year-old-boy/), including 6-year-old boy.
⚑️ Update: Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia (kyivindependent.com/russian-strike-against-zaporizhzhia-kills-7-injures-4-including-children/) kills 10, injures 24, including children.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ β€ͺ

  • DEC 7, 2024
β–  Combat engagement, casualties & equipment losses below 7-day average β–  Last 7 days: casualties +8%, landbased equipment losses +5% β–  πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί strikes below average, πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ ones above - improved ratio
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/12/2024 11:26

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Sweden and Denmark have announced a significant order for CV90 MKIIIC infantry fighting vehicles, with 40 units designated for Ukraine.
Find out more about these vehicles in our video:

Putin has agreed to deploy the Oreshnik systems in Belarus by 2025. These systems, touted by Moscow as a deterrent to the West after Ukraine's successful long-range strikes, will be stationed in Belarus following a formal request by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.

Hungarian intelligence services reportedly spied on EU officials visiting the country, including searching their hotel rooms and wiretapping their conversations, according to Politico citing a joint investigation by Direkt36 and De Tijd.
The targets of the surveillance were investigators from the European Fraud and Abuse Prevention Office (OLAF), who had previously investigated a Hungarian company linked to Prime Minister Viktor OrbΓ‘n's son-in-law.
The investigation found that OLAF employees visiting Hungary in 2015 and 2017 were followed, had their phones wiretapped, and had their hotel rooms searched. The report also revealed that it is a standard practice for Hungarian intelligence to gather data from the laptops of EU delegations during visits.

Western Sanctions Gradually Erode Russia’s Military Power, Report Says
Western sanctions are increasingly undermining Russia’s ability to produce weapons, according to The Washington Post. Initially aimed at the economy, the restrictions are now targeting critical components like chips, sensors, and specialized electronics essential for military production.
Key takeaways from the report:
β€’ Weapon Quality Decline: Sanctions have degraded the quality of Russian weapons and made supply chains more fragile, even when circumventing restrictions through third countries like China.
β€’ Shortages of High-Tech Parts: Russia is experiencing shortages of essential components, including tank lubricants and advanced machinery for UAVs.
β€’ Equipment Failures: Substituting components, such as replacing South Korean engines in Iranian drones with Chinese ones, has caused increased malfunctions.
β€’ Depleting Reserves: While Russia offsets losses through mass production, experts predict a shortage of tanks by 2025 as reserves dwindle.
β€’ Costly Smuggling Schemes: Russia employs spies and smugglers to obtain restricted goods, but these operations are slow and costly.
Experts believe these disruptions in Russia’s military industry could significantly influence the course of the war.

EU Urges US to Ease Sanctions on Gazprombank Over Energy Security Concerns
Sources told the publication that EU countries are exploring alternative payment options through Gazprombank's Luxembourg subsidiary and other channels to ensure stable energy supplies.

Syrian Rebels' Advance Threatens Putin’s Gains, Report Says
The rapid advance of Syrian rebels, including the successful capture of Aleppo and Hama, is challenging one of Russia’s key achievements: its 2015 military intervention that strengthened Bashar al-Assad’s regime, according to The Washington Post.

EU Continues to Fund Russia by Buying Russian Fuel from India, Report Says
The European Union has increased its purchases of Russian-produced fuel from India in 2024, despite efforts to curb Russia's oil revenue, according to Politico, citing a study by the Center for the Study of Democracy.
From January to August, the EU bought 20% more fuel from Indian refineries that process Russian oil compared to the same period last year.

Czech volunteers delivered 12,000 FPV drones to Ukraine in a year, and another 3,000 are awaiting delivery.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed accelerating the delivery of the tenth aid package to Ukraine with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Russian forces have hit Zaporizhzhia using FAB-250 bombs fitted with Unified Planning and Correction Modules (UMPK), according to Ukrainian police.
The FAB-250, a 250-kilogram general-purpose bomb with a high-explosive fragmentation warhead, has been adapted by Russia for greater range and accuracy. The UMPK modifications, which include an inertial navigation system, give these lighter and more aerodynamic bombs a planning range of up to 80 kilometers.
This adaptation allows Russian aircraft to drop the bombs from safer distances, such as the Tokmak and Molochansk regions, while still reaching targets as far as Zaporizhzhia.

Iran's Foreign Minister's Aide Calls on Ukraine to "Stop Supporting Syrian Rebels" as Step Violates Countries' Counter-Terrorism Commitments

Ukrainian St.Nicholas.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/12/2024 11:28

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

In an early morning raid, Ukraine's drone fleet attacked the area of the Kerch bridge, likely targeting shipyards.
www.kyivpost.com/post/43397

Reporting on losses in Ukraine's ongoing operations in Russia's Kursk region, Head of Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Syrskyi, states that Ukrainian losses are β€œalmost half” of those suffered by Russian forces.
The General reports that Russia has had 7,905 soldiers killed and 12,220 wounded in the Kursk region alone. Additionally, 717 Russians were taken prisoner, now in Ukrainian captivity.

A $500 Drone vs. a $4.5M Tank: How Ukraine’s Drones Defeated Russia’s β€˜Unstoppable’ Armor
The T-90M tank, Russia’s pride and joy, has long been regarded as a symbol of Moscow’s military might.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/43443

Surrounded with his own gunmen, Putin's Chechen "strongman", Kadyrov shows how tough he really is by taunting a group of captive Ukrainians, offering them a pistol for suicide and announcing intention to use them as human shields.
www.kyivpost.com/post/43374

Kyiv’s main Christmas tree has lit upπŸŽ„

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/12/2024 11:31

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

πŸ‡«πŸ‡· Macron will receive Zelensky at the Elysee Palace on Saturday, December 7, the French president's press service said

Rescue operations in Zaporizhzhia are over
Russian attack killed 10 people, injured 24 others, including three children - a four-month-old baby, 4 and 11 years old.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦Canada bans (apnews.com/article/canada-firearms-ban-ukraine-81ccaa341badb74bb27d34fc4bb29b17) more types of firearms and proposes donating guns to Ukraine

Usou · 07/12/2024 16:16

PM.

Watching Syria intently.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/12/2024 17:22

Good lord, has Damascus fallen?

Edited: 'fallen' in quotation marks

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 07/12/2024 17:34

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/12/2024 17:22

Good lord, has Damascus fallen?

Edited: 'fallen' in quotation marks

Edited

I'm pretty sure Assad and wife have fled.

Damascus looks like it is falling but unclear to who. Maybe HTS, maybe other rebel groups from other areas, maybe from pissed off civillians.

It's going to be a long and bloody road though. It'd take an immensely charismatic, emotionally intelligent, strategic negotiator and leader to get different groups to live and work together. I doubt there are many who could manage it. Thus in-fighting, intra-fighting and general bloodshed for a long-time is likely.

It is interesting that Russia, Iran and Hezbollah have never really come to Assad's aid despite all the speculation.

As an aside, the media speaks of "everyone's" surprise at the speed of events. There was the same narrative about the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and Wagner's march towards Moscow. Are they really surprising or are people not observing signs or have times changed and do the old rules no longer apply? Maybe social media means that people hear about unrest sooner and are quicker to join in or retreat. That probably is not all of it but I like to think aloud.

notimagain · 07/12/2024 17:44

@LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole

It's going to be a long and bloody road though. It'd take an immensely charismatic, emotionally intelligent, strategic negotiator and leader to get different groups to live and work together. I doubt there are many who could manage it. Thus in-fighting, intra-fighting and general bloodshed for a long-time is likely.

Sadly I think that’s a good summary.

As an aside, the media speaks of "everyone's" surprise at the speed of events. There was the same narrative about the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and Wagner's march towards Moscow. Are they really surprising or are people not observing signs

I think one problem is the MSM tend to get a bit lazy and start relying on their select group of friendly experts who they have on speed dial.

There were certainly SMEs warning about the Taliban resurgence for a long time before the major outlets started to report it, OTOH Wagners march not so much.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/12/2024 17:49

The article linked yesterday said that Syrian rebels have been training hard for 4 years. Turkey stopped them marching back in October, but now they went for it.

Apparently "Syrian opposition forces have reportedly reached Sednaya Prison, and the fight for its liberation has begun. Sednaya Prison is known as the "Human Slaughterhouse""

There's going to be some grim stories coming from there.

On a bigger scale, the rumours are that Russia has left Tartus.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/12/2024 18:03

fog of war, apparently the prison has not yet been reached.

blueshoes · 07/12/2024 19:15

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces have not yet evacuated the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria as of December 6, but it remains unclear whether Russia will keep its vessels at the port as Syrian rebels continue to advance swiftly across regime-held territory.
  • Russia appears to be redeploying at least some of its air defense assets that were defending Russia's Khmeimim Air Base in Syria, but the reason for this redeployment remains unclear at this time.
  • The Kremlin continues to advance its strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus and further expand the Russian military’s presence in Belarus through the Union State framework.
  • Lukashenko is likely trying to preserve Belarusian sovereignty against Moscow by advocating that Belarus control Russian weapons deployed in Belarus - an endeavor Lukashenko has historically failed at.
  • The deployment of the Oreshnik missiles to Belarus does not significantly increase the immediate risks of intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strikes against Ukraine or NATO states despite the Kremlin’s intensified nuclear saber-rattling.
  • The Kremlin is scapegoating former Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov for Russia's failure to adequately respond to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov used his interview with an American media personality to reiterate Kremlin talking points that are intended to shape American foreign policy and achieve a US-Russia reset detrimental to US interests and on the Kremlin's terms.
  • Western sanctions are reportedly degrading the overall quality of Russian drones, indicating that targeted sanctions are having some negative effects on the Russian defense industrial base (DIB).
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
  • The Russian military continues to lose parts of its officer corps, a resource that is difficult to replenish, as part of Russia's ever-increasing casualties.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Igotjelly · 07/12/2024 20:37

Trump and Zelenskyy have been meeting in Paris this evening. Can only hope Zelenskyy was able to use his charm on the Donald!

MMBaranova · 07/12/2024 21:58

Syria. The reports and images on the ground outran the speculation and then they switched places. Assadists certainly seem to have abandoned positions, uniforms and hope. Their different opponents advance not only with arms, but belief and certainty. I'll wait 24-48 hours to see what truly transpires.

WinterMorn · 08/12/2024 01:51

F

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