Winter Weather outlook

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

I am a bit edgy about winter being cold. The bushes are heaving with berries.

At the moment, the majority of models point towards it being a mild winter. We shall see if that remains the case.

huh. Well that outlook didn't last long at all, signals of a blocked November/December which could lead to still, cold weather. Depending on where any blocking high pressures ended up, this could be a sunny cold scenario or a dull cold scenario (disastrous for renewables) or potentially at times a winter precipitation scenario.

This is from the met office blog:

I’ve just read somewhere that Europe are expecting a slightly colder than normal winter. It was on something about energy shortages.

Oooo following with interest. We have horses. I hate wind and rain and despise snow and ice. I want a calm winter, not too cold, not too wet and not too windy.

That ties in with a blocked scenario Arse where mild westerlies don't make inroads.

Of course this outlook only covers the first half of winter, but from an energy point of view it could be bad news. Still, it is just an outlook and more useful at this point for energy planners and those who rely on long term weather for their businesses than for general public at this point.

Thanks Kitten
hoping for a mild one.

Mild is fine. We need rain though.

Just found this thread. Thanks OYBBK.

No problem Rafa and Emma.

The ECMWF seasonal model is showing the potential for blocking high pressures through November-January. This is not good from the point of view of saving energy.

Arse.

We could really do with renewables that cover this sort of weather then. <Sigh>

And insulation, lots of insulation.

Watching with interest.

Weather Outlook

I always find the Weather Outlook summaries interesting.

TWO summaries are interesting. I'd like them to split it up more though, as there are some indications that it might be a winter of two halves, with the first half being colder than the second half. La Niña does tend to favour a front loaded winter - though we didn't see evidence of that last year.

Hopping on to say hi, and thank you! Will watch with interest.

Exactly this, very noticeable that there are more berries than usual this year. I think it will be a colder winter.

We had snow last November. That was not normal.

I wouldn't say it wasn't normal Blackeyed on the whole, though perhaps in your area it wasn't. You are right, there was a cold spell late november and early December, with some snow, but it was quite stormy at times too, with Arwen and then Barra.

The acorn crops here are amazing. An omen of a cold winter they used to say. Sloes a bumper crop too.

We've so many windfarms in Wales, they were idle a lot last winter, it's going to throw a big spanner in the works if it's the same thing this winter

First snowfall and the Christmas trees are up in Rovaniemi, Lapland.

Christ I hope so, I've fully had it with this mild weather.

Oo Gloria, let's go! 🛷🛷🛷

My dear Finnish friend has just sent me a video of deep snow at her Lapland holiday home. Winter is arriving!

Crazy warm here (Chilterns) today, 19 in the shade... feels wrong.

Forecasts are looking cooler from next week. I’m really hoping we get some cooler, more seasonal weather. Is that looking likely? The mildness for this time of year is a bit terrifying, feels quite ominous.

Unfortunately two models are showing warmth returning mid November. We obviously can't forecast that far ahead with any uncertainty, but I am regardiing them with mild alarm.