Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

Forecast doesn't look like a quick thaw in London or Essex.

looks like temps will be okay till xmas, phew.

Seen in Braintree Four joggers running in single file along the middle of the road. Two cars having to go slow behind them flashing their lights.

I don’t care what happens but I just hate waking on the ice which is still yet to melt in certain parts of London. Seems to be at the worst stage now which is frozen solid.

@OhYouBadBadKitten

What are your thoughts on this charming article?

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11548653/New-Met-Office-weather-warning-extends-country-six-inches-snow-way.html

Bit rich that they wrote that one after publishing this one: www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11549923/Arctic-blast-leaves-Britain-bracing-power-cuts-officials-blame-WFH-Met-Office.html in which the government reveals they don't understand forecasts or probability and basic maths.

Morning, amber warning for ice today in east Cheshire. -2 with a real feel of -8 apparently. Can well believe it. Very windy as well. Heavy snow and later rain I think but @OhYouBadBadKitten is more an expert than me!

North Hampshire and for the first time ever I am relieved to see rain, drips, grey sky and frostbitten grass. The frost has gone!

Mind you, I'm already annoyed I can't put laundry out. Looks like mid week will be dryer.

White stuff blowing around in the wind. So bloody cold

It's getting colder again. Rained all night. Not sure if we'll get snow though. Keep safe everyone ❄️❄️

DM just texted me to say snow is on the way again! We are in South east London. Please tell me it’s not true!

Have seen rain today.

Looking at the sky in Essex, I think it's on it's way here too.

We've all also got a lot of wind all week which makes it feel colder. They have forecast snow but in a vague way. Guess we'll have to wait and see

It's moving fast is the snow

Weather app said it's 6c outside. Checked our personal weather station 6.8c. well that's an improvement. Still feeling cold in the wind though

7c outside at 18:15 but still cold in my flat. Flat below is unoccupied so I think that is making a difference - floor feels cold. I hope the warmer temperature outside means less heat loss so once flat is up to a reasonable temperature that it will stay warm longer - thus cost a bit less in heating for the next few days.

Quite a cold wind here, and it's pouring, but all the snow has gone! This morning it was very icy, the temperature gradually rose (I think it's about 4° now - positively balmy compared to earlier in the week!) from about lunchtime.

Went to see a friend
not venturing out for non essentials in an ice rink again - honestly I was very lucky not to break my neck getting up the hill

she was also saying, she thinks these pavements were cleared and gritted in the past.

Not saying friends are non essential, just it was so much worse than I thought...why is it some of us just can't walk on ice at all?

My heating is off and I'm fairly warm here in Cheshire (friends have just left) Who'd have thought it?!

It's such a relief now the extreme cold has gone ! It's been wet here but nothing out of the ordinary so far.

NE Coast of England here. 2 degrees and still lethal snow and ice covered streets. I have to go for an x-ray tomorrow morning. I'm disabled and won't be able to do it unless we get a rapid thaw overnight. I'm on day 13 of Covid (finally testing negative and feeling a bit better - thanks Argentina for your win, and congrats Messi) But the cold. My god, the cold has been penetrating my bones for two weeks now. The minus temps are obviously to blame, but the Covid has possibly exacerbated it two fold.

My poor arthritic body longs for a holiday in the sun.

I hope you can get there tomorrow. Sending warm vibes!

Good morning! It is very dark out there at the moment where I am. Wet and windy.

Tomorrow does generally look like a much drier day once rain clears from Eastern parts with some good sunny spells for many, giving a pleasant feel to the afternoon. Maybe some showers in north western scotland, falling as snow over higher ground.

The theme for the week is unsettled and cooling off, especially more towards the north. Not towards the temperatures we've seen recently thankfully.

Thanks Kitten

OMG 15.7c here this morning. Just been to the shops, the leaves spinning in the wind so Wizard of Oz. It's raining too. I'm going to prepare the conservatory for Xmas lunch on Sunday today a good clean and sort out crockery, cutlery etc while it lasts.
Downside the garden table I was bringing in is soaking wet 🙈