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Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

1000 replies

MagicFox · 05/12/2024 18:14

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

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MagicFox · 16/02/2025 11:59

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 16/02/2025 10:53

If the US tells Europe that it -has- to accept the terms negotiated and supply peace keepers, I hope Zelensky will refuse to accept them. Trump is not the boss of Europe.

Yes. If we increase our defence spending we will become more independent and that's exactly what's needed!

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MagicFox · 16/02/2025 12:01

I can't believe it's a year since Navalny was killed

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RedRosesParmaViolets · 16/02/2025 12:10

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress thanks for that rational and reasoned response. I am aware I'm wading into a thread which many have been following intensely for years now.

I'm just being pragmatic really.
I don't support putin at all I'd love him to be taken out I think he's absolutely vile and horrendous and stupid and every bad epithet you can throw at him.
However it's deadlock and the USA is pumping a lot of money into this I really felt for zelensky during his speech saying Europe needs to defend itself.

What has is done in all these years to shore itself up?

Ukraine has always been stuck because we have had to be careful how much support it can get.
As soon as an accord is announced we can supply planes and bigger weapons and if putin wants to cross into Ukraine again through international peace keepers and to a better armed Ukraine so be it.

An interesting idea mooted on TV this am was to say, if putin attacks again Ukraine can automatically be part of nato.

I don't fear putin going for other countries when Ukraine has gone so badly for uin

RedRosesParmaViolets · 16/02/2025 12:11

@MagicFox but that was needed years ago all these conversations happened years ago in the last rump government, why was nothing done?

MagicFox · 16/02/2025 12:12

That's my question too. It has taken this terrible war to ram it home. And even now it's too slow

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MagicFox · 16/02/2025 12:13

It's short termist thinking

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RedRosesParmaViolets · 16/02/2025 12:16

@Igotjelly but why?

All that faced the build up of his troops before that invasion was that poor old lady holding a gun remember?

There was absolutely nothing on that border to stop him.
Hopefully any negotiated deal would mean a heavily armed border with far stronger equipment behind it

Russia hasn't been bombed or attacked yet, if Ukraine got planes then it would.

RedRosesParmaViolets · 16/02/2025 12:17

@MagicFox far too slow they shouldn't still be in the talking about it stage.

Poor zelensky repeatedly saying the same thing over the years.
Why don't the European leaders want to shore up! It beggars belief.

MagicFox · 16/02/2025 12:19

There is a change, it's just that it's too little too late. But at least things are starting to move and the position of this US administration will ensure that things continue to speed up

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DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/02/2025 12:24

From The Times today, not enough but hopefully the start of recognition that russia is already on a war footing:

Starmer to overrule Reeves and boost spending on defence

PM seeks to seize the initiative as he prepares to fly to Washington to meet Trump

Tim Shipman, Chief Political Commentator | Harry Yorke, Deputy Political Editor

Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to overrule Rachel Reeves and raise British defence spending after a dramatic security summit in Munich at the weekend when the US piled pressure on Ukraine to strike a peace deal with Russia.
The prime minister is due to fly to Washington to see President Trump next week, and an announcement is due as early as tomorrow, sources revealed.
Allies of Starmer sought to seize the initiative after a week in which Trump shocked world leaders by announcing that he had begun discussions with President Putinn_ about a deal.

Speaking on Saturday night, the prime minister said it was a β€œonce in a generation moment” for the UK, the US and Europe to work together, as he warned against divisions in Nato.
He said: β€œIt's clear Europe must take on a greater role in Nato.
We cannot allow any divisions in the alliance to distract from the external enemies we face.”

Earlier on Saturday, Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, in effect confirmed that European allies would be excluded from the Ukraine peace deal talks, stating that he was from β€œthe school of realism, and that is not going to happen”. He also claimed Russia might have to cede territory in any peace deal and there was a need to target its oil revenues to force Β­Moscow to reach a compromise.

At the Munich security conference yesterday, President Zelensky called for the creation of a European armyy_ at a time of Β­growing fears in Kyiv that Trump and his team would enforce a pro-Putin settlement. The Ukrainian president had insisted on European involvement in the talks.
Other developments:
β€’ This week Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz, his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, will begin peace talks with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators in Saudi Arabia.
β€’ The US is demanding a total of $500 billion of rare earth minerals half of Ukraine's reserves in return for continuing to provide military aid to Kyiv.
β€’ Britain joined G7 leaders in threatening Russia with further sanctions after this month unless it entered into peace talks β€œin good faith”
β€’ They backed giving Ukraine β€œrobust security guarantees” and maintaining its β€œfreedom, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity”.
β€’ David Lammy, the foreign secretary, said Ukraine's future was an β€œexistential question” for Europe and warned that the cost of failure would dwarf maintaining financial support for Kyiv.
β€’ Jean-NoΓ«l Barrot, the French foreign minister, declared that the 30-year β€œpeace dividend” that Europe had enjoyed since the end of the Cold War was β€œover”.
Downing Street signalled Β­support for higher defence spending after Starmer held one-to-one meetings at
the Ministry of Defence on Friday with Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the defence staff, and the respective heads of the army, RAF and Royal Navy. They are calling for him to raise the spending to 2.65 per cent of GDP, above Labour's target.
Labour has yet to set a timetable for defence spending to hit 2.5 per cent, and on Friday a senior Treasury source insisted Reeves was not yet willing to hand over more than 2.3 per cent in the spending review this year. Hitting 2.5 per cent would add Β£5 billion to the MoD budget and reaching 2.65 per cent would cost Β£10 billion.
But in a shot across the chancellor's bows, an ally of Starmer made clear that he, not Reeves, would be making the decision and indicated that Trump's approach meant spending more was inevitable.
The source said: β€œIn the end, it's the prime minister's decision on national security. This one does sit with the PM. We know we have to set out when we're getting to 2.5 per cent. The defence and security review will still do what we needed to do.”

Service chiefs are increasingly concerned about the progress of the strategic defence revieww_, which is due to be published by the middle of this year. It is being led by Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, a former defence secretary and Nato secretary-general, and Sir Richard Barrons, a retired general.
Defence sources have told The Sunday Times that Robertson's team have made many changes to their original blueprint and in recent days submitted their fourth draft. One said the review was now at risk of becoming a β€œmess”, adding: β€œThey [the service chiefs] have not really meaningfully been consulted.”
MoD sources do not deny disagreements but insist there are no tensions.
Lammy and his team spent yesterday helping to persuade the Americans to sign up to the G7 statement, which gave greater support to Ukraine than Trump's team had done last week.
The US commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty was seized on by Boris Johnson, who has had conversations with Trump about Ukraine, and who said Kyiv should be allowed to join Nato if it wished.
He said: β€œThe United States under Donald Trump is committed to a sovereign Ukraine. A sovereign country cannot be constrained in choosing which organisations it wishes to join. Ukraine is entirely sensible in wanting to join Natoo_. That process is a matter for Ukraine and Nato. It is absolutely nothing to do with Putin or Russia.”
In a warning to Trump, he added: β€œI am afraid that attempts to negotiate on this point with Vladimir Putin are completely wrong in principle. They are also doomed. Putin's demands will prove impossible to satisfy. Washington wants a sovereign Ukraine. Putin wants a vassal state. This is binary. It is time for the Europeans with Britain in the lead to get serious, listen to what Trump is saying and step up our military support for Ukraine.”

RedRosesParmaViolets · 16/02/2025 12:24

Putin is this big ghastly threat and mustn't be appeased except... We aren't going to do anything meaningful about it

dibly · 16/02/2025 13:26

What’s the feeling like about this in the US @MissConductUS? I’m not seeing any democrats speaking out against it, but in all the noise maybe it’s just getting overlooked.

One of the most abhorrent things is the pressure on the US for Ukranian minerals, while insisting that European troops act as a peace keeping force- for how long? Feels like this is the US stepping back from NATO by the back door.

minsmum · 16/02/2025 13:39

I think Europe,the Uk,Ukraine, Canada and all American allies need to adapt very quickly to the new world order. With Trump as President they can't be relied on it really is America first,last and everything in between.

MissConductUS · 16/02/2025 14:29

dibly · 16/02/2025 13:26

What’s the feeling like about this in the US @MissConductUS? I’m not seeing any democrats speaking out against it, but in all the noise maybe it’s just getting overlooked.

One of the most abhorrent things is the pressure on the US for Ukranian minerals, while insisting that European troops act as a peace keeping force- for how long? Feels like this is the US stepping back from NATO by the back door.

The reaction has generally been poor. This, from the WSJ, seem fairly typical.

Peace Through Weakness in Ukraine? - Against Putin unlike everywhere else, Trump makes concessions first.

The mineral deal, if it can be made fairer to Ukraine and if it ever comes to pass, might be to Ukraine's long-term benefit. As of now, the US has little economic interest in Ukraine or commercial presence there. Closer economic ties bring closer political and military relations.

I entirely agree that European troops should act as the peacekeeping force. Ukraine is not a NATO member that we are pledged to defend, and Russia is a much more significant threat to Europe than the US. It's also substantially more expensive for us to deploy and supply a force in Ukraine from the US than it would be for European militaries to do so. Ukraine is in their backyard, not ours. Finally, it's long past time for Europe to start handling this sort of mission without assuming that we'll always step in and do the hard, expensive bits.

dibly · 16/02/2025 14:51

Thanks MissConduct, agree to disagree though. It’s entirely in th U’s interests to help to maintain peace in Europe, not only is it morally the right thing to do but it would also avoid the US potentially having to deal with an expanded Russia in future, and all the world order consequences that would come with that. Obviously alongside significantly increased defence spending across Europe.

My knee jerk reaction as it stands is to boycott buying anything from the US.

PerkingFaintly · 16/02/2025 14:51

I haven't thought my way through all of this, but I don't understand in what way is it in the interest of anyone but the US, for Ukraine to make a mineral deal with the US.

If Ukraine is asking European nations to defend it, would such a deal not be better made with those European nations?

And surely a mineral deal with a US administration which is in the pocket of the Kremlin does not protect Ukraine from further invasion by Russia. The US and Russia could simply agree that whatever "regime change" Russia forcibly inflicts on Ukraine, the deal will still stand.

Sorry, I'm sure there is more depth to this. But off the top of my head, I don't see the benefit to Ukraine of a mineral deal with a country which isn't going to protect it anyway.

WinterMorn · 16/02/2025 14:55

dibly · 16/02/2025 14:51

Thanks MissConduct, agree to disagree though. It’s entirely in th U’s interests to help to maintain peace in Europe, not only is it morally the right thing to do but it would also avoid the US potentially having to deal with an expanded Russia in future, and all the world order consequences that would come with that. Obviously alongside significantly increased defence spending across Europe.

My knee jerk reaction as it stands is to boycott buying anything from the US.

Yes. The fact is that the US, like it or not, is the cornerstone of all this and they need to be in it all the way.

PerkingFaintly · 16/02/2025 15:07

Also, there seems to be a baked-in assumption that although the US gets to effectively switch sides and (in Trump's mind) be bigly pals with Russia, everyone else will stay in the same position and keep Russia in check for the US.

In reality, major power shifts mean it could happen that Russia builds a large bloc in Europe – larger than the old Soviet bloc and including unexpected countries – and creates a very powerful antagonist to the US. One large enough to challenge the US economically as well as militarily.

I find so much behaviour in politics to be like a someone having an affair – who assumes that they gets to decide what happens; they gets to choose whether to stay and generously permit their spouse to keep serving them, or to leave and bestow their magnificent presence on the affair partner. They think they are in charge of timings, of the money, of the property disposal etc. IME such people react with genuine astonishment and indignation when they discover that, um, everyone else in the picture has agency too. And will rearrange themselves in the new order to their own convenience, not that of the Hero of The Affair.

biscuitandcake · 16/02/2025 15:38

MissConductUS · 16/02/2025 14:29

The reaction has generally been poor. This, from the WSJ, seem fairly typical.

Peace Through Weakness in Ukraine? - Against Putin unlike everywhere else, Trump makes concessions first.

The mineral deal, if it can be made fairer to Ukraine and if it ever comes to pass, might be to Ukraine's long-term benefit. As of now, the US has little economic interest in Ukraine or commercial presence there. Closer economic ties bring closer political and military relations.

I entirely agree that European troops should act as the peacekeeping force. Ukraine is not a NATO member that we are pledged to defend, and Russia is a much more significant threat to Europe than the US. It's also substantially more expensive for us to deploy and supply a force in Ukraine from the US than it would be for European militaries to do so. Ukraine is in their backyard, not ours. Finally, it's long past time for Europe to start handling this sort of mission without assuming that we'll always step in and do the hard, expensive bits.

https://treaties.un.org/Pages/showDetails.aspx?objid=0800000280401fbb

Llttledrummergirl · 16/02/2025 15:59

Dibly, I am exactly the same. Everytime someone mentions, my mind goes to a well known cereal brand, I must check if they are connected before I boycott that though.

Sorry, I'm sure there is more depth to this. But off the top of my head, I don't see the benefit to Ukraine of a mineral deal with a country which isn't going to protect it anyway

This. What exactly is America going to fo for these riches? They clearly can't be trusted to keep their word so anything they promise needs to be upfront.

MissConductUS · 16/02/2025 16:05

WinterMorn · 16/02/2025 14:55

Yes. The fact is that the US, like it or not, is the cornerstone of all this and they need to be in it all the way.

The problem is that the only European countries that have substantially increased their defense spending since 2021 are those closest to Russia.

Who’s at 2 percent? Look how NATO allies have increased their defense spending since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The UK's spending, for example, has barely budged, having gone from 2.29% of GDP in 2021 to 2.33% in 2024. This is in a period post-COVID that has seen inflationary increases in the cost of everything. In real terms, spending has decreased. And there are lots of European countries that are still below the 2% floor.

God help us all if Europe can't find 75k troops for a peacekeeping mission in Europe.

PerkingFaintly · 16/02/2025 16:11

I absolutely agree that European countries need to increase our defence spending.

WinterMorn · 16/02/2025 16:12

I don’t disagree that Europe, the UK included, needs to significantly step up and in fact, I was quite prepared to vote Conservative in the 2024 election on the basis that they appeared to have the most realistic viewpoint on defense and defense spending. None of this changes the fact that what the Trump administration is proposing is shocking, destabilizing and wrong.

PerkingFaintly · 16/02/2025 16:17

This. What exactly is America going to fo for these riches? They clearly can't be trusted to keep their word so anything they promise needs to be upfront.

Well yes, exactly.

It's extremely regrettable that the Trump administration has taken this route. But here we are.

Natsku · 16/02/2025 16:58

PerkingFaintly · 16/02/2025 14:51

I haven't thought my way through all of this, but I don't understand in what way is it in the interest of anyone but the US, for Ukraine to make a mineral deal with the US.

If Ukraine is asking European nations to defend it, would such a deal not be better made with those European nations?

And surely a mineral deal with a US administration which is in the pocket of the Kremlin does not protect Ukraine from further invasion by Russia. The US and Russia could simply agree that whatever "regime change" Russia forcibly inflicts on Ukraine, the deal will still stand.

Sorry, I'm sure there is more depth to this. But off the top of my head, I don't see the benefit to Ukraine of a mineral deal with a country which isn't going to protect it anyway.

Agree with this. It is entirely fucked up that Trump thinks the US should get to take the wealth of Ukraine's minerals while washing its hands of Ukraine and putting all the burden on Europe.
Those minerals belong to Ukraine, they should be able to keep all the wealth they generate. God knows they need it to rebuild their country.

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