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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 11:54

One thing that I think is prudent, if you are prepping sort of person, is to consider whether you live in an area where pipes burst during thaws. It's going to be a rapid warm up on Sunday, with temperatures rising to 14c on Monday in the south.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 11:55

Poor dog! I can imagine the sad face justasking.

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EmmaAgain22 · 16/12/2022 12:11

The pipe burst thing sounds horrendous.

if there's another horrendously cold spell, I will have to spend it at mum's. I should have done it this time but her internet service is patchy and I had work.

Saturday is the trek to mum's, then Sunday is the only invite I'm likely to have over Xmas so as long as it's not icy, off I go.

ListenLinda · 16/12/2022 12:14

The frost was so hard this morning it looked like it has snowed over night here in Bradford.
Looks as if we could potentially get some snow on Sunday, which I don’t mind as I won’t be going anywhere.

cheshirecatssmile · 16/12/2022 14:03

The frost has been that hard here it's like glass. Despite attempts to keep dogs paws safe, she ran out into the garden and cut her paws.
That's now fun as she now has sore pads and doesn't like people touching them so the pad balm is useless for us.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 16:17

Poor dog Cheshirecat. It is surprisingly sharp out there and hopefully you've helped others avoid this issue, I'm sure you aren't alone.

I've posted a significant update on the Christmas weather thread.

www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4686426-the-annual-mumsnet-christmas-weather-thread

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justasking111 · 16/12/2022 16:18

Friends dog licked water from a shattered frozen puddle. He's cut his tongue badly.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 16:20

I am going to give my cat a stern talking to about not licking frozen puddles!!

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EmmaAgain22 · 16/12/2022 16:51

I didn't think cats would be out in this weather but one of mum's neighbours rang to tell her that a cat was sitting on the doorstep mewing for her.

this cat thinks my mum is her mum. But I felt sad that she was sitting on a pile of icy sludge waiting for her. I think maybe that cat doesn't get enough cuddles at home. I know the other owners and they said their cat isn't friendly!!

DuchessDandelion · 16/12/2022 17:00

My cat keeps demanding I open the front door and then decides it far too cold.

Then does the same with the back door lol

Furries · 16/12/2022 17:15

DuchessDandelion · 16/12/2022 17:00

My cat keeps demanding I open the front door and then decides it far too cold.

Then does the same with the back door lol

Mine has been doing that too. Shouts to go out the kitchen door, stands on the back stoop for 20 seconds and then turns round and stomps back to the heated throw 😂

EmmaAgain22 · 16/12/2022 17:27

DuchessDandelion · 16/12/2022 17:00

My cat keeps demanding I open the front door and then decides it far too cold.

Then does the same with the back door lol

Oh no
poor little cats are just hoping to find warm air anywhere!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 17:56

Mine seems to be on an endless cycle of feed me/give me water/play with me cycle. He gets very bored and destroys things with one eye on me if he isn't entertained enough.

I seem to specialise in Bad Kittens....

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fancyacuppatea · 16/12/2022 18:05

Poor dogs.
@cheshirecatssmile can you put socks on her? or will they turn into a light snack extra trip to the vet?

My cats are indoor only...I suspect they'd love to be outside and stuck to a tree. 🤦‍♀️ They must be related to yours @OhYouBadBadKitten as I can't even go for a wee without taking Dreamies with me to distract them with...that's bad, isn't it? Xmas Blush

DuchessDandelion · 16/12/2022 18:37

EmmaAgain22 · 16/12/2022 17:27

Oh no
poor little cats are just hoping to find warm air anywhere!

Trust me,there's nothing 'poor' about my spoiled felines 😆

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 18:58

fancy we'd best not talk about my cats fascination with me going to the loo at the moment. Xmas Blush

I only wish I could teach him how to crochet or something to keep him busy.

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RafaistheKingofClay · 16/12/2022 18:59

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 16:20

I am going to give my cat a stern talking to about not licking frozen puddles!!

Is he likely to pay attention?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 19:08

RafaistheKingofClay · 16/12/2022 18:59

Is he likely to pay attention?

Probably not, but at least I can then say that I did warn him!

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Creativecake · 16/12/2022 19:24

Temp here in NW now 2 degrees and frost lessened. Chilly wind happening now though

EducatingArti · 16/12/2022 20:24

I seem to live, pretty nearly on the boundary between the met office Sunday eating for snow and ice, vs just ice! Not sure what the implications are of that.
I am really annoyed as I have done a lot of short local journeys this week and was cultivating a beautiful icicle forming from the rear bumper of my car. I needed to do a 20 min motorway journey today and it melted!😁

EmmaAgain22 · 16/12/2022 20:29

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 18:58

fancy we'd best not talk about my cats fascination with me going to the loo at the moment. Xmas Blush

I only wish I could teach him how to crochet or something to keep him busy.

my ex's cat used to do this to me. When I stayed over, I had the cat on my lap, or she wanted to be carried, and she followed me to the loo. I just gave up and let her in. She used to wait for my ex when he was showering, in a sort of "how dare you do something that doesn't involve me" kind of way.

he lived in a flat so I don't know what she thought of the outside world, but she was a rescue and I don't think she wanted to go outside.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 16/12/2022 21:24

EducatingArti · 16/12/2022 20:24

I seem to live, pretty nearly on the boundary between the met office Sunday eating for snow and ice, vs just ice! Not sure what the implications are of that.
I am really annoyed as I have done a lot of short local journeys this week and was cultivating a beautiful icicle forming from the rear bumper of my car. I needed to do a 20 min motorway journey today and it melted!😁

That would be super annoying!

Dont take the boundary as gospel, it's a best estimate/judgement call. See it as a fuzzy, moveable line.

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fancyacuppatea · 17/12/2022 07:11

I'd love it if my cats could crochet. I can't - all thumbs!
Cold out there again - just been to the wheelie bin, which miraculously isn't frozen shut. Xmas Grin

cheshirecatssmile · 17/12/2022 07:48

It's sleeting 🙌🏻🙌🏻
But heavy snow forecast later. Apparently.
Got so many jobs to do that involves going various places today so weather better behave itself

InMySpareTime · 17/12/2022 07:49

First precipitation for a week in Manchester and of course it went straight to rain.

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