Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

I nearly cried today as it was like bloody lockdown flashback

but then I pulled myself together as I can actually pay my bills

my numpty cousin - in a very high academic post, with zero common sense - has been saying she doesn't understand why mum can't leave the house. I think some people have actual brain block where elderly are concerned.

weirdly, she can compute that it's risky for me, but not mum. WTAF.

Weather app seems to think it's -6 here already, feels like it!! 🥶🥶🥶

BBC is forecasting snow for us over Christmas, which would be lovely but I’m sure it will change! We’re in the north east.

Same here

Ooh and us!

One more day folks .... never thought I'd be glad to see rain on the forecast !

Very heavy snow here in Central belt of Scotland. Amber warning issued.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-16 the warning that Belinda mentions. I'm a little uncertain why this one warranted an amber when similar snow amounts in the SE England didn't, other than the Met Office are more certain that it will cause significant impacts this time round.

That isn't by the way a post to say that it's not that bad in the central belt, but rather to say that issuing Met Office warnings can be complex and somewhat subjective. There is as Belinda says, a lot of snow falling there currently and given that Glasgow is in the warning area, the potential impact in a densely populated city could be high.

Next week looks like a real battleground between cold air and warm air.

In the meantime this is what UKV forecasts in terms of snow tomorrow morning. Sunday in next post so I can fit in enough photos.

I love rain. ☔

@Belindabelle take care. x

Sunday could be 'interesting'.
-5.5C here (Leicester) this morning.

WE'VE GOT SNOW!
Sorry for shouting, but there's a couple of inches here in Fife lying and more to come by the look of the sky. Christmas shopping in Edinburgh has been postponed but I'm off for a walk along the beach instead.

then snapshots for Sunday with accompanying 2m temperatures. Pink is snow, blue and green rain, but what it doesn't show is where freezing rain may fall. Don't take these timings shown as gospel, weather fronts can advance faster or slower than forecast.

Freezing rain occurs when snow falls through a layer of warmer air, before then passing through cold air again. This will be the situation in some areas on Sunday. Please, please keep an eye on met office warnings, forecasts and the conditions at the time. Id very cautiously suggest that the highest risk for this is in northern england and the Midlands, but this may change, even on the day. Freezing rain can be very dangerous and many people may be intending to travel home from universities, or to family and friends this weekend.

I would highly, highly recommend that in reading the above, remember that I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist, with access to lots of data and training. Please don't make safety decisions based on what I say, but do keep an eye on the Met Office carefully and tune into local media and services for on the ground weather conditions in your area.

Eccellent.

I mean excellent!

I forgot the graphic that I found from weather.gov that explains freezing rain along warm fronts fairly well.

We had rain during the night, now all over FB warnings of black ice even on main roads heavily gritted oh and it's sooo cold this morning

Oh no justasking! Thats grim.

Been for a daunder down the beach. Funny to see snow on the sand.

Blimey, that looks cold.

The met office have refined their warnings for Sunday. Freezing rain is now mentioned for the Pennines upwards as a possibility, along with the potential for blizzards further north.

In the south it looks more as though the risk will be more around rain falling onto frozen surfaces. Though there may be some temporary snowfall to start with.

Ironically personally this event will give me my best chance of snowfall of this cold spell. I'd best make the most of it.

London still showing temps that won't melt the pavement ice - all the way to Sunday now. Any other London/Essex folks got that?

And that will be part of the problem Emma rain falling onto ice even in central London.

If I were someone who had a choice of when to do weekend out and about jobs, I would definitely choose tomorrow, rather than Sunday to do them.

OH keeps a Ball thrower in the back of the car. Went to lob ball for dog this morning ball frozen to plastic holder so the whole lot sailed through the air landed on the stony beach and broke. Poor dog