We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

It’s currently chucking I down where I live.

Its very humid again today in Cambridgeshire. Temp isn't too high but 75% humidity is tiring. So warm at night still.

Whats this about another heatwave potentially @OhYouBadBadKitten ?

Where are you?

Following with interest! We managed to dodge the heatwave by being in Devon on the coast. In the middle of house renovations so could do without anything too extreme.

Manchester is predictably wet, the rain has stopped for long enough for me to empty the saucers under my pots.
The grass is definitely greener here, tough a fair amount of it is probably moss.

North of England.

So humid in the South. No real rain to speak of. I’ve also heard (from amateur Facebook weather guy) that we may get some high heatwave temperatures next Wednesday. So watching this.

Thanks for keeping us updated @OhYouBadBadKitten

@OhYouBadBadKitten thanks for the new thread and updates

Checking in again thanks for the new thread!

Loitering. These threads are really interesting as well as helpful. Thanks OYBBK.
Pretty desperate for a hint of rain here (Herts).

It is pretty desperate in terms of the rainfall situation in the drought dominated areas.

There does seem to be some growing model consensus for very warm/hot weather next week as high pressure looks set to return. The GFS has come back with another wildcard run of 40c by next weekend. At the moment, it is an outlier run and therefore unlikely to happen, but there will be come concern given what happened in July.

I'm so used to leaving my washing out overnight now (Hampshire). I don't even worry about looking at the weather. Its not good is it.

OBBYK when I see these threads, my brain sings "I wanted to be with you alone/and talk about the weather". Hopefully you know the song and don't think I'm a nutter! 😂

I am wondering if the humidity will drop. Also wondering what it will be like up North as I am hoping to see a friend but I have the experience of trains being slow due to heat, then there's strikes, so not sure.

Currently raining but warm, 25 degrees and very humid, jungle like humidity. It's actually pretty dry here but only lived here 3 years so can't comment on whether this long term normal.

Thank you for the new thread, Kitten. Much appreciated.

I’ve popped back again as noticed the models starting to predict another heatwave and can see OYBBK has helpfully posted!

It is a bit of a worry - even the outlier 40 now starts to make me jumpy. It’s the hot nights I just find really unbearable and can remember that august when we had a sustained run of hot nights and days and I think it was actually worse on a personal level than the recent 2 days very high heat!

I do the same @megletthesecond .

Thats very funny @EmmaH2022 it should start to feel less humid in a couple of days or so thankfully.

The models do show it getting warmer further north too and generally drying out up there.

Rained pretty much constantly here in Cheshire from 7pm yesterday until around 11am today. Really warm, again now though.

Could do with a spell of settled high pressure, I've had to brace all the pots against the gusty wind now they're quite bushy and top-heavy.
A good spell of warm sunshine will ripen my tomatoes up nicely too.

I so don't want another hot spell! The current humidity is hard going, but at least we aren't dried to tinder by the sun!

I'd cope better in dry heat. This humidity is just euuuugghh.

OBBYK thank you!

Rained significantly in the true north east over the last few days and it's been rather cold on a night. Hoping we get some sun as it will be over my birthday

Yes I said on a number of the other threads at the time of the high temps that actually they were fairly bearable because the humidity was so low, it measured around 30% on our little clock thing

Even though the temperatures are cooler now, the humidity is much higher and its unbearable for me, Im tired, headachey, achey, sweating like no ones business.

I dont like any hot weather but the difference is quite striking

i miss living by the sea. Or being somewhere that nice to be outside (markets south of france for instance). Suburbia England is no fun