Storm Eunice

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

This thread covers the expected severe weather on Friday - named Storm Eunice by the met office. At the moment there is great uncertainty, so the met office have put out a very wide yellow weather warning. It looks likely that some regions within the warning area will see gusts of 60-70mph inland, with a small chances of inland gusts above 80mph. The storm also carries the potential for some blizzards, but again there is currently considerable uncertainty.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-02-18

A separate thread exists for Storm Dudley which is expected Wednesday/Thursday.
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/weather/4481213-Storm-Dudley

Oh no. I live beside the sea in Brighton. I hate the storms

There isn't too much to add to this mornings thoughts. Some model runs are still showing very little in the way of a storm, others are showing a very devastating one, somewhere between the Midlands and the channel. There should be a better handle on it tomorrow hopefully.

No changes to the met office warnings yet as a result of the uncertainty.

Several years ago, we really would not have known about this storm until much closer to the time and there would have been little time to prepare.

Thank you for thread 🙂

No problem at all. If only work didn't keep interfering with model watching time.

I think there might be a bit of a trend to bring the storm a little way further south this evening. The next set of runs, later this evening are traditionally called the pub runs. They have a tongue in cheek reputation of bringing in quite wild solutions for winter weather. It will be interesting to see what they do, if I can stay awake that long.

The Environment Agency are warning of a tidal surge along the Severn and Wye estuaries
www.gov.uk/government/news/environment-agency-warns-communities-along-severn-and-wye-estuaries-to-prepare-for-flooding-from-storm-eunice

I'm slap bang in the Midlands, so looks like we're getting the tail end of both storms. I'm out for a girlie night on Friday, probably won't bother doing my hair 😅

@oybbk i have to drive all the way up the A1 Friday and wind speeds are not looking nice. If I leave at about 6am will I be ok?

Ventusky is forecasting snow for Friday. In the North, Midlands and east Anglia

Hoping to fly from Edinburgh to Belfast on Friday. Do you think it will be cancelled?

I'm loathe to say colouring in part because we still don't know exact timings or locations of the storm.

This looks bad

potentially, but still not nailed down. It may still slide through the channel or not develop as deeply as it might.

I’m not liking the look of Friday here in the Midlands. Actual temperature 0c. Fells like -12c! Plus snow.

I'd probably entirely ignore apps at the moment. They all use single models as far as I'm aware and al, the models are saying something that varies from subtly different to wildly different.

I'd say this has enough potential to look to plans if possible. It's not going to be nailed down until quite late - but that doesn't give some people enough time to change their plans?

I would be building flexibilty in if I could at this point!

It is unusual to have named storms quite so back to back

We had Ciara and Dennis in 2020, a week apart, also in February. I I remember because caused two races I was entered in to be cancelled as actual events but they could be run virtually (ie anywhere and send tracker proof) Something that was a novelty then!

We've only had named storms since 2014, so it's (at least) twice in 8 years that they've been this close, so perhaps not so unusual?

It's why I always think Feb half-term holidays feel risky (although still have had quite a few) with more potential for travel delays.

Place marking. Thanks OP for sharing your storm knowledge

Place marking. Friday is the last day of our half term and were planning a trip in to London. Might have to rejig plans (again!)

@AuntieStella

It is unusual to have named storms quite so back to back

We had Ciara and Dennis in 2020, a week apart, also in February. I I remember because caused two races I was entered in to be cancelled as actual events but they could be run virtually (ie anywhere and send tracker proof) Something that was a novelty then!

We've only had named storms since 2014, so it's (at least) twice in 8 years that they've been this close, so perhaps not so unusual?

These are literally one day apart.

What are your favourite sites for tracking upcoming events (for the much lower down the understanding order than you)OYBBK? I've ended up on Netweather as my default and I can never remember how or if it's actually reliable.

Will be bringing in my bird feeders at work on Thursday just in case.

I think the netweather forum is probably good for lively discussions.
For the most reliable information I would use the met office, but click on further details under the weather warnings, so that you get the chief forecaster view. The met office twitter does some quite nice stuff sometimes.

Models seem to be alternating in swathes between the midlands peak wind scenario and the southern county peak wind scenario, with at least one being a channel slider.

I'm off to bed now. Sleep well all.

following, we're in the SW.

Morning all. I've just updated the Dudley thread. Eunice is still more complex but hopefully today we will see a bit more clarity.

We have three concerns really. I'll address each of them in turn.

Wind: Models are still bringing in a range of results. One in particular stands out to watch - the UK Met model shows a period of wind gusts 90-100mph running through the Bristol channel. Then 80-85mph mph gusts right across the SE, London and East Anglia and briefly through the Midlands. I think this is the most extreme model but hopefully, the least likely.

GFS shows a very similar pattern but a little less extreme. Gusts to around 90mph through the Bristol channel, gusts 70-80mph in central southern England and to 85mph through East Anglia.

UKV shows gusts 90-100mph through the Bristol channel and around northern coasts of Wales. Gusts 70-80mph across the south and East Anglia. also a squeeze around Sheffield of 80-90mph. This is the most northerly solution.

Arpege - gusting 80-90mph through the Bristol channel, 70-85 through the south and southern Midlands, 80mph through London and 80-90mph through East Anglia.

I think amber warnings will go out later today and if this continues expect red warnings in places. These tend to go out close to the time as they have to be very certain. Red warnings for wind are very rare.

Another risk is tidal flooding up the Severn and Wye estuaries and some coastal flooding. www.gov.uk/government/news/environment-agency-warns-communities-along-severn-and-wye-estuaries-to-prepare-for-flooding-from-storm-eunice

There is a risk of snow for northern England and Scotland following Eunice, but I'm running out of capacity to quantify that risk.

In short - no hints of a downgrade yet. As things stand (it may still change) Eunice looks to pose a substantial threat. If you are in the areas mentioned lease pay attention to met office warnings and don't take risks. Clear your gardens of anything that may become a projectile, or at least make it safe.

I'll give a brief update at lunchtime after met office warnings update and we have a fresh set of model runs.