We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

Thresholds are here, along with the likelihood of meeting them. Level 3 alerts are issued when the criteria has been met for one day, one night and the following day has a 90% or greater chance of also meeting the threshold.

Link is www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal

The search for rain goes on. Looking at the ensembles, when we do shift to a more rainy pattern for the south, there are hints of it being in the form of thundery downpours. That's pretty much speculation on my part though.

I've just ordered a 15 m syphon system to redirect our shower/bath water into water butts. I grow a lot of food and don't want to waste clean water watering the greenhouses.
Our hosepipe ban began today.

Thank you, the regional variation in threshold is interesting. They must be delicate up north!

ouch! @Ylfa Means they cope with harsh winter conditions better.
It does rather put to bed the idea that just because it gets really hot in one part of the world, everyone should be able to cope with the heat.

Yes of course! I enjoy the warmer weather but I’m deeply stomach-churningly anxious about climate change and its impacts upon human and animal health, plant life and our ability to grow food and so on. Very true about winter, it’s harder to acclimate to low temperatures than high I think. If you are lucky you can slow down in the heat, be active at the extremes of the day. When it’s cold it’s just not survivable unless you can afford heating and insulation and lots of layers and hot food.

Ooo, does that comment mean the northerners can come back at you with "You're a bit nesh?"

(No skin in the game as happily a midlander and classed as north or south or neither depending on which measures people use and possibly nesh and delicate)

people and infrastructure adapt to their usual climate. I know inner city/town centre/urban terraces/concrete deserts suffer worse than leafy suburbs and countryside.

Pity the poor facing one way flat dwellers who do not have a cool side to.retreat to nor can get a through draught... @EmmaH2022

Nesh is a great word, new to me but apt. I’m really trying to change my attitude to (fear of) the cold and sort of Wim Hof it a little. Do have Raynauds tho.

@MintJulia would you mind linking the siphon thing you bought? I have been looking for something like this.

Battling kidney disease so very much hoping this will be the last spell of very hot weather for the year 🤞🏼really hard for me in the heat.
worked out today I’ve not cut my grass in 6 weeks! 😟 shows how little rain there’s been.

I was born and live in the south, and love cold weather. Really doesn't bother me at all. Hot weather on the other hand 🥵 I've got Graves' Disease (overactive thyroid, one of the symptoms is overheating) and although I'm on medication, I've been really struggling in the last week or so. Cooler here today, and a cooler still breeze. My office has retained a lot of the heat from a few weeks ago, and the tube and trains have been unbearable. It's making me feel ill 🙁

Solidarity with the Graves, I’m in remission and never had the heat intolerance but it made me very miserable in other ways. Hope the treatment is helping.

Thank you. I was feeling so much better until the hot weather hit!

Can you post a link please?

Am now in South Wales. It's 21, sunny with a fresh breeze. Feels like paradise compared to recent insane heat and humdity 😍

colouring how green is that valley!

That is so beautiful @colouringindoors !

The gloom of more heat. I feel like I check the weather app at least once an hour - no idea why it never seems to change.
I miss cold. I love being cold.

Thanks.. Am so appreciating it. It's near Llansteffan in Carmarthenshire.

Those who follow weather related content on social media will be seeing a lot of exclamatory comments about one of the GEFS ensemble members (out of 31) which shows five days in a row of 40+c in the latest set of runs.

Please don't be worried about the likelihood of this happening. It's extremely remarkable in terms of modelling, but the actual likelihood of this happening is very, very unlikely indeed. Temperatures are much more likely to be in the low to mid 30s.

Thanks Kitten
are they saying that for next week? I'll stick with guessing at low 30s!

I am definitely a summer person, so finding it a bit weird to keep looking at the forecast and hoping for some rain!

North Essex coast - everything is so dry. Was surprised to get an email from our water supplier to say that they don’t anticipate bringing in any restrictions.

Have hardly watered the garden. Have left all established shrubs to fend for themselves. A few pots get rotated to stand in a very shallow paddling pool. And my roses have been watered every 2-3 weeks, which is way less than they should be!

It is clear that health conditions have a big impact on surviving hot or cold weather and which is worse.

DS booked into football camp on the two hottest days. Bloody Murphy and his laws!

For the next few days, enjoy the fresher air and focus on getting temperatures down in your homes. From Tuesday things warm warm up. How warm? Probably back up to the high 20s, low 30s by Wednesday and perhaps warming further, especially in the SW during Thursday and Friday.

Those ridiculous temperatures were for next weekend onwards. The ensembles seem to be very split into whether very hot air is advected northwards over us from Europe, or whether it isn't. So although in this latest run there's nothing that is as extreme, there are a whole range of solutions from low to mid 20s to high 30s from the week 13th onwards. Best not to look that far ahead because I simply do not know yet.

On a slightly different note, the Perseus Meteor shower is set to peak on the 11/12th so make the most of any warm clear night skies to do a bit of meteor spotting this week and next week.

Enjoy your weekend!

Thanks Kitten
very hot for 9am in London - they've undercooked the temps I reckon.

doing a garden visit with mum (83) tomorrow. Bit of a worry!

I can only pray they are wrong about the following week. I have never looked forward to the autumn. How things change!

I'm in a blissful haven at the moment. Temperatures are still only 18c outside, 23 inside. Everything flung open to get outside in.