Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

We do seem to have stepped back to November!

www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_jfm_v1.pdf The met office have released their 3 monthly contingency outlook.

They say it is most likely to be a pretty average 3 months coming up overall, leaning a little towards milder wetter conditions than average. That of course hides variability within each of the months. The met office do also mention the increased chance, compared to usual of January being colder than usual (but still an over all probability of it being average).

Or presumably seasons and that winter = cold weather and some very cold periods which will lead to higher gas usage.

I can only assume the Met Office presumed that this was so obvious it didn’t need explaining over the summer when everyone else was stocking up on gas.

OH boxing Day dump of snow?

Yikes. I’ve got to travel halfway across the country on Boxing Day.

@OhYouBadBadKitten will have a better idea. Other forecast isn't this dramatic

I mentioned that run www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4686426-the-annual-mumsnet-christmas-weather-thread

It's not very well supported. The model run after that, the 12z run does show rain moving northwards bumping into cold air, but places that snow risk in northern England and then Scotland (with rain behind it to a certain extent).

Its something to keep an eye on, but its early days and there's a lot of uncertainty.

I'm dismayed to see just how bad the burst pipes issue is, both mains pipes across the SE and friends houses that have been badly damaged. In my town alone I cycled past what looked to be two burst water mains. We just aren't prepared in this country for dealing with weather extremes.

@OhYouBadBadKitten - I’ve seen two burst pipes locally recently (which don’t appear to be fixed either).

I think in this country we do need to get used to dealing with severe weather but also sudden extreme weather.

Years ago we had snow at certain times, we all knew the drill, salt/gravel boxes were around for salting the roads and pavements, people shovelled snow etc. Now we seem to have gone backwards in our response to snow.

I heard kids weren’t being allowed out to play in a snowy icy school playground near me, I can confidently state as a child we were not harmed playing in a snowy icy playground!

I agree Gonna. It is expensive to upgrade and repair infrastructure, but the alternative is sudden major damage, people without water, or being able to travel etc. Our country needs to invest in resilience - especially with regards to climate change.

Our local primary schools seem to be good at encouraging children out to play in snow. Thankfully.

I'm not sure we do resilience. There's no slack on the system so when it breaks, it really breaks.

Was nice walking home today, pleasantly cold and damp but still warm in my coat.

I've only just read about the burst pipe issue in the SE. That's mental. I wonder if the water mains are buried deeper in Scotland? I don't remember this really happening up here after proper cold spells. Is it because of clay soil? Is it because Scottish water is still in public ownership?
Bleugh weather currently. Hit 14c on Monday, wavering around 7c now. Maybe snow for boxing day.

I think it is worse where there is clay soil. A lot of shrinkage this summer, then all the rain in November. Then the freeze. But the scale is quite shocking. Water companies are also not delivering water in nearly enough quantities in accessible places for customers to get to, exacerbating the issue.

@OhYouBadBadKitten I'm just reading a bit about the current weather situation in the States. a "Weather bomb". The temperatures sound scary .

"The NWS has called it a once-in-a-generation winter weather event, especially as the storm reaches the Great Lakes region, where its pressure is expected to reach the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane."

And freezing temperatures as far south as Texas and Florida.

I know it's a bit of a complicated question, but will the predicted weather over the pond have an impact on us? I don't necessarily mean we will mirror the situation, but is it more like the situation with Atlantic hurricanes or extra tropical storms or waves by the time the get to us which can influence our patterns when they track in the right direction?

been I have heard this rumour too and came on to say that and ask what Kitten thought.

but I also heard snow from Boxing Day and no forecast is showing that for London. The radio likened it to Beast from the East, which was nothing compared to what we just had?

hopefully it's all crap.

sorry beenrumbled I didn't see this yesterday. It's a good question. The weather in the States is being driven by a weak jet stream with great big loops in it, allowing polar air to flood down over the US continent. This same jet stream has been influencing our weather too, as it always does. So we got stuck in that very cold pattern we had. Now we are going to be seeing it meander over us, bringing generally mild unsettled weather, but nothing especially wild in terms of storms. Much of continental Europe looks set to be on the warm side of jet stream and so looks mild.

For the last three decades my old friend and I have joshed about the weather. She's in NY state USA. when extreme weather hits she messages me and says this is you in 10 days. Ditto heatwaves. She's rarely wrong 😂

Woken up to snow again. NE Scotland. Most of the last lot had melted in the mild temperatures of the last week. Was hoping that was it!

My husband is reporting having read somewhere that the weather in North America is likely to move its way over here and snow is likely for the whole of January. Now, I have no idea where he read this, if it was a bona fide weather report or some conspiracy theorist. Anybody else seen any suggestion of this ?

My NY friend appears to be off the grid, not like her. But they are geared up for this type of weather. Ireland tends to cop the brunt when it crosses then Wales. The wind direction has a lot to do with it though

shinynewapple22 There is absolutely nothing in the models to suggest this. The weather will ease off in the States later this week. This isn't a case of a strong jet stream bringing stormy weather across the atlantic. This was a very weak and wobbly jet stream allowing displaced polar air to spill into the States.

justasking the weather in NY was a (hopefully!) once in a generation type thing, so I'm not surprised that your friend is off grid. The stories from there are awful.

They used to live in Minnesota, so are pretty savvy, oil lamps, wood burning stoves, snow blower for the three dogs needs. They're preppers and bookworms.

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten - glad to hear it .

Thats good justasking

I fear we may be going into a very wet and potentially stormy time unfortunately.