Ukraine invasion discussion thread - part 9

[cakeorwine]

Because MN only allows 1000 posts and this is fast moving

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4496974-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-8

We are going to need a new thread soon...

@bappymonday
Not much insight but I did hear a guy on Radio 4 say that they had broken into a shop in Mariupol as shops weren't open, there was food inside and people were starving. Bottled water also needed as there was no water there either.

Whether or not any of us would accept the terms offered by Russia (I personally wouldn’t), it is clear that Ukrainians won’t. Because (as a pp said) they are the exact same things Ukraine refused to agree to in the first place. The Ukrainian people, many of whom have lived under soviet rule before, decided to take up arms and fight rather than be ruled from Russia.

The rest of the West won’t put any pressure on Zelensky to acquiesce to this request because it actually isn’t in our interests either. One hopes our leaders has some semblance of respect for democracy too, but ultimately they will act in the best interests of their own countries. Hence giving military aid, accepting refugees (except UK, obvs), applying serious sanctions. But not implementing a no fly zone or sending soldiers.

@bappymonday
If you look at the Guardian diaries from Ukraine you can find out a bit about people's lived experience too.

Once peace is negotiated, Poland should invade the Ukraine.

Then the Ukraine would be part of NATO whistles innocently

You do realise that this gives Putin control of most of the wheat supplies in Europe? This has implications for many third world countries who are reliant on this.... we can probably afford to buy elsewhere. But its giving Russia more leverage by controlling food prices.

@peridito, for both NATO and Russia, trying to reduce their conventional forces was one aim of the Founding Act. It wasn't a binding commitment to achieving a certain level, but for many years that's what NATO (and Russia) did. But in 2014 Russia annexed Crimea. The deployment of more forces in the Eastern European countries was in response to that. It's still very small numbers (c.4500 soldiers). That's no threat at all to Russia's million-plus army. A lot of Russians seem to think it is but I think Putin thrives on and needs that paranoia.

[quote ThirtyAndfeelingFifty]@GallopingHighRoad

Yes it is because unless they give in we are on our way to ww3. It’s better to give in now and although that is devastating for the Ukraine it’s sadly preferable than the whole world being destroyed in a nuclear war.

Putin is clearly unwell/unstable and he needs to not be backed into a corner . If he wins this he may very well be satisfied with that and stop his campaign. It’s not a given he will go for other countries like some believe[/quote]
Peace in our time?

Russia has just said we can keep the Queen but they will choose our PM for us
And we have posters saying the Queen should accept this and would be hailed as heroic for doing so.

In our own country a handful of Tory Party Members chose the PM, despite the political make up of Scotland, Wales and N Ireland being very different. Then when Johnson prorogued Parliament illegally showed just how much power the Queen actually had. That is different but only to a lesser degree.

It don't know how long it's been known that Putin was an ex KGB man, so it's not as though he was ever sweetness and light and has suddenly changed.I hope that when all this is over that there is a very thorough examination of just how much the Tory Party accommodated Putin and helped to contribute to his actions. I am not holding my breath though.

Okay so I was probably wrong in suggesting that Ukraine will accept those terms.

May I ask what the end game is then?
As Russia won’t give up and neither will Ukraine. So what happens? They just go on like this for years? Until the military are dead on both sides. I don’t understand, surely a compromise has to happen somewhere?

Sorry if I’m being thick, but I just can’t see where this can end?

@ThirtyAndfeelingFifty

The threat of nuclear war is very real. We can’t ignore that just because everyone things that mutually assured destruction will put putin off . That would be assuming he’s 100% ok and I don’t t think he is which makes him likely to act irrationally and we can’t just risk the whole world ??

We should be supporting Ukraine to try to get everyone out who wants to leave and just let Putin have what he wants. He’s too dangerous

Quite aside from the fact that Ukraine belongs to Ukrainians and only they can make the decision to surrender their country, it would only temporarily 'solve' the problem. A wholesale victory will embolden Putin where he might otherwise feel cautious. As things stand, he's seeing that invading a sovereign nation is a difficult and costly thing to do, even if he is totally unmoved by the horrendous human cost on both sides. He's also seen that the west has bigger teeth than I suspect he thought. Were he to, buoyed up by his success of intimidating his way to what he wants, decide to threaten or invade a NATO member, the risk of all-out nuclear war would be much higher in my opinion.

Say, for example, Ukraine surrenders, this would set a precedent for Putin believing that he can take whatever he likes because he can sabre rattle. Then he decides to make moves on a NATO country. The nuclear risk of that scenario would be higher, and Ukraine would have lost its sovereignty.

Nobody can know for sure how far his imperialistic designs stretch, and one could argue that he would stop at Ukraine. My opinion is that his ideal scenario would be to go much further. The question is whether he CAN, because waging war takes resources that Russia is swiftly losing.

There is no risk-free way through this horrible scenario. I think it's naive to think that letting him have Ukraine (and Ukraine is not 'ours' to bargain with) would make the threat of wider conflict go away. It would delay it only.

Lisa O'Carroll @lisaocarroll
Ireland to take 20,000 Ukrainians for every 1m refugees - health minister. More than 600 arrived as of Friday. Ireland has lifted visa barriers since start of invasion. Will also supply medical cards to Ukrainians,vital for elderly and sick.

Meanwhile the UK have had 14,000 applications, 50 visas actually issued and at least one of those 50 temporarily detained. And those are the ones who have managed to get an application in, and aren't talking to the Home Office blokes munching Ready Salted crisps at Calais.

[quote ThirtyAndfeelingFifty]@RedToothBrush you’re quite rude aren’t you ?

I understand the situation perfectly

Sadly though I think there comes a time where someone has to back down for the greater good[/quote]

I'm sorry to say but I think she was quite diplomatic in response to your post.

The terms the Russians have offered are not an opportunity to back down.

It's is a surrender of their autonomy by installing their "puppet" at the head of govt.

This by a regime that has already reneged on promises that it wasn't going to invade Ukraine and on ceasefires to allow civilians to flee.

All in the context of increasing credible evidence that the Russian military campaign is struggling with logistics on the ground, an inability to gain air superiority and no credible way to hold onto Ukraine given levels of resistance in a large territory even if they technically "win".

Add to that the Russian economy is tanked and several sources say they have only months before the whole country runs out of money.

If Ukraine think their forces can hold out then time is arguably on their side, not Russias.

Knowing when to play and when to fold is a real skill and frankly I don't have all the facts, but based on what evidence is available Russia is going to offer something far more palatable before I can see Ukraine accepting a deal - because it's not just about the lives spared today, it's those of the future to and the ability of Ukrainian's people to have political and social autonomy.

That's what they are fighting for and accepting the terms on offer now, they might have well have opened the borders and said to Putin - come on in and get comfy.

@grannysbay

You do realise that this gives Putin control of most of the wheat supplies in Europe? This has implications for many third world countries who are reliant on this.... we can probably afford to buy elsewhere. But its giving Russia more leverage by controlling food prices.

We produce the majority of the wheat we need and buy from Canada.

@FacebookPhotos

ILoveAllRainbowsx I'm English and I agree with dreamingbohemian. The UK choice not to build housing is a pathetic excuse for failing to take our fair share of refugees.

Agreed

@Ijsbear

Once peace is negotiated, Poland should invade the Ukraine.

Then the Ukraine would be part of NATO whistles innocently

Oooh, that's thinking well outside the box. I'm sure they have historic claim to some land.

Russia's demands are exactly what they wanted all along, and would be followed by more once Ukraine had stopped fighting and Russia had a chance to reorganise. Ukraine wants to become a modern European nation. Russia's demands would keep it like Belarus, which has had the same evil president for 26 years - just as Russia likes it.

@DrBlackbird

Kremlin spokesperson being quoted as saying the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot.

Do they believe their own lies?

Also make amendments to their constitution which would reject any aims to enter any bloc.

That suggests it’s about not joining the EU as well as not applying to join NATO. No way Ukraine can agree to that.

Presumably the safe passage corridors lead to Russia, because it is Russia that is generously protecting the civilians of Ukraine from the Nazi thugs?

I think getting in a situation where the west has to call Putin's bluff re nuclear war would be very dangerous. At the moment that is avoidable - and the West is avoiding it by doing everything EXCEPT engage in direct military action with Putin. If Ukraine was pressured into surrendering because people were scared of annoying Putin, then he would know that all he needed to do was threaten nuclear war. And he would keep doing that. That would eventually lead to a situation where we would need to call his bluff (because eventually enough is enough). But at the moment people are panicking that establishing a no fly zone would goad Putin into war - but no-one is going to establish a no-fly zone for that reason. Its just the papers stirring.

BBC Politics @bbcpolitics
"If she cannot tell us where this visa centre is en route to Calais, there is no hope of Ukrainian families being able to find it themselves," says Labour's Yvette Cooper

Priti Patel says "we are setting up" a centre away from the port to prevent a surge

The Super Secret Visa Centre that not even the Home Secretary knows where it is located.

Thats a new one.

During the course of the day we have gone from

No10 admitting there was no visa centre in Calais
4hrs later Priti Patel saying there was.
The media shouting 'oh no theres not'
Patel going 'ok but there will be soon.'
To Patel saying 'actually we are not going to put it in Calais because that would be too convenient and we dont want a magnet for Ukrainian nationals.
To we aren't even going to tell you were this super secret processing centre on the way to Calais is, because despite saying we want to help refugees and make it easier for them, yes we are a bunch of utter lying cunts

I hate them.

I want to ship Patel to Ukraine. And then cancel her nationality on the grounds of national security.

*Ijsbear

Once peace is negotiated, Poland should invade the Ukraine.

Then the Ukraine would be part of NATO whistles innocently

Oooh, that's thinking well outside the box. I'm sure they have historic claim to some land.*

Poland and Ukraine have quite a lot of urrmmm... history.... that they have done a good job of setting aside with this refugee crisis. I don't think stirring it all up with an invasion would end well... (I know the suggestion was light hearted)

@namitynamechange

I think getting in a situation where the west has to call Putin's bluff re nuclear war would be very dangerous. At the moment that is avoidable - and the West is avoiding it by doing everything EXCEPT engage in direct military action with Putin. If Ukraine was pressured into surrendering because people were scared of annoying Putin, then he would know that all he needed to do was threaten nuclear war. And he would keep doing that. That would eventually lead to a situation where we would need to call his bluff (because eventually enough is enough). But at the moment people are panicking that establishing a no fly zone would goad Putin into war - but no-one is going to establish a no-fly zone for that reason. Its just the papers stirring.

I'd rather we didn't call his bluff!

@Branster

"I think we should be agreeing to take in as many Ukrainians as necessary actually.

If they have to make the sacrifice then the rest off the works needs to step up and support them in any way. But not fighting and escalating the correct war that’s not the way forward"

I'm sorry I never get the quoting right...

What about those left behind? What about the people living in countries next in line?

By all means we should support everyone we can as much as we can.

But I expect all Ukrainians would want to live in peace in their own free country. Free to come and go as they please. To live where they want and be welcomed everywhere as free people. It is their right.

Exactly, I agree with you. What would happen to the people who have chosen not to, and haven't been able to, leave Ukraine if Russia succeeds and occupies the country is unthinkable. Putin would not just allow anyone who wants to to leave freely and allow the remaining population to live in anything remotely resembling peace. We cannot ask Ukraine to pay the price for securing peace in the west (and I don't believe that it WOULD achieve lasting peace) in the blood of its people.

Beth Rigby @bethrigby
NEW: @ZelenskyyUa to make “historic address” to MPs tomorrow at 5pm. Screens to be installed overnight and more than 500 headsets will be made available

@namitynamechange I'm sure Poland could offer devolved status. They'd get EU membership too.