Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

@InMySpareTime I was about to say the same!

DS just got home from the club he works in, waited on the bus at Piccadilly and said there was rain - but it's weird as a lot of the cars still have frosty windscreens and the grass in our garden is still frosty.

Lost heating again and loft (where boiler is ) is -0.5 so I'm going to leave it to warm up naturally and slowly as I'm a bit worried about the pipes 😬. Will have a go at resetting the boiler this afternoon as it's forecast to be 5 degrees and I'm hoping that will defrost the condensate ? Currently is -7....

Remedial pipe work happening in the new year ! Next time we have a cold snap like this I will be prepared !!

On the plus side my dog who won't walk in rain or wind absolutely adores this weather so we'll go for a trip to a national trust trip later , once dd rouses herself !

@OhYouBadBadKitten when you talk about pipes bursting with rapid thaw, do you mean the ones that run outside (eg garden tap?). My loft was 0.5 from about 2am, presumably this won't have frozen the pipes solid? And it's a gradual thaw today, once it gets to about 2/3 degrees up there I thought I'd open the loft hatch to warm it a bit more (from an unheated house )before I attempt to reset the boiler ?

Any advice from anyone very appreciated! It's been enough losing heating several times let alone a burst pipe !

Sorry loft was minus 0.5 .

I'll shut up now!

I was thinking about pipes in general Melon. I expect if that's the first time your loft has got down to tht temperature this cold spell, it should be fine. Are your pipes lagged in the loft?
Make sure you know where your stopcock is though and that you can turn it on and off. Always good to know!

I think there may well also be some burst water mains too that may have only partially frozen

That's true they are lagged yes. Thank you! I'm just going to try and be patient and not heat things up too quickly today just in case.

Just in case the worst happens for anyone. Advice on what to do if a pipe bursts.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/seasonal-advice/your-home/frozen-or-burst-pipes

I wonder if I've confused people after reading what you've said melon by implying that the speed of a thaw makes a difference. It doesn't, except that I guess if lots of pipes all burst around the same time, it's going to be difficult to get a plumber and stretch resources of water companies and their ability to help.

I see that there's been a big pipe burst in Camden. www.hamhigh.co.uk/news/23197432.burst-water-main-floods-800m-belsize-lane-south-hampstead/

Another thought melon are they central heating pipes or water pipes? If water pipes, if your water pressure coming out of your taps seems the same as usual, it's almost certainly fine.

Hmm well they are the pipes leading to and from the boiler... can you tell I'm a bit clueless! They are all lagged though so hopefully won't have frozen at -0.5 jut for a few hours .

-3 outside here now , feel like I should open the Christmas bubbly when we hit 1!

Trying to snow here in east Cheshire. It's warmed up a tiny bit. Had some rain and sleet earlier

Many areas seeing frozen surfaces again today. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-17

Tomorrow the risk of ice increases temporarily where rain, sleet and freezing rain hit frozen surfaces. Please keep an eye on conditions in your area and especially if it rains while your temperature is around 0C beware!

This week sees a real battle ground between very mild air and cool-to very cold air. Areas in NE Scotland appear to have little respite from the snowy cold conditions. Full update later - bit of a manic day coming up. (if only I'd got out of bed earlier. )

I was a bit puzzled by the pipe thawing comment, yes.

the main problem in London - and I presume other places - is they got rid of so many people doing practical jobs - so now weather conditions like a thaw are a "problem". Drain maintenance is no longer a thing either.

nonetheless, I am eagerly awaiting the thaw - and not looking forward to navigating the roads around mum.

It is as pipes thaw that bursts become apparent.

Amber warnings for freezing rain tomorrow.
Dont travel in that area during the warning period. Prepare for potential powercuts.

I've created a specific thread for tomorrows weather
www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4699796-amber-warning-for-freezing-rain-on-sunday
It could probably do with a bump or two please.

All sorts of warnings for rain, snow and ice over the next few days. The winter wonderland (or tortuous cold depending on view point) will be over for most this weekend for the time being.

Pavements and roads lethal in tameside. Black ice

Deeply unpleasant beenrumbled

Its quite easy to miss the rain warnings along the south coast. Monday into tuesday.

This could be a very wet week coming up in southern England. GFS throws an awful lot of rain this way.

Snow in Essex still fucking horrendous.

Nearly gone Emma by Monday morning there won't be a trace.

There's so much of it, it's hard to believe. I'm glad of it but bit surprised to see it as mum's neighbours told me the road was okay to deal with now - it really isn't. I was very lucky to get a cab at the station as it wasn't walkable and even the cabbie was horrified when he pulled into mum's road.

Warm and cosy here finally. Couldn't get heating going until late afternoon but I'm so grateful for it now!! Had a hot bath and now I'm having a baileys. Tomorrow all sorts of sports matches to attend which is going to be grim but I can bear it knowing I can go back to a warm house !!