Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

[GloriaSmud]

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

I’m hoping for another cold one

I wonder how Aeolus will change the forecasting landscape:

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/science/2018/aug/23/satellite-aeolus-launched-space-map-earth-winds

As it's the meteorological start of Autumn today, updated thoughts...

Long range from Netweather.
And from TheWeatherOutlook.

Thanks Gloria, interesting how they both mention that November could be colder than normal, do you think we will see a colder winter after having such a warm summer or doesn't it work that way? Thanks

leesmum ~ I've been 'mulling over' the weather patterns that we had last winter and thinking how similar they are when it comes to the summer we've had e.g. high pressure over us, blocking rain systems from the west. I think if the quiet weather we've had continues through the next few months, then I suppose it makes sense, especially if Europe goes cold as well that we could get another cold winter. It'll be interesting to see what happens to the Polar Vortex/if we have another SSW which affects things over our part of the world as well.

The rest of the year could be interesting to watch to see how things develop!

This morning I have opened the curtains to see a pink sky. Are we bypassing Autumn then and going straight into winter?

Ignore me, I'm too asleep. Am I looking at the sunrise?

I think at that time, neffall, it was probably the sunrise!

I notice that the express have moved from 'KILLER HEATWAVE' style headlines to 'plunging into early winter' stories.
They do make me laugh.

More from TheWeatherOutlook. They have their thoughts on Christmas 2018 here and here.

BBC are talking about El
Nino for winter

I can't figure out what means

Colder or warmer than usual?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45471409

Womaningreen ~ There's a good explanation here on El Niño and La Niña.

This weather model is going for a blocked winter ~ so could possibly be another cold one.

Thanks Gloria

The bbc reference to 2015/16 confused me too as I don't recall it being particularly cold.

I'm starting to pay more attention again to weather forecasts as winter approaches (with summer, I am only generally looking a day or 2 ahead - is it warm, wet or windy and does that change the clothes needed for camps - with winter I need to think slightly more strategically and plan the week ahead and maybe longer).

Early signals are that really summery clothes are already packed away, and I am no longer wearing shorts (I was until late September last year) but the water is starting to increase again and the ground is not so parched.

I'm still not convinced about buying a new pair of snowboots yet though....

Updated thoughts from TheWeatherOutlook.

Could be some chilly mornings this week. 1.7C this morning and the heating's come on

It was 0 degrees on Monday when we woke up, but has warmed up a little again (I didn't get to look the other mornings but the car was 13.5 degrees this morning, compared to 5 on Monday, leaving at the same time).

High level scattered clouds with lots of sunshine today. Forecasters talking about very little rain in the foreseeable future - potentially not good for reservoirs needing refilling still. But they do seem to have recovered somewhat compared to the summer very low levels.

We had some cold nights at the start of the week, then a windy 14c last night and weirdly warm at 18c now when it's dark and 8pm.
I love the nights drawing in. I get to my bed much earlier and all the leaves are starting to look very pretty.

We didn't realise until the school run yesterday morning, that the temperatures had been so low that we'd had a frost, so there was some mild scraping of car windscreens. After tomorrow, it looks like there might be some more cold nights/frosts coming so the ice scraper might be needed quite a few times in the next few weeks!

gloria what are your personal thoughts on this winter? I thought it wouldn’t be like last winter but on the radio today they were saying November will be Baltic and bets were being taken for a white Christmas...

Ilmb ~ I think if things stay as calm as they are now, with not a lot in the way of low pressure systems coming from the west then yes, we could see a cold winter. Whether that means snow is another matter though but as I've seen it said on many weather forums, once the cold's in place, then what falls from the sky could possibly be the white stuff!

Thanks Gloria. What do you think of the guy who does the weather from nature? Can’t remember his name just now but he goes on this morning sometimes, he looks at berries, plants, birds etc. It’s fascinating and he’s always been spot on BUT he didn’t predict the 2 month drought this year..

Dave King?

Yeah that’s the one. He’s fascinating! He’s always got it spot on apart from the 2 month drought this summer. He doesn’t think the Winter will be that cold etc

This chap?
I've seen on some weather forums, posters totally dismiss what he has to say. For me, I'm not sure whether hedgerow plants/fruits etc can be used in a big way to say what the coming months will bring, as how they're growing now is down to how the past Spring/summer has been but the rest of it is interesting and (apart from his forecast for the summer we've just had), he seems to have quite a good success rate!