Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 9

[cakeorwine]

Because MN only allows 1000 posts and this is fast moving

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4496974-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-8

The other thing is that it’s actually quite insulting to Ukrainians to argue that they should give up their country. They will make the decision about what terms they are willing to agree to, and what rights they are prepared to die for. I remain in awe of their bravery.

@RedToothBrush

BBC Politics *@bbcpolitics* "If she cannot tell us where this visa centre is en route to Calais, there is no hope of Ukrainian families being able to find it themselves," says Labour's Yvette Cooper

Priti Patel says "we are setting up" a centre away from the port to prevent a surge

The Super Secret Visa Centre that not even the Home Secretary knows where it is located.

Thats a new one.

During the course of the day we have gone from

No10 admitting there was no visa centre in Calais
4hrs later Priti Patel saying there was.
The media shouting 'oh no theres not'
Patel going 'ok but there will be soon.'
To Patel saying 'actually we are not going to put it in Calais because that would be too convenient and we dont want a magnet for Ukrainian nationals.
To we aren't even going to tell you were this super secret processing centre on the way to Calais is, because despite saying we want to help refugees and make it easier for them, yes we are a bunch of utter lying cunts

I hate them.

I want to ship Patel to Ukraine. And then cancel her nationality on the grounds of national security.

Surely you don’t want to inflict Priti Patel on Ukraine, not after what it’s already going through?!

@RedToothBrush

Beth Rigby *@bethrigby* NEW: *@ZelenskyyUa* to make “historic address” to MPs tomorrow at 5pm. Screens to be installed overnight and more than 500 headsets will be made available

What will this be.. making me nervous

If history has taught us anything it is that democracy and the right of self determination for nations is worth fighting for. That is what I believe

@RedToothBrush

Beth Rigby *@bethrigby* NEW: *@ZelenskyyUa* to make “historic address” to MPs tomorrow at 5pm. Screens to be installed overnight and more than 500 headsets will be made available

Is this not the same thing he did with the US sennet

Okay so I was probably wrong in suggesting that Ukraine will accept those terms.

May I ask what the end game is then?
As Russia won’t give up and neither will Ukraine. So what happens? They just go on like this for years? Until the military are dead on both sides. I don’t understand, surely a compromise has to happen somewhere?

Sorry if I’m being thick, but I just can’t see where this can end?

Is this not the same thing he did with the US sennet

Think so.

Then 2 Senators published pics which they were explicitly told not to, in order to protect his life.

Will be interesting....

@ThirtyAndfeelingFifty

The threat of nuclear war is very real. We can’t ignore that just because everyone things that mutually assured destruction will put putin off . That would be assuming he’s 100% ok and I don’t t think he is which makes him likely to act irrationally and we can’t just risk the whole world ??

We should be supporting Ukraine to try to get everyone out who wants to leave and just let Putin have what he wants. He’s too dangerous

And when he invades Moldova, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland? Do we roll over and hope he tickles our bellies then as well?

@AgnesWestern

Okay so I was probably wrong in suggesting that Ukraine will accept those terms.

May I ask what the end game is then?
As Russia won’t give up and neither will Ukraine. So what happens? They just go on like this for years? Until the military are dead on both sides. I don’t understand, surely a compromise has to happen somewhere?

Sorry if I’m being thick, but I just can’t see where this can end?

Thats the million dollar question no one can answer, so no not a stupid question. Its the one even the brightest are trying to wrap heads around.

Yes it could go on for years.

Th is can end in one of two ways, Russia is defeated by Ukraine or Russia defeats Ukraine. Either of those outcomes will end the war but the second outcome will probably lead to a guerrilla war

I don't get the theory that it goes on for months or years though. How would russia afford this?

@RedToothBrush

Is this not the same thing he did with the US sennet

Think so.

Then 2 Senators published pics which they were explicitly told not to, in order to protect his life.

Will be interesting....

Hmmm so probably asking for a no fly zone, planes etc.

I don't think Ukraine should accept but I do hope that the peace talks to come are beneficial in some way and that some kind of off ramp can be found.

I support and admire their determination to fight but I am also concerned that Putin may end up deploying tactical nuclear weapons there as part of an 'escalate to de-escalate' strategy if this drags on much longer and it looks like the money will run out before he can declare a win. Russia's doctrine and attitude towards nuclear weapon use is rather different to ours, they have a been public about a lower threshold for where they feel their tactical use would be justified and that does concern me. It doesn't mean I think Ukraine should capitulate, but it is playing on my mind.

This is a real tweet:

Conservatives @conservatives
🇬🇧🤝🇨🇦🤝🇳🇱
𝐏𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧 𝐦𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐟𝐚𝐢𝐥.

That is why the UK, Canada and the Netherlands will lead 𝐚 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐜𝐨𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 to coordinate humanitarian, economic and defensive support for Ukraine

@elephantmarchingin me neither! But if for example it was a direct "give me Estonia or I use the nukes"... "give me Macedonia or I use the nukes..." etc etc etc EVENTUALLY we would have to because it would get ridiculous. Whereas at the moment, there is a lot of sabre rattling and treading around each other but no need for either side to say "do it". Giving in because of the sabre rattling would make things worse long term.

Sorry if I’m being thick, but I just can’t see where this can end?

None of us can really. That’s why negotiations happen. Until they are completed or called off for good nobody knows what terms each side is willing to accept.

Perhaps Putin will keep committing more and more forces until he does take the country. Followed by a deep rooted, determined (and probably armed) resistance against a puppet government. Perhaps Ukraine will accept independent peace keepers in the separatist regions, allowing Putin to claim those areas have been “liberated”.

There are lots of potential outcomes.

Has anyone mentioned Putin's mistress supposedly in a Swiss bolt hole with 4 of his childhood?
It was DM so not sure how true it is?

Maybe they fell out?? I Just find it strange if Swiss are harbouring her?

@minsmum

Th is can end in one of two ways, Russia is defeated by Ukraine or Russia defeats Ukraine. Either of those outcomes will end the war but the second outcome will probably lead to a guerrilla war

could you explain a bit about a guerrilla war...for those of us wondering, please

Hmmm so probably asking for a no fly zone, planes etc
I'm sure that Lindsay Hoyle will tell him that he is not allowed to ask for that.

As fat as I know, and I could be wrong, much Ukranian wheat goes to the middle east. Do you want Putin to have another lever to pull in that region?

To quote Godwin, do you think we should have done the same with Hitler after Poland?

I think you have to be a bit careful with this argument RTB. We spent a significant part of the 1930s appeasing Hitler - for a variety of reasons - no one wanted another war, a lot of the upper classes were quite happy with what Hitler was doing and found it preferable to Communisim. There was a lot of anti-semitism in the country. Added to which, the country wasn't in a position to fight another war.

When Hitler did invade Poland, we declared war on Germany and did what? Nothing much as far as Poland was concerned, we had the Phoney War. The Russians invaded Poland and we did? Nothing for the Poles then either.

What do we do now? It's hard to say, but the 'best' people we can put forward to negotiate are Johnson, Truss and Patel? Give me strength!

Sadly I am not surprised at Patel's behaviour - this also has parallels with the 1930s - how many countries willingly accepted Jews fleeing the Nazis? The UK was nothing like as welcoming as we would now like to pretend.

Can someone please explain how neutrality affects sovereignty? Last time I checked Switzerland was a neutral country with absolute democracy.

Regarding the territories, what realistically are the chances of Ukraine bringing Crimea back into its borders officially?

I agree there is the issue with the size of the separatist regions.

And the big elephant in the room is that Russia cannot be trusted. But what realistically can EU and NATO countries do in that regard to support whatever ends up being agreed? Because there will have to be compromise on both parts. It is nobody’s interest worldwide to run Ukraine and Russia into the ground in a war lasting for years.

If the Ukrainians are defeated they are very unlikely to just shrug their shoulders and say ok. The Russians will need to occupy the country and it is likely that a resistance will be set to carry on fighting

The rouble has collapsed. It's now worth half a US cent.

A New coalition!

Or in addition to all the others?