Winter 2023

[GloriaSmud]

As we’re a few weeks away from the start of meteorological Winter (1st December), some weather websites have some thoughts on what the weather might have in store for us over the next few months.

The Weather Outlook started very early, in September but October's thoughts are here ~ The Weather Outlook.
And Netweather’s thoughts are here.

They were spot on about the windy hours to be fair, just no mention of rain.

Some warmth over the next few days but also a chance of Sahara sand ~ could be some nice sunrises and sunsets!

Funny was just thinking about Sahara sand yesterday it was so sunny and warm. Would be nice

Only 4°C here this morning.

Mum is Spain and it's boiling she took spring clothes and really needed summer, luckily she is staying with friends so will be able to borrow things.

I'm happy with dry, don't mind cold at this time of the year.

Netweather hint at colder weather arriving in February here.
And the metoffice long range forecast as well....

1st-10th February
The first few days of February are likely to see wet and windy conditions across northern UK, with rain heaviest and most persistent in the northwest. Southern parts will be more settled but often rather cloudy, with some places remaining largely dry. Subsequently continuing changeable with spells of rain at times, but also some drier, brighter interludes. The heaviest and most frequent rain will tend to be across north-western areas and accompanied by periods of strong winds. Further south and east settled periods are likely to be more prevalent, with the best of any sunshine and drier weather here. Temperatures are expected to be milder than average overall, although this doesn't preclude shorter, colder spells at times, with a risk of overnight frost and fog accompanying more settled interludes.

11th-25th February
At first, changeable conditions continue to be most likely, with the wettest and windiest weather often in the north and northwest. Further southeast, it's more likely to be drier although some wet and windy spells are still possible here. Through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions or winds favouring a northerly component. This would increase the chance of some colder spells, with a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times.

Was throwing off the bed covers all night in an unheated bedroom. 14c today they're saying. That's with cloud. They've changed their mind about snow as well🤷‍♀️

It's a sunny 16c here now 😊

A provisional all time UK January record for high temperature was recorded today in Kinlochewe, NE Scotland. 19.2C

I meant to type NW!!!

Wtf? People throwing bedclothes off and 19 degrees in Scotland in January???

It's 8 degrees here right now (as balmy as its going to get) and has been bitter for the last couple of days. My own little corner of NE England has always seemingly had its own micro climate though.

And the temperature climbed further, to 19.6°C. Temperatures there greatly driven by the föhn effect.

"Surprising high UK temperatures: The Foehn or Fohn Effect" https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/9416-surprising-high-uk-temperatures-the-foehn-or-fohn-effect

We're mentioned here in N Wales. Interesting phenomena but dangerous re avalanches

Don't bank on the possible cold spell mid february. There is a huge amount of uncertainty and it could remain mild.

Metoffice long-range forecast reflects that uncertainty....

3rd - 12th February
Changeable conditions at first, with spells of mild, wet and windy weather punctuated by drier, cooler interludes. The northwest is likely to see the heaviest and most frequent or most persistent rain, while the southeast will tend to be drier overall. Largely cloudy with the best of any sunshine in the east. There is a chance colder conditions could then become established more widely during the first full week of February, with increased chance of wintry weather, especially northern and central UK, should Atlantic cloud and rain be forced to track across the south of the country. Equally, similar conditions to the start of the period could well prevail; confidence is low at this range in the weather type which will become most dominant.

13th-27th February
Following on from earlier in the month, either the period will start changeable with temperatures overall around average and a northwest to southeast split in conditions, or colder conditions will have become established, mainly across the north. Either way, through mid-February there is an increasing likelihood of more settled conditions with winds arriving from the north. This would increase the chance of some colder spells, with a greater likelihood of wintry conditions at times, particularly in the north and east.

Thanks for all the updates. I’m over winter now. So whilst I wish for a bit of snow and cold in Dec/Jan (with sunny skies and frosts too). By Feb/March I’m ready for spring (too early I know).

I’d take mild with a but of sun. Helps my heating bills.

Warm and sunny again. We're hoping our bog garden will dry out a bit

It’s endless miserable grey skies here for the foreseeable. I miss the sun!

I ordered some thermals a couple of weeks ago. Just returned them.

So fully expecting sub zero temperatures to kick in again!

Soo cold today fire 🔥 lit

I know that the weather apps are reliably sub-par but mine is showing that there is a chance of snow over the next few hours, while it's 9c.
Is that a thing that can even happen? 🤷

"Norway prepares for biggest storm in 30 years - ABC News" https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/norway-prepares-biggest-storm-30-years-106821761

Looks bad for them. The Faroe islands too.

BBC Weather were just saying that the Faroe Islands have recorded gusts of 150 mph 😳😳😳

It's an extreme storm for sure. Very dangerous.

Current snow radar picture showing the (I believe) snow cyclone over the Faroe Islands and approaching the Danish coastline.

Latest long-range forecast from the metoffice ~ still going for something colder in February, especially from mid-month onwards.....

6th-15th February
Most likely unsettled at first for much of the UK. Turning colder across northern areas with showers, which will turn wintery at times especially over higher ground but to lower levels at times too. Cloud and rain being pushed in from the Atlantic may well be forced to track further south across the south of the country where it may remain milder but with more persistent rain, especially in the west. Exactly where the boundary between these two regimes lies is still rather uncertain at the moment. However, there is a chance of wintery conditions developing more widely across the northern edge of this boundary through the second half of next week for a time.

16th February-1st March
Although there is still some uncertainty by the start of this period is it more probable that conditions will start to become drier and more settled overall for much of the UK with winds from the north. This would increase the likelihood of less mild, or colder conditions developing more widely and increase chance of snow, especially in the north and east.