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Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19

265 replies

GloriaSmud · 14/08/2018 11:08

TheWeatherOutlook have some early thoughts on Winter 2018 here and Autumn here.

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GloriaSmud · 09/11/2018 19:23

SW Travel News ~ quite a lot going on.

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birdsofafeather · 09/11/2018 19:40

I really dislike stormy weather
I'm in West sussex and feel really worried

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 09/11/2018 20:30

ah, don't be worried birds. Round your way, though it's very windy, it shouldn't be damaging. The first storm of the season always sounds worse than it is.

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Believeitornot · 09/11/2018 21:56

I’m in West Sussex. Sounds worse inside than outside (was driving in it about 30 mins ago!)

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GloriaSmud · 11/11/2018 07:31

Signs of colder things to come?

Metoffice Outlook from Thursday onwards....

UK Outlook for Thursday 15 Nov 2018 to Saturday 24 Nov 2018:
Mostly dry on Thursday, but quite cloudy for some with the best of the bright or sunny spells in the southeast and to the lee of high ground. Rain may persist in the far northwest for a time. Overnight mist and fog patches are possible which will be slow to clear on Friday morning. Through the end of the week mild, dry weather looks set to extend across many areas with rain confined to northwestern parts. Early mist and fog may become more prevalent across the south and eastern, while windier conditions will reduce this risk in the northwest. However, there is a greater chance for overnight frosts in the north. These drier than average conditions may continue through the end of the period, with temperatures gradually returning to normal.

UK Outlook for Sunday 25 Nov 2018 to Sunday 9 Dec 2018:
During the last week of November and into early December the weather will probably still be predominantly settled, although with an increased chance of some more unsettled interludes with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures will generally be below average allowing for an increased chance of snow over northern hills during any unsettled spells. Lower than average temperatures will also bring a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. Any milder interludes will probably be short-lived.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 11/11/2018 09:20

That's interesting Gloria. At the end of the gfs run this morning a blocking high forms over eastern Europe with us on the edge of it.

In the meantime, fog looks like it could be a bit of an issue.

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GloriaSmud · 11/11/2018 14:41

I saw the high pressure forming at the end of the run and wondered if this could be the start of something....

Winter is coming

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GloriaSmud · 12/11/2018 07:55

This mornings Outlook from the metoffice....

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 16 Nov 2018 to Sunday 25 Nov 2018:
Friday and the weekend look mostly dry with variable, sometimes large amounts of cloud, with the brightest conditions likely to the north of high ground and possibly more generally across northern and north-eastern parts of the British Isles. Overnight mist and fog patches are possible, which could be slow to clear. The only exception will be western Scotland and perhaps parts of Northern Ireland which may see some wet and windy weather, chiefly at first. After a locally chilly start, daytime temperatures will again be mild. During the following week little change is expected to the weather. The far west and northwest could have some patchy rain, whilst the majority hold onto settled conditions. However, a general drop in temperature is forecast, with an increasing risk of night frost.

UK Outlook for Monday 26 Nov 2018 to Monday 10 Dec 2018:
This period is likely to begin with a continuation of the mainly dry conditions, with variable cloud and some sunshine, once morning fog patches clear. However, there will be an increasing chance of some more unsettled interludes developing, with showers or longer spells of rain spreading to many areas at times. Temperatures are likely to be below average overall, with a marked increase in the likelihood and extent of frosts. These colder conditions will be accompanied by an increased chance of snow, particularly for northern hills, during any spells of more unsettled weather.

They're almost wetting themselves with excitement on the Netweather message boards! (Over the possible cold that could be coming.)

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BiddyPop · 12/11/2018 08:35

I'm not impressed with the forecasters after this weekend. Yes it was torrential rain on Friday, as predicted. But Saturday was due to be dry, apart from a small chance of light rain in the late evening. But it poured down on us as we gathered the Cubs from their doting parents, who were looking at us like we were nuts going hillwalking. Luckily, it did mostly dry enough for the walking, but there was more torrential rain on Saturday evening (so the Cubs got soaked while out exploring at the hostel!) and then there STILL was the light rain which went on longer than forecast in the later evening while we were trying to have a campfire. And then more yesterday.....right about the time the Cubs were due home (I was back in the Scout Den by then doing a 1st aid course, I abandoned the Cubs to the other leaders from breakfast time).

It was like walking through a river coming down the mountain, not a grassy field....

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 12/11/2018 09:15

Various surface troughs developed over the weekend. It was certainly more lively than I'd anticipated.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 12/11/2018 09:17

It is quite funny how excited they are getting on twitter too.

The possibility of below average temperatures interests me, but it is winter and at least some cold should generally be expected.

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GloriaSmud · 12/11/2018 18:38
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 12/11/2018 20:42

There's a bit of hopecasting in that post but it was an interesting read.

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BlackeyedGruesome · 12/11/2018 21:55

We had thunder and lightning after school today.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 13/11/2018 07:29

Twitter are continuing to ramp up the cold forecasts this am.

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birdsofafeather · 13/11/2018 07:57

Nooooooo
Please no snow

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GloriaSmud · 13/11/2018 09:49

TheWeatherOutlook are using the words 'a wintry outlook' this morning.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 13/11/2018 22:22

I think they are right to, increasing model consistency for a sharp drop in temperatures next week.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 20/11/2018 08:42

I've updated the snow watch thread for today.
Longer term we do look to be seeing a general trend towards average or below average temps for the time being. So far, apart from one stormy patch, it's been a very quiet autumn.

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BiddyPop · 20/11/2018 21:27

We may not have snow yet, but it’s significantly colder today with a real feel of 1degree (easterly wind makes it worse). And torrential rain - on and off all day. Even had 2 close by flashes of lightening tonight too. But seems calmer again now.

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GloriaSmud · 24/11/2018 18:17

Think there might be some weather warning/s for wind/rain for some areas for Wednesday. Possible wind gusts 3pm.

Autumn 2018/Winter 2018/19
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OhYouBadBadKitten · 24/11/2018 22:54

yup, I think you are right Gloria.

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TokyoSushi · 26/11/2018 18:23

What's happening with Storm Diana @OhYouBadBadKitten @GloriaSmud ?

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 26/11/2018 18:34

It's been named has it?
I've started a new thread on it, so it stands out more :)

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GloriaSmud · 26/11/2018 19:01

I read yesterday, think it was the Portuguese metoffice that have named it this time.

@TokyoSushi ~ link here for OYBBK's storm thread.

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