Potential severe heatwave next week. (week of 21st July)

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Something to really watch. GFS model is really looking a bit crackers next week with high temps of perhaps 35c mid week and night minima in the mid 20s. I'll post more tomorrow, but it doesn't look like the traditional school holiday cool down

Not as crackers, temps perhaps in the mid 20s, but just like England's forecast it is varying quite a lot at the moment.

Got the marquee up for shade already, paddling pool ready and UV suits for DD but am really hoping that it won't last. Fingers crossed it's a short heat wave!

Yes, hopefully just a few days.

Kitten, you mean gird myself for original forecast of boiling all week?

Great. I am in London for work all next week in a hotel with no air con.

Prepared how? It’s forecast to be 28 one day here with temps 24 either side. Hot yes but hardly life threatening. When I was in Australia and it was in low 40s... life went on.

Pip, everyone doesn’t live in the same place. I’ve got 32 for 3 days
and mum and I both have health conditions that are aggravated by heat. She is 80 and having a range of hospital appointments. The wards are particularly hot as I recall from my days when dad had cancer. So fingers crossed she doesn’t need admission for observation again....she’d probably just say no, bless her.

I also have to travel to my boiling office in a boiling tube. So I have to be prepared with various things, including a full set of asthma inhalers when I ordinarily just need to carry two.

Also Pip, Australian buildings and transport are built for high temperatures. Here in the U.K. everything is built to keep heat in. It's really unpleasant, especially on the London Underground.

It is always weird when people cite another country. My mum comes from a hot country but that doesn’t change how London is set up for this weather!

I'm not going to justify why predicted record breaking or near record breaking temperatures are life threatening every time I post a thread about hot weather. It gets tedious. There is a couple of links people can look at if they would like more information.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/#?tab=heatHealth (bear in mind they tend to not set up alerts until they are near certain)

www.nhs.uk/livewell/summerhealth/documents/looking%20after%20yourself%20and%20others%20during%20hot%20weather2010.pdf

If after reading those you feel it's not a problem, then that is your prerogative, but don't be bull headed about it.

So GFS has backed away today from the extreme heat and showing temperatures of around 32c. In central London temperatures and places like Heathrow airport are often 2 degrees higher. The model is also less keen to keep the real heat for more than a couple of days.

As a note GFS is a model that is run 4 times a day. Each model run is set off multiple times with slightly different starting points. You can see from the photo these runs. As you can see the operational run diverges significantly from the control run, with many members staying very hot indeed. So there is still a huge amount of uncertainty for next weeks forecast.

I should add that although the extreme figures have gone from the main forecast today, night minima look to be very high on Tuesday with minima perhaps not going below 20c.

And just to show how different it can be in different parts of the country, this is how the next few days are shaping up for us:

Several people died in Spain and France during the extreme heatwave only a few weeks ago so extreme heat is definitely something to be wary of.... Not to mention the 15.000 killed in France during the 2003 heatwave (hope I got the year right).

Glad to heat that the extreme figures have gone, lets hope this doesn't change.

Urgh just seen this. I'm in London. Meant to be 32c in London on Tuesday next week, vile.

Hate hot weather.

The temperatures where I am have put my life at risk this week because of my medical conditions - it was 28c Monday (possibly higher as I couldn't get out when it as hottest). If it wasn't for a thread on here and the lovely supportive people on it I'd be in a much worse way mentally (and I'm not in a good place anyway).

Since then it's been mid 20s (that's actually where I am not using met office or other sites because there are none actually local to me). More than that and I'm looking at not recovering each day. As it is most of the day is spent in bed resting/being ill.

My medical condition means my blood vessels remain dilated and so blood gets trapped in my legs and I end up having seizures and blackouts and very high risk for heart attack/stroke. There is no treatment for me anymore - hospital told me to learn mindfulness to cope and put up with it. It's really bad, I'm far from alone with it, though I've a severe form, hot weather, even constant low 20s like we've had here really does put people's lives at risk.

On the other thread someone asked me what happens to people in hot countries with my condition, well mostly it's unheard of because it kills much faster usually in childhood. In some countries it can be helped because of air con but still higher chances of death.

The met office have tweeted a forecast temp of 34c for next week. I'll have a look in a bit.

Wednesday still looks to be the peak of the heat. First Screenshot shows the latest GFS model output for Wednesday, the second shows the high temperatures retreating on Thursday (but look at those temps in France and Belgium!), by Friday, at the moment it looks much more comfortable but perhaps becoming showery.

Not a lot has changed since this morning. Highs potentially of 35c in parts of southern central and SE areas Tuesday or Wednesday, with an accompanying risk of thunderstorms on Tuesday night.

When will we have a rough idea about Friday/Saturday? I'm camping in the west highlands.

Thanks Kitten
I’ve still got Thursday showing as the worst of it - North London. All, Wednesday and Thursday showing at 32 with a drop to 24 on Friday.

So if Wednesday turns out to be the peak, I’ll be pleased.

It’s not really severe is it, be nice to be warm for a day or so.

Gah, just cursed myself! Checked AccuWeather, thunder showers are predicted. Poo. Ach well, we can be prepared.

It’s not really severe is it, be nice to be warm for a day or so.

It's July, it's always warm.

Yikes, we are driving through eastern France and Belgium from Wed next week, looks like it's going to be hotter than hell! And to think we thought we'd picked somewhere that was actually a bit more bearable than the Med as none of us like the heat 😨

It's July, it's always warm.
Not where I am it’s only 21!