We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

I think i will cry if temps the week after next are still high 😪

It involves mental prep

it is much hotter than they said I think - or is it just the flat - and I am really irritable.

my sister thinks it's worse than 2018 - I don't think it is though?

I am enjoying today and dreading the next two weeks.

If five days of 40+ did happen - well everything would just collapse wouldn't it?

not is it really two weeks?

argh.

Locally it was around 2-3c warmer than the forecast today.

Dont look too far ahead yet there is model divergence for what happens after 14th. In the mean time it looks like we've some uncomfortable temperatures to come towards the end of the week and through next weekend.

By Thursday the met office forecast an exceptional fire risk index. Please, please do take good care.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/fire-severity-index

By Thursday the met office forecast an exceptional fire risk index. Please, please do take good care.

There's a fire on Salisbury Plain for the third time in as many weeks today. This one is very near Stonehenge.

More move into exceptional FSI.

Thank you so much for all this amazing information OYBBK 💕

In West Yorkshire so things are still cool and green, but dreading any long term high temperatures 😔

You're welcome @hoochyhag

So I'm afraid it looks like the heat will build through this week, peaking in the mid 30s. It might be peoples instinct to not think that is too bad, but remember the previous high record was 38.7c. On that day, most locations didn't get above the mid 30s at most.

Because we've breached 40c now, there's a risk that people won't take temperatures in the mid to high 30s as seriously as they ought. This time we look to get a string of days in the 30s.

We should treat this in a similar manner as to our last heatwave: slow down, watch for signs of heat exhaustion, don't do high intensity activities, check on vulnerable neighbours and relatives. My new personal one is to check my compost heap to make sure it isn't over heating.

GFs, remember this is only one model and one run of this model currently, suggests a brief cool down around Tuesday 16th August, but then shows heat returning later that week.

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten - I'm dreading it but I think knowing is better than it being a surprise.

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten for your updates.

Do you know why there is no weather warning issued this time? Temps in certain parts of the country look like they will be fairly similar to the first day of extreme heat in July

I'm not sure @LovingKent You are right, that some will see vsimilar temperatures to the July heatwave and that local records look quite likely to be broken.

Once the criteria for heatwave has been met for a day then areas will go into a level 3 heatwave. That's seperate from the Met Office colour coded warnings.

I think a yellow or amber warning may be issued for central areas of the SW for later in the week but it wouldn't warrant a red warning. The warnings are impact based rather than criteria based and I think it looks like the heat might be challenging for those in the SW who tend to have more moderated levels of warmth.

I see. Thanks for clarifying that 😊

Well, my mum coped fine with the garden visit.

she also thought it was cooler than they said. I didn't. I swear, living in a hot place changes you and you just feel hot all the time.

the grass in the garden though....yikes.

Hi all and especially @OhYouBadBadKitten, thanks so much for making these threads! As the temperature forecast is rising inexorably over the next few days I thought I'd come and find the 'hottest' thread again, pun intended!

Yes I do agree that because we've had those 40'C temperatures, suddenly 33 doesn't seem that hot, but it really is. I'm very glad I invested in thermal blackout curtains for our west-facing rooms, they really have cut the heat a lot. I'm in the W. Midlands and we really need rain, I'm not too bothered about my excuse for a 'lawn' - which is more weeds than grass - but I have a lot of container plants and those are struggling.

Hope everyone manages to stay cool over the next couple of weeks.

Yes I do agree that because we've had those 40'C temperatures, suddenly 33 doesn't seem that hot, but it really is. I'm very glad I invested in thermal blackout curtains for our west-facing rooms, they really have cut the heat a lot. I'm in the W. Midlands and we really need rain, I'm not too bothered about my excuse for a 'lawn' - which is more weeds than grass - but I have a lot of container plants and those are struggling.

That's a very good point about 33 not seeming as hot now we've had 40! But yes it's ridiculously hot for this country. I used to be able to cope with heat but the peri menopause has well and truly clobbered me!! I can't even stand 2 minutes in direct sunlight any more!

We are also in the West Midlands and no rain on the horizon. Our lawn is yellow and crispy dry!

I'm glad we invested in blackout curtains too. They are brilliant.

I used to be able to cope with heat but the peri menopause has well and truly clobbered me!! I can't even stand 2 minutes in direct sunlight any more!

I do sympathise! I went through the hot flushes some years ago and it was during a hot summer in a portacabin with no insulation! Absolutely dreadful. Thankfully now not flushing anymore, I found wheat is my trigger so avoid it. However I don't cope well with heat now due to hypothyroidism and find it knocks me sideways.

The good thing is it's still relatively cooling down overnight in the next few weeks

Remember now last thread we talked about the impact of extreme heat on infrastructure? St Thomas' and St Guys lost their core IT systems due to the heat. This has had a major impact on all the workings of the hospitals, including things like chemotherapy and patient records. The issues are still on going.

We just aren't ready for climate change at all. Climate scientists have been shouting about needing to prepare for decades and yet we still have aging infrastructure that does not have the resilience to cope.

www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/07/chaos-after-heat-crashes-computers-at-leading-london-hospitals

The GEFS ensembles are finally showing a change to more useable weather from around the 15th. Perhaps even with some rain for the south.

Of course no one will want it then as everyone will have just resigned themselves for it being summer forever and arranging outdoor parties and whatnot.

Yes Kitten
I wish they'd put resources into preparing for it instead of pretending they can reverse it.

very hot in London at 9am I thought, but might just be the heat has got into my blood! Also, high pollen today, feels like.

Very sobering.

Oh my god, that would be so exciting if the heat stops next week!

It is for this reason that I believe the Internet will be one of the first major systems to collapse in the coming climate chaos. It’s become too big and unwieldy and consumes massive amounts of energy that will be far less readily available without burning the furniture to keep things going.